NFL Week 12 Prop Bets: Fade the Dolphins O, Bet Big on Bijan

We had another productive outing last week. C.J. Stroud and Tyreek Hill played like they normally do, and if you followed our advice, you made money off of that. We do apologize about the Browns suggestion. We didn’t know at the time that DeShaun Watson would be out for the season. Let’s move forward. Here are the three best player/team prop bets for Thanksgiving weekend, aka Week 12 of the NFL season.

At this point, everyone knows how lethal the Miami Dolphins can be on offense, even though they haven’t proven it against a great team. Miami averages the most points in the league and have surpassed the 30-point threshold in half of its games this season. Last week, the Dolphins only scored 20, but they still found a way to win.

On Black Friday, we’re expecting a similar result. The Dolphins travel to the New York Jets with their team/over under set at 25.5 points. FanDuel Sportsbook has the under at -106 odds. We suggest taking this bet. Gang Green’s defense struggled last week, but that’s not the norm.

For all the struggles with New York’s offense, the same cannot be said about its defense. The Jets are 11th in points and yards-allowed per-game this season. They’ve also had a knack for disrupting top quarterbacks in the league. Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert have all had mediocre-to-poor performances against New York. Only Herbert’s Chargers went over 25.5 points, but that was because of a punt-return touchdown at the beginning of the game. 

Do we believe Miami will still win? Absolutely. Barring a miraculous Tim Boyle performance, the Dolphins shouldn’t have much trouble taking care of business. All we’re saying is Miami’s offense could run into some speed bumps along the way. 

Bijan Robinson is arguably the most talented running back in football. Yes, we said it. Robinson was drafted No. 8 overall in the 2023 draft for a reason. He’s special. However, it sometimes looks like Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith is content to just make Bijan a decoy. A couple weeks ago, Smith finally decided to use Robinson in the red zone. Spoiler alert: it worked.

We’re hopeful coach Smith will use Bijan this Sunday against the New Orleans Saints. Robinson’s over/under is 59.5 rushing yards at Underdog Fantasy. We really like the over on this total. 

Here’s why we’re hopeful Bijan will get the ball: the Saints aren’t great defending the run. New Orleans gives up over 113 rush yards-per-game. The caveat is a running back has only gone over 59.5 yards three times against the Saints this season. However, Jonathan Taylor had no trouble doing so a few weeks ago. Great players find a way.

Please, Arthur Smith: For the sake of sports bettors and fantasy football players, give Bijan Robinson the ball. If Bijan sees enough carries, he shouldn’t have much trouble hitting the over.

Sidelines’ NFL Week 12 Best Bets: Steelers, Giants, and More

Usually, we’re not advocates for betting on bad teams. But, we never said anything about good players on bad teams, right? So, we’re going that route with Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner this week. Plus, Arizona hasn’t been all that bad since Kyler Murray returned two games ago.

Conner’s over/under is 61.5 yards. We like the over on this one. Conner usually hits that total anyway, and he’s got a good matchup this week against the Los Angeles Rams. 

The Pro Bowl running back has played in seven games this season. Conner has surpassed 61.5 yards on five of those occasions. Twice he has gone over that total by literally half a yard, but hey, it still counts. Good start.

Now, the Rams. Their run defense isn’t awful, but it’s not particularly good either. L.A. gives up over 117 yards-per-game on the ground, which is 11th worst in the league. A running back has gone over 61.5 yards in six of its 10 games this season. The Rams run defense is certainly gettable. Conner typically has success rushing, and Los Angeles more often than not allows players to reach the total above. A bet on the over should be successful.