As for Houston and Jacksonville, the Jaguars are moving forward after the disastrous Urban Meyer era but still have potential franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Texans aren’t sure what they have in Davis Mills, but they apparently saw enough last year to give him another chance with new head coach Lovie Smith–a hire that didn’t exactly capture the imagination of the fans in Houston, who are hoping the franchise can rebound from losing Deshaun Watson.
Will the division be just as top-heavy in 2022? Let’s take a look at the schedule and the win totals, starting with “Matty Ice’s” new team.
This number recently jumped up to 10 from 9.5. The Colts have plenty to be excited about on offense, as the NFL’s leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor, returns for his third season after picking up 1,811 yards and scoring 18 touchdowns last year. Indy may not have to rely on him as much due to the acquisition of Matt Ryan at quarterback–a significant upgrade over Carson Wentz.
Expect Ryan to be motivated to try and get back to the Super Bowl after his Falcons didn’t make it back to the playoffs following that embarrassing Super Bowl loss to New England. A more traditional passing game should take the pressure off of Taylor to produce, but that may make him even more dangerous.
The beginning of the schedule is lining up to be a very important part of the Colts season, as they have some huge games in the first seven weeks. After opening the season in Houston, a big test will come in Week 2 at Jacksonville. The Colts were the Jags’ only win in 2020 and also laid an egg in Jacksonville last year in a game they needed to reach the playoffs. If they can get to 2-0 by breaking their Jacksonville curse, that will be a very good sign.
Two tough home contests follow with Kansas City and Tennessee coming to Lucas Oil Stadium, followed by a Thursday nighter at Denver, home against the Jags, and at Tennessee. A 5-2 record through seven games with all three division road games wrapped up is a distinct possibility for the Colts and will give them an advantage going into the rest of the season.
Some difficult games await (at Dallas and at New England, for example), but the end of the season features games at the New York Giants and home against Houston in Week 18.
Indy lost to the Titans twice last year, but Tennessee doesn’t feel as strong, and it’s hard to imagine another loss to Jacksonville. That’s at least two wins on top of the nine they won last year, so topping double digits seems reasonable to predict.
Prediction: Over 10 Wins
The Titans have won at least nine games in each of Mike Vrabel’s first three years as head coach, but after reaching the AFC Championship game three years ago, Tennessee is 0-2 in the playoffs despite winning the AFC South in back-to-back years.
Their number, however, went from 9.5 to 9 after the NFL Draft, right when they traded top receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia. Brown was replaced quickly by rookie Treylon Burks out of the University of Arkansas, but he and Robert Woods now lead a revamped receiving corps.
The Titans will hope Derrick Henry remains healthy, but they did win 12 games despite Henry missing a large chunk of the season a year ago. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill will also have to step up if Tennessee wants to make some noise in the postseason, but we’re talking the regular season in this article.
By virtue of having the best record in the AFC last year, plus the nature of the matchups out of the division, Tennessee has some tough road games this year, including at Buffalo and Indianapolis within the first four weeks.
Other road games include at Green Bay, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and the LA Chargers. Things playing in the Titans’ favor are four games with Jacksonville and Houston and games against the NFC East, which can realistically net three wins.
Yes, the schedule is tough, but the Titans are a good team, and nine wins would equal a 9-8 record. They should be better than that, but it’s almost assured that they won’t be worse.
Prediction: Over 9 Wins
The 2021 season was an outright disaster for Jacksonville. New head coach Urban Meyer was supposed to lend some credibility and stability to the Jaguars, but instead, he was embroiled in controversy nearly from the beginning and was fired midway through the season.
The good news for Jacksonville is quarterback Trevor Lawrence is still there and is part of a young core on offense that includes new acquisition Christian Kirk at wide receiver. Head coach Doug Peterson isn’t far removed from a Super Bowl title in Philadelphia.
The season starts with three of four on the road. The opener at Washington and a motivated Week 4 game at Philadelphia, however, could provide the Jags with an early win. Three winnable home games against the Texans, Giants, and Raiders follow that.
Problem is, Jacksonville has won more than six games just once in the last 11 seasons. Have they improved enough this offseason to get four more wins than a year ago? Not likely.
Prediction: Under 6.5 Wins
Houston went 4-13 last year and played some games where they were more competitive than expected but also had some embarrassingly one-sided results. Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead come in at running back and could succeed behind Davis Mills, but the true test of the team will be how Mills is in his second year at quarterback. Lovie Smith also had success with Chicago but not with Tampa Bay or the University of Illinois over the past decade or so.
Let’s go through the schedule and see how Houston can get to five wins. An 0-2 start is likely based on hosting Indianapolis and then playing at Denver in Week 2, but with games at Chicago and at Jacksonville, there’s a winnable road game or two before a Week 6 bye. Let’s assume 1-4 at that point.
The next win you can somewhat see is home against Washington in Week 11, and then possibly Week 13 against Cleveland with a motivated Texans team hosting Deshaun Watson’s Browns. The Jaguars in Week 17 also provide a chance for a win at home.
That’s four wins, assuming they beat the Browns in a game where Houston will probably be an underdog. It’s appearing that the third four-win season in a row is a distinct possibility for the Texans.
Prediction: Under 4.5 Wins
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