The NFL playoffs are here. Wild Card weekend brings tantalizing matchups in both the AFC and NFC sides of the bracket. In addition to traditional wagers like the spread and over-under totals, prop bets can be even more fun when there’s only one game on in a certain television time slot. And that’s the case for all six games this extended weekend. It starts Saturday afternoon and goes all the way until Monday night. Here’s our look at three key prop bets for the NFL playoffs’ Wild Card weekend.
Bet on Pacheco in Cold Kansas City
The NFL playoffs have brought us some doozies when it comes to weather over the years. There’s the famous Ice Bowl. Tom Coughlin’s frozen face during the 2007 NFC Championship game in Green Bay. A 7-degree showdown a couple of years ago between New England and Buffalo.
Making things more difficult for the visiting team is the fact that they will be traveling from South Florida. Prior to this week, the coldest game the Dolphins have played this year has been 49 degrees at the New York Jets on the day after Thanksgiving.
While the Dolphins can’t be counted out, expect the Chiefs’ most consistent player this year — Isaiah Pacheco — to do some work in what traditionally happens in these frigid games: lots of rushing attempts.
While Pacheco had just 66 rushing yards against Miami earlier this year in Frankfurt, Germany, the running back finished the season with two 100-yard efforts in his last three games.
In addition, the Dolphins’ front seven comes into this game shorthanded thanks to injuries sustained by linebackers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Against Buffalo last week, the Bills used a three-pronged attack among Josh Allen, James Cook, and Leonard Fournette to gain 127 yards on the ground against the Dolphins.Pacheco will not miss seeing Chubb lining up against him.
The Chiefs’ bottom line here is also to just win. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes both know that the wide receiver corps is shaky. Thus, the offensive game plan should feature players who can be counted on. Pacheco is on that list, and this total also accounts for check-down passes he can take in. With a total set at 88.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120, FanDuel), we think Pacheco will get enough reps and break enough tackles to get the surpass the number here.
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Allen to Use His Legs in Miserable Buffalo Weather
Speaking of weather, we’d be remiss to mention what the Bills are cooking up Sunday. It’s Buffalo in January. What could go wrong?
If the Chiefs will favor the ground game, a team like the Bills certainly will if winds that are forecasted to be around 40 mph come to fruition. As it is, Buffalo has favored the run more since offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired midseason.
Enter Josh Allen, who can certainly run the ball. In the seven games since Joe Brady took over for Dorsey, the quarterback has eight rushing touchdowns.
The Steelers come into this game without Defensive Player of the Year contender T.J. Watt. They will be challenged to stop a Bills attack that will also feature James Cook and “Playoff Lenny,” Leonard Fournette. We expect Allen to run his way into the end zone. You can move this one into plus odds by pairing it with a Bills straight-up win (Josh Allen rushing TD + Bills win, +120 at BetMGM).
Even in this, their best season in 30 years, the Detroit Lions have had their fair share of angst.
Just two weeks ago, there was the two-point conversion that wasn’t that cost the Lions the 2-seed in Dallas.
Now, with Ford Field set to host the first playoff game in the building’s history after 21 years of being dark come mid-January, the Lions will still have to face one of its own to advance.
Matthew Stafford, who was hugely popular on mostly losing Lions teams, went to Los Angeles and won a Super Bowl. While Jared Goff has been serviceable for Detroit, Stafford is still the man thanks to the Lombardi he lifted a couple of years ago.
Will Stafford and the Rams now break the hearts of the fans who loved him for well over a decade?
That remains to be seen, but we’re confident that Stafford will have a big enough day to take the over at 276.5 passing yards (-110, DraftKings).
From Week 12 to 17, Stafford ranked in the top-three in passing yards per game (284.2). He has Cooper Kupp and Rookie of the Year contender Puca Naqua at his disposal. Running back Kyren Williams has emerged as a threat as well.
As for the Lions defensively, they are the sixth-worst team in the NFL this year against the pass by allowing 247 yards per contest. It’s been worse over the past few games.
WEEK
QUARTERBACK (TEAM)
PASSING YARDS VS. LIONS
16
Nick Mullens (MIN)
411
17
Dak Prescott (DAL)
345
18
Nick Mullens (MIN)
396
Prior to that stretch, Jordan Love and Justin Herbert had big games against the Lions in November. This is a combination — plus weather not being a factor indoors — for potential huge games from both QBs.
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