NFL 2022 AFC East Schedule Analysis and Wins Prediction

With the NFL schedule out, free agency concluded, and the NFL Draft in the past, there’s only mini-camps standing between now and football season. 

With all of the information at our disposal, it’s time to take a look at each division and see if there’s any value to be had in win total bets prior to the 2022 season getting underway.

We begin our tour with the AFC East, where Buffalo is a Super Bowl favorite but playing in a division where the other three teams have reasons to think they will improve from 2021.

Buffalo Bills

Over/Under Win Total: 11.5

The Bills went 11-6 last year and outside of a Monday Night Football loss to New England in brutal wind conditions, dominated the rest of the AFC East, going 5-1 during the regular season and then winning a third meeting against the Patriots in the playoffs—a 47-17 rout in Buffalo that saw the Bills score a touchdown on every one of their offensive possessions. 

The Bills are the preseason Super Bowl favorites, but there was some concerning play in a 2-4 stretch a year ago when they lost to Jacksonville and weren’t competitive in a blowout loss at home to Indianapolis. 

The key will be a strong start, as the Bills face teams that all had at least eight wins in their first seven contests of the season. It starts with playing the NFL season opener on a Thursday night at the Super Bowl champion Rams. A home game against Tennessee and a road contest at Miami are winnable, but then it’s a game at Baltimore, at home vs. Pittsburgh (the Steelers beat the Bills in Buffalo last year), at Kansas City, the bye week, and then home to face Green Bay. 

If Buffalo makes it through that stretch at 4-3, they’re still in good shape because the schedule then lightens up and the Bills could easily win eight in a row (at NYJ, vs MIN, vs CLE, at DET, at NE, vs NYJ, vs MIA, at CHI), pushing past the 11-win number. 

PREDICTION: Over 11.5 wins

New England Patriots

Over/Under Win Total: 8.5

New England surprised for much of last year with rookie quarterback Mac Jones, but after going into a Week 14 bye at 9-4 and on a seven-game winning streak, the Pats lost three of their final four regular-season games before being blown out by the Bills in the playoffs. 

While Jones had some great performances, much of that winning streak was built by the defense, who allowed more than 13 points just once in that seven-game span. Bill Belichick’s teams always have strong defenses, so it won’t be a fluke to see them do the same this year. 

New England opens on the road for three of its first four games, including a game at Miami, a place that hasn’t been kind to the Pats even in the Tom Brady years. Matchups with Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Green Bay follow, then an easier stretch vs. Detroit, at Cleveland, vs. Chicago, and at the Jets. 

A more difficult schedule has the oddsmakers thinking the Pats will regress from their 10-7 season a year ago, but New England going 9-8 under a quarterback with another year of experience isn’t an outlandish thing to consider.

PREDICTION: Over 8.5 wins

Miami Dolphins

Over/Under Win Total: 8.5

After a 1-7 start, Miami rallied to win their next seven and finish the season at 9-8. Despite the comeback, head coach Brian Flores was still fired and was replaced by Mike McDaniel, who coached the 49ers’ offense and also gets to pair up Tua Tagovailoa with Tyreek Hill. 

They will be tested in their first four games, as Miami hosts New England and Buffalo within the first three weeks, and the first two road games are at Baltimore and Cincinnati. A rough stretch awaits in December as well with games at San Francisco, the LA Chargers, Buffalo, and New England—with a home game against Green Bay sandwiched in there. 

Looking at the first part of the schedule, 6-5 is a realistic spot before that tough stretch. Problem is, before a final game at home against the Jets, Miami would have to win two of five in those games we listed in the last paragraph. We don’t see that happening.

PREDICTION: Under 8.5 wins

New York Jets

Over/Under Win Total: 5.5

The Jets’ win total of 5.5 is the third-worst in the league but actually an improvement over last year’s prediction of four wins. And that’s just where the Jets finished up: 4-13. While the number hasn’t moved above 5.5, there are plenty of bets on the Jets at that number. PointsBet reports over 80% of the action on over 5.5 for the Jets, and Caesar’s says that have more over bets on the Jets than any other team.

Why is that? New York had four of the first 36 picks in this year’s draft, and they did well to address issues on both sides of the ball. Cornerback Sauce Gardner, wide receiver Garrett Wilson, and running back Breece Hall are all expected to complement second-year quarterback Zach Wilson and head coach Robert Saleh. 

Going through a schedule where the other three teams are expected to be better (and significantly better, in Buffalo’s case), the key to this exercise is finding the six wins that the Jets can get.

The Jets get all four AFC North teams inn the first four weeks, but Cleveland will likely be without Deshaun Watson, and the Jets beat Cincinnati at home last year. Miami comes to MetLife Stadium in Week 5, so let’s assume 3-2 at that point even if they lose their next four (at GB, at DEN, vs NE, vs BUF) going into the bye, there are eight more chances for three wins. With home games against Chicago, Detroit, and Jacksonville, the possibility is there to sweep those, plus a road game in Seattle in Week 17 to face a Seahawks team that could be one of the worst in the league. A 6-11 record this year sounds about right for the Jets, but a decent start will be key.

PREDICTION: Over 5.5