NFL 2022 AFC North Schedule Analysis and Wins Prediction

The AFC North is one of the more intriguing divisions in football heading into the 2022 season. It contains the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals, who line up in good shape to repeat as division champs. Baltimore struggled down the stretch last year, but they could be poised for a bounce-back year due to health and by losing so many close games last year. 

Pittsburgh is without Ben Roethlisberger, but Kenny Pickett was drafted as the replacement and brings plenty of excitement, and Cleveland is a total wild card with the status of quarterback Deshaun Watson in total flux.

Now with the schedules out, we’re taking a look at all four teams’ chances when it comes to going over or under their win totals set by the oddsmakers. We’ll start with the team that nearly won Super Bowl 55. 

Cincinnati Bengals

Over/Under Win Total: 10

If the Bengals are to equal or eclipse their 2021 win total, they will need to get off to a good start, as they have the second most-difficult schedule in the NFL this season–partially due to a tough AFC North and also because they finished in first place last year. 

The schedule starts with four of their first six on the road, but only two of their first nine games are against playoff teams from a year ago. After a Week 10 bye, however, the six of the remaining eight games are against 2021 playoff teams. 

Cincy did dominate Pittsburgh and Baltimore last year, and while they were 0-2 against the Browns, the Week 18 matchup came with the Bengals playing backups. Road games at Dallas and the New York Jets in Weeks 2 and 3 could tell the tale of this team early, as a 1-2 start would be bad news. And the Bengals did lose to the Jets in the Meadowlands last year. 

The Bengals will have to be no worse than 6-3 going into that difficult eight-game stretch that includes games at Pittsburgh, at Tennessee, at New England, and home vs. Buffalo and Kansas City. It looks to us like 10 wins is right on the money, so watch for a line change here by a half of a game in one direction or another. 

Prediction: Push (10 wins)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Over/Under Win Total: 7.5

The Steelers ended up 9-7-1 last year and had a miraculous number of events take place in Week 18 to reach the playoffs, including winning 16-13 in overtime at Baltimore in Roethlisberger’s last game against his biggest rival, then two-win Jacksonville beat Indianapolis, and the Raiders topped the Chargers on the final play in overtime where a tie would’ve sent both of those teams to the playoffs instead of the Steelers. 

Now, Pittsburgh will have a new quarterback–whether it’s Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, or Mason Rudolph for 2022 remains to be seen–and in such a difficult division, it will be hard for the Steelers to keep pace this year, and their wins total reduction of 1.5 reflects that.

Looking at the schedule itself, the first eight games will not be easy for a new quarterback in black and gold. Road games at Cincinnati and Cleveland buffer a home game with the Patriots, and after a home game against the Jets, it’s a stretch of three of four on the road against Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Miami, and Philadelphia. 

The schedule softens up a little after that, but Pittsburgh will likely only be favored a maximum of four times in their last nine games. Mike Tomlin’s team will always compete, but it will be an uphill battle this year.

Prediction: Under 7.5 Wins

Cleveland Browns

Over/Under Win Total: N/A

Most sportsbooks don’t have a total on the board yet for the Cleveland Browns due to the Deshaun Watson situation. While he has not been criminally charged, the NFL has investigated allegations of sexual misconduct by Watson against two dozen massage therapists during his time with the Texans. 

The NFL is expected to hand down its punishment on Watson sometime before training camp begins in July, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rappaport. Most NFL insiders peg that the suspension will be anywhere from four to 10 games, which would make a huge difference in the Browns’ chances since it’s expected that they will deal Baker Mayfield and not have him available to play in those games. 

A four-game suspension will not be bad for the Browns, as they take on Carolina, the Jets, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta in those four contests. A 10-game ban, however, would include games with the Chargers, Patriots, Ravens, Bengals, Miami, and Buffalo–a very real chance to go 0-6 in that span. 

The schedule eases a bit toward the end with games against Houston, New Orleans, Washington, and Pittsburgh, so the Browns’ fate likely lies on the length of the Watson suspension.

Prediction, Assuming 4-game Watson ban: 10 wins

Prediction, Assuming 10-game Watson ban: 6 wins

Baltimore Ravens

Over/Under Win Total: 9.5

The Ravens fought an uphill battle in 2021 right from training camp, as they lost running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards along with cornerback Marcus Peters all before the season started. Baltimore was still able to start 5-1 (thanks in part to kicker Justin Tucker’s leg, who kicked an NFL record 66-yard field goal win at Detroit when the ball struck the crossbar and bounced over to win the game). 

After sitting at 8-3, the luck started to turn sour for Baltimore, as outside of a 41-21 loss at Cincinnati, the Ravens lost five games by a total of eight points to finish the season at 8-9. 

Health and luck dictate that Baltimore should be better in 2022, and their projected win total of 9.5 reflects that. Starting the season against the Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots gives the potential for a 3-0 start, and winnable road games at the Giants, Saints, and Jaguars follow. A Week 18 game at the Bengals could be for the division title. 

Prediction: Over 9.5 wins