NFL Week 14 Best Odds : Sidelines Picks and Predictions

6. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, -106) over the L.A. Chargers (FanDuel)

Like many games between teams out of playoff contention, the Falcons vs Chargers comes down to effort. The Falcons are playing very hard for interim coach Raheem Morris. Meanwhile, the Chargers seem to be hellbent on getting coach Anthony Lynn fired, which looks like a better than 50-50 chance after their 45-0 debacle at home against the Patriots last week.  

Here are the Falcons last seven results: 

Four wins, a close loss to the Saints, another loss to the Saints, and a one point loss to Detroit.

Here are the Chargers last seven results: 

Five losses, plus wins over the Jets and Jaguars, the two worst teams in the NFL. 

The Chargers only other win against the season was Week 1 against the Bengals, so they’ve only beaten the three worst teams in the AFC. These are teams in completely different places, Atlanta is fighting, the Chargers are mailing it in. 2.5 points seems low here, and the -106 is a great value, considering there is a real chance this game is not particularly close. 

5. Under 45.5 points (-115) in the New York Giants-Arizona Cardinals game (FanDuel)

Here are some over/under stats for the Giants:

1. The Giants have only played one game all season where more than 48 points were scored

2. They’ve only played two games all season that have gone over the 45.5 number

3. They have not played in a game where either team has topped 27 points in over two months

4. They’ve only topped 23 points all season

We could go on, but you get the point, the Giants play low-scoring games. Even the high scoring teams they’ve played have struggled, the Bucs scored 25, the Seahawks scored 12. Both of these teams are above average in terms of defensive points allowed and the Cardinals appear to be losing steam. This Giants vs Cardinals line is way too high, so grab it at 45.5 while it’s still there.

4. Denver Broncos (+3.5, +109) over the Carolina Panthers (888 Sport)

Both of these teams are 4-8. Both of these teams are 7-5 against the spread. Both teams have given the Chiefs a tough game recently only to ultimately lose. These teams are nearly identical. So, if either team is getting 3.5 points in this matchup you need to be on that side. Both of these teams are out of the playoff picture, but Broncos head coach Vic Fangio is coaching for his job and Denver QB Drew Lock is playing for his, so expect the Broncos to throw everything they have at Carolina in this matchup. 

3. Minnesota Vikings (+6.5, +109) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Draft Kings)

The Vikings vs Buccaneers is a de facto playoff game for both of these teams, as the loser may be on the outside of the NFC playoff picture with three games to go. The Vikings tend to play to the level of their competition, hence them beating the Packers in Lambeau, but losing to Dallas and needing overtime to beat the Jaguars. There is a better chance of the Vikings winning outright than the Bucs winning in a blowout, so you should feel comfortable with 6.5 points, this would be a good deal at 5.5 points. The Vikings moneyline is a decent deal at +250, as well.   

2. Tennessee Titans (-7.5, +100) over the Jacksonville Jaguars (888 Sport)

The Jaguars are very quietly on an eleven game losing streak after opening the season by beating the Colts. They are the rare 1-11 team that is competent against the spread, their ATS record is 6-6. Only six of their eleven losses were by more than 7.5 points. So then why is this one of the best bets of the week? The Titans have scored 80 points the past two weeks against playoff-caliber competition and now face arguably the worst defense in the AFC. The Jaguars keep resting more of their core players as their quest for the top pick continues, and the Titans are too loaded to only win this game by single digits. If you would rather take the Titans vs Jaguars at 7 points, you can get it in many different books, but it says here the half-point won’t be necessary and the +100 odds are tantalizing. 

1. Green Bay Packers (-7.5, -107) over the Detroit Lions (888 Sport)

The Packers have the best offense in the NFL, averaging 31.6 points per game. That’s right, they score more points than the Chiefs. What about the defense they will be facing? The Lions allow 29.8 points per game. How bad is that? Only 17 teams in history have allowed 30 points per game and the Lions are threatening to join that club. 

If you want to ponder how a Packers vs Lions matchup might look, well these teams played in Week 2 and the Packers won 42-21. The Lions were reportedly rejuvenated by the firing of head coach Matt Patricia, but they struggled for 55 minutes against the Bears until Mitch Trubisky imploded. -107 is a great number for the Packers here, that’s why this is the best bet of the week.