NFL Week 4 Picks: How Much Do You Really Like Football?

Before we get to our NFL Week 4 picks, a question: How much do you really like football? It’s an easy question, but it requires a follow-up.

What would it take for you to watch only one game this weekend, but it has to be Broncos vs. Bears? Your favorite team? Nope. Coach Prime vs. USC? Sorry. Been waiting all day for Sunday night? Keep waiting.

When last we saw these two teams, the Broncos let the Dolphins turn the end zone into a Conga line, and the Bears were getting dismantled by the Kansas City Swifties.

Now that we’ve appeased the SEO gods…football. You will not see a recommendation on Broncos vs. Bears. The lesson to learn here comes from this classic War Games clip.

Sorry, this classic War Games clip.

On to the picks. These aren’t predictions; they’re spoilers.

This week marks the beginning of the NFL’s International Series, with the Jaguars playing their annual game in London (they actually play there back-to-back weeks). The Jags go across the pond hoping to keep their Week 3 performance in Customs. When you give up a touchdown on a muffed kickoff to a fullback, it’s not your day.

The Jaguars face a Falcons team that has just simply played better football over the first three weeks. A tough week in Detroit to be sure, but Atlanta is 2-1 and holding teams to 170 yards passing per game. With the Jaguars’ offense not clicking, and both teams needing more time to travel, taking the points is the prudent move.

THE PLAY: Falcons +3 (+100 on Caesars)

Last week, we gave you Houston +9.5 in Jacksonville. The line closed at +7.5. Houston won by 20. Clearly, we sold the Texans short.

C.J. Stroud has been masterful, becoming the only rookie QB to throw for at least 900 yards without an interception in his first three games.

The Texans host the Steelers, who are 2-1 despite ranking 27^th in total offense. They also had flight trouble returning from Las Vegas and will have another lengthy trip going to Houston. Take the hook while you can get it.

THE PLAY: Texans +3.5 (-117 on BetRivers)

No pro-wrestling reference in the title, so here’s George Kittle taking out The Miz.

Arizona has been arguably the biggest surprise of the season. They have led in the fourth quarter in all three games, and the Cards throttled the heavily-favored Cowboys in Week 3. They ran the ball down Dallas’ throat–to the tune of 222 yards. Joshua Dobbs also took advantage of Dallas being without Trevon Diggs, and ranks in the top 12 in both quarterback rating and QBR.

Did someone say QBR? Brock Purdy. Second in the NFL. Christian McCaffrey leads the league in rushing. The 49ers have four players with at least 11 catches.

Look for this game, with a double-digit line, to at least be an entertaining back-and-forth affair.

Play: Cardinals-49ers Over 43.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

This teaser plays off an early-season trend. Through three weeks, underdogs of three or fewer points are 11-5-2 ATS; 9-8 straight up. A healthy ROI whether you played the points or the ML.

The Rams (at Indianapolis) and Ravens (at Cleveland) are both short underdogs on the road. The Rams have a short week but are staying in the Midwest after Monday’s game in Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Ravens come off an overtime loss to the Colts, despite Gardner Minshew going full Orlovsky.

These games are likely to be close.

Play: Tease Rams to +7.5/Ravens to +8.5 (-120 on DraftKings)

This season (almost) could not have started out worse for the New York Giants. Losing 40-0 at home to Dallas, and a 30-12 drubbing to the 49ers. Tucked in between was a game in which they trailed 28-7. Then they made their biggest comeback in team history, sneaking past Arizona in Week 2.

Week 4 presents a challenge on Monday night against Seattle. This is a break for the Giants. Dallas and San Francisco rank third and fourth, respectively, in the NFL in total defense. The Seahawks? Not as good at 30^th.

Saquon Barkley will have had an additional 11 days to recover from an ankle injury, and Daniel Jones will have more time to throw against a team with only five sacks in three games. Expect the Giants offense to thrive under the lights.

Play: Giants TT Over 23.5 (-112 on DraftKings)

Week 3: 1-4

Season: 7-8