It is a football fan’s dream come true, for the first time in decades, there will be six playoff games in one football weekend. The betting opportunities are endless, so let’s go over the best bet to make on each of the six playoff games.
No team was better against the spread this season than the Bills, who were 11-5 ATS. The Bills covered their average spread by an average of 5.6 points, easily the best number in the league. Since Buffalo’s bye in Week 11, they have won six games in a row, all by double digits. During that stretch the Bills have also not scored under 26 points in a game.
In a shocking statistic, the Colts have only been underdogs one time all season, in Cleveland in Week 5, where they lost 32-23. Indy has failed to cover in their last three games, beating Houston by a touchdown as -7.5 favorites, then losing outright as favorites against Pittsburgh in Week 16, and beating the Jaguars by 14 when they were -15.5 last week.
The Bet: Bills (-6.5, -106) over the Colts (Unibet)
These teams faced off just two weeks ago in Seattle, with the Seahawks winning 20-9. While the Rams did defeat the Seahawks in November, the Seahawks have reinvented themselves as a defense-first team these past 2 months, having not allowed more than 23 points in a game since Week 8 against Buffalo.
On the offensive side of the ball, Seattle’s once vaunted scoring attack has only scored more than 28 points once since that Buffalo game, when they put up 40 points on the Jets. While they beat the Jets 40-3, the Rams would lose to the 0-13 Jets by a score of 23-20 the following week. That game was with Jared Goff starting for the Rams, and the QB may not play on Saturday. You should feel comfortable taking the Seahawks at -3.5 if Goff is playing, but giving only 3.5 points to John Wolford, playing a road playoff game, is not an opportunity that comes around every day.
The Bet: Seahawks (-3.5, -104) over the Rams (FanDuel)
To cover a 8.5 point spread, the Bucs will be trying to do something that no one has done in three months: beat Washington by more than 7 points. After the WFT suffered four straight losses by two touchdowns or more from Weeks 2 through 5, Washington has gone 6-5, with five one loss scores.
Tampa is also playing their best football of the season, winning all four games in December by a combined 73 points. The Bucs have lost their last three games against playoff teams, however, getting destroyed 38-3 by the Saints and losing by matching 27-24 scores to the Rams and Chiefs. Washington is not an ordinary playoff team, having gone 7-9 this season, and Alex Smith looks less than 100%. The play here is to give the 8.5 points and hope this game is over by halftime, like many Bucs games have been recently.
The Bet: Bucs (-8.5, -110) over Washington (FanDuel)
The Ravens are 3.5 point road favorites against a team they’ve already lost to at home this season. Both teams have been playing well, as Baltimore has won five games in a row, while Tennessee went 6-2 during the second half of the season. During the Ravens win streak, they have covered in all five games, with four of them featuring spreads of at least 8.5 points. The Titans have had success as an underdog this season, beating the Colts by 19 as +3 ‘dogs, beating Buffalo by 26 when Tennessee was +3, and defeating the Ravens 30-24 when the Titans were +6.
This is a game featuring arguably two of the four best teams in the AFC, along with the Chiefs and Bills, and the Ravens and Titans are relatively evenly matched, so why not take the home underdog getting 3.5 points? If you’d rather look for a number closer to -100, you can grab the Titans at +3.
The Bet: Titans (+3, -100) to cover against the Ravens (Borgata)
The Bears were 1-6 against playoff teams this season, including a 26-23 home loss in overtime to the Saints in Week 8. New Orleans went 3-2 against teams that made the playoffs. The Bears should go into this game with some degree of confidence from their previous encounter considering Nick Foles was behind center and since Mitch Trubisky returned to the lineup he has played with a renewed purpose.
Though Trubisky struggled last week against the Packers, he has completed over 68.5% of his passes in five consecutive games. Meanwhile, Drew Brees has had some excellent games as of late (3 TD, 0 INT against the Panthers last week), but he has also had games where he looks like a guy turning 42 years old next Friday (0 TD, 2 INT against the Vikings).
The Saints have covered six of the past seven times they’ve been favored, while the Bears have lost all four times they were 4+ point underdogs, failing to cover in four of those five games. But, the only time they did cover? It was against the Saints as +5.5 underdogs. The Saints are going to win the game, but this -10 line is just way too big.
The Bet: Bears to cover (+10, -110) against the Saints (William Hill)
No team was more affected on the field by their opponents COVID outbreaks this season than the Pittsburgh Steelers and that trend continues this week as the Browns are set to play a Sunday night playoff game, while potentially not having practiced all week.
The good news for Cleveland is that these teams have played twice already this season, so the Browns might need less scouting time than against a new opponent. The bad news for the Browns is that they barely beat Pittsburgh last week, when the team rested Ben Roethlisberger and several other starters. Even worse news? The last time these teams played in Pittsburgh, in Week 6, the Steelers beat the Browns 38-7.
Cleveland is 6-10 ATS this season, a particularly poor mark for a playoff team, and Pittsburgh covered the -3 in the 38-7 blowout, then easily covered last week as +10.5 underdogs. It might be asking too much for a team with zero playoff experience, playing without their head coach after a week of Zoom meetings to beat the Steelers, and that’s why the Steelers are our best bet of the week to cover the -6 line.
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