NFL Week 3 Prop Bets: Lawrence, Jacobs, Bears Bounce Back

As expected, offenses started to show more life in Week 2 of the 2023 campaign. Of course, the sample size is too small to get an accurate gauge across the league, but some teams are definitely in better shape than others–we’re looking at you, Cincinnati. Let’s analyze the three best player/team prop bets for Week 3 of the NFL season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars offense looked borderline unstoppable in their week on victory over the Indianapolis Colts. But, the Jags were slowed down last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. Trevor Lawrence completed less than 54% of his passes for just 216 yards. Jacksonville scored a measly nine points.

This week, the Jaguars should have an easier matchup against the Houston Texans at home. Lawrence’s over/under passing total for the contest is 251.5 with -115 odds in either direction at FanDuel. We expect the Jacksonville signal caller to surpass that total.

Lawrence has yet to reach the 250 yard plateau this season. The last time he did so in a regular season game was in week 15 last season. We believe this is an anomaly. T-Law is a franchise quarterback in our eyes, and the Texans are ripe for the taking. Houston has allowed 28 points-per-game the last two weeks. Expect Lawrence to come out firing this Sunday.

The NFL’s leading rusher last season had a grand total of -2 rushing yards last week. Yes, you read that correctly. Josh Jacobs carried the ball nine times against the Buffalo Bills for -2 yards. In week one, Jacobs only had 48 yards on 19 attempts. A lowly 2.53 yards-per-carry. It hasn’t been the ideal start for the rushing champion.

Right now is the perfect opportunity to buy low on one of the game’s premier running backs. Jacobs has been on the field for at least 73% of the Vegas Raiders’ plays in each of the two games. It’s not as if the back is in the dog house. He’s just in a little funk. Jacobs’ over/under for rushing yards Sunday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers is 63.5 at BetMGM. We strongly suggest taking the over.

Jacobs is primed for a breakthrough against Pittsburgh. The Steelers run defense has given up the most yards in the league through two weeks. Sure, Pittsburgh faced Christian McCaffery in week one, but were then gashed by Nick Chubb before his injury. Jerome Ford then came in for Cleveland and had over 100 yards on the ground.

Part of this is because Steelers All-Pro Defensive lineman Cam Heyward is on the IR with a groin injury. Without him their run defense obviously suffers, and he’s not eligible to come back on Sunday night.

An over/under of 63.5 just seems too disrespectful for the man who averaged nearly 100 yards-a-contest last season. Jacobs is still only 25 years old so it’s hard to imagine he’s already in decline. Get ready for Jacobs to feast against a banged up Steelers defense.

Not much has gone right for the Chicago Bears to start this season. Chicago has scored under 20 points-per-game and have the second worst scoring defense in the NFL. To make matters worse, Chicago travels to Arrowhead to face Kansas City on Sunday. 0-3 looks highly probable for a team that had playoff aspirations this season.

The Bears over/under for their upcoming game is 16.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook with -125 odds to take the over. This is a solid bet. We’re not saying Chicago is going to win, but the team should come out desperate.

All signs point towards the Bears having another miserable week. Chicago has struggled on offense, meanwhile Kansas City has been among the league’s best through two weeks. However, the Chiefs have a tendency to play inferior teams closer than what people may think. 

Last season, K.C. had one score games against: Indianapolis, Vegas, Tennessee, Houston, and Denver twice. All those squads scored at least 17 points. It’s incredibly difficult to recover from an 0-3 start. We believe Chicago will come out ready to play.