The Way-Too-Early Top 4 Futures Bets for Next NFL Season

The NFL season just ended this week, which means one thing: it’s already time to talk about next season. One of the beautiful things about betting is that there’s never an offseason, next season’s NFL futures odds were out right after the Super Bowl and there’s already value to be had. Let’s look through the four best futures odds to win Super Bowl LVI and also give you a few teams to stay away from at this point. 

4. Seahawks +2200

The offseason has barely started and the Seahawks already figure to have a dramatic offseason. Russell Wilson’s people have already leaked to the press that Wilson is frustrated by Seattle’s never-ending offensive line woes. Wilson was sacked 47 times this season and then five more in Seattle’s playoff loss to the Rams. 

Obviously, if Wilson forces his way out of Seattle then there is no future number where the Seahawks are an attractive bet. But, if you want to bet that Seattle will feel the pressure to retool their offensive line and maybe add another offensive piece to aid Wilson, then +2200 doesn’t seem high at all. 

Wilson will turn 33 next season and coach Pete Carroll will turn 70 in September, this the definition of a win-now team. As badly as things ended, Wilson was the best player in the NFL through Week 8 and any team with Russ will have had a hard time missing the playoffs, so +2200 seems like a gift, if you assume Wilson is just posturing for OL help. 

3. Bills +1200

The Bills looked like they could win this year’s Super Bowl at times, but perhaps they were one year too early. Buffalo has Josh Allen, almost certainly a top five QB in the league right now, while the rest of their division has their most important position in flux. The Jets and Dolphins figure to be the two most aggressive suitors for Deshaun Watson and might move on from their current starters and draft a QB with their top-three draft picks, Sam Darnold and Tua Tagovailoa even if they are unsuccessful in their pursuits. Meanwhile, many expect New England to move on from Cam Newton but they don’t have the top draft pick or trade assets to easily land a better QB.

All this is to say, that the Bills have a chance to run away with the AFC East and there’s no reason to think that they can’t improve next season. Buffalo primarily will need to replace some aging defenders like Josh Norman in free agency and might be able to add another offensive weapon to go along with Stefon Diggs and Co. on offense. The Bills figure to be the biggest thorn in the Chiefs’ side for years to come and +1200 is a fair price to pay when you are hoping next year is the year they topple Kansas City. 

2. Vikings +4000

On paper this might seem like an incredibly unexciting pick. Minnesota is one of the more consistent teams in the league, winning 8, 10, and 7 games in the past three seasons. The Vikings have never won a Super Bowl and haven’t even made it to a Super Bowl since the 1976 season. So, how would Minnesota turn from an average team to a title contender? To start, Justin Jefferson had one of the best rookie WR seasons ever, catching 88 passes for 1,400 yards. The Jefferson-Adam Thielen-Dalvin Cook trio is one of the best in the league and Kirk Cousins is coming off a 35 TD, 13 INT season. 

But, there are a pair of key metrics that point to a massive jump in improvement for Minnesota in 2021. The Vikings got only two games combined out of their top four pass rushers, including Danielle Hunter who missed the entire season after compiling 29 sacks the past two seasons. Only three teams allowed more points than the Vikings, but next season they should revert to, at least, a league-average unit. Additionally, Minnesota’s special teams were historically bad, but special teams often have massive variance from year-to-year, so they shouldn’t have the same issues next season. The +4000 number just seems low for a team virtually guaranteed to get better. 

1. Browns +2500

Even if you write off the Chiefs terrible Super Bowl loss as completely the fault of a decimated offensive line, it’s worth noting that the Browns played Kansas City close even with Eric Fischer starting at left tackle. 

There are legitimate reasons to think Cleveland will be better in 2021 than in 2020. Baker Mayfield should continue improving in Year 4, and does not yet have a bloated contract that will hamper Cleveland’s cap situation. The team arguably had the league’s best offensive line; Pro Football Focus ranked it number one, and should return all five starters next season. 

Rashard Higgins is the only significant skill position player who is a free agent, but they have the money to re-sign him or an equivalent third receiver and Cleveland will get back Odell Beckham Jr. who missed nine games this season. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the best 1-2 running punch in the NFL and are still in their primes. 

On defense, Cleveland will need to re-sign or replace several linebackers or defensive backs, but the core of the unit, led by star Myles Garrett are all set to return. Cleveland will have some tough games on their schedule, like trips to Kansas City and Green Bay, but they will also host Detroit, Houston, Denver, and, of course, Cincinnati. The +2500 just seems a little too high for a team that won a playoff game this season and figures to get better.  

Teams to avoid right now

1. San Francisco +1400: What do the oddsmakers know that we don’t? The Niners should improve next year, but how do they have the seventh best odds in the NFL?

2. New England +3000: There’s a better chance that the Patriots are in last place next season than there is that they win a playoff game. 

3. L.A. Rams +1200: The Matthew Stafford trade makes them better, but does it make them a top five team in the NFL, like these odds would lead you to believe? No, c’mon.