Can Joe Burrow Win The MVP Award?

With four games remaining in the 2022 NFL regular season, the postseason awards races are shaping up. 

A crowded MVP race is now down to three favorites and two somewhat long shots. We’re also going to take a look at two other popular awards: Comeback Player of the Year and Coach of the Year. 

NFL MVP

Dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts has the Philadelphia Eagles in great position for the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. He’s emerged as the favorite for the award. Here are the top-five contenders at DraftKings.

It’s Hurts’ award to lose. He’s 10^th in passing yards but protects the ball with 22 touchdowns against just three interceptions. He’s also run for 10 more touchdowns (four off the league lead in rushing) with a total of 686 yards, second to Justin Fields among quarterbacks. If the Eagles beat Dallas on Christmas Eve, Philly will coast to the top seed and the award is likely his.

 While Buffalo is technically ahead of Kansas City in the AFC standings via tiebreaker, the Chiefs’ schedule lines up better and may actually end up with the No. 1 seed. If that happens, Mahomes could get some votes based on the fact that he’s thrown for 400 more yards than any other QB and also has six more TDs (33) than his nearest challenger. What stands out in the wrong way, however, is 11 interceptions, which is tied for the third-worst total in the league. 

The other one to watch out for is Joe Burrow. Even without top wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow has gotten the defending AFC champions back into the thick of things, sitting in a tie with Baltimore at 9-4 in the AFC North. That includes a head-to-head win over Mahomes’ Chiefs, and if KC stumbles and the Bengals win at home in Week 17 over Buffalo, the Bengals could get the top seed in the AFC, and if Burrow leads his team to some clutch wins down the stretch, some voters could fall victim to recency bias and vote for Burrow.

Prediction: Hurts, but Burrow worth a flier at +800

NFL Comeback Player of the Year

Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is a massive -600 favorite here, but beware of another quarterback who has risen from the ashes. 

Smith is having a year no one expected after being relegated to a backup for much of the past six years of his career. His 25:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio is excellent, and his 3,433 passing yards rank sixth in the NFL.

But after getting off to a 6-3 start, the Seahawks are now 7-6 and a half-game behind the final playoff spot in the NFC. The next three games are as follows: vs. San Francisco, at Kansas City, vs. New York Jets. The final game is at home against the Rams, which will be an easier test.

So if the Seahawks miss the playoffs, the award still very well may go to Smith because of the low expectations Seattle had going into the season after losing Russell Wilson.

The next three closest contenders are: Christian McCaffrey (+750), Saquon Barkley (+1200), and Jared Goff (+2000).

McCaffrey is playing well for the 49ers but isn’t the main piece of their offense. Barkley was the early-season favorite and has amassed 1,083 yards, but he’s cooled off in recent weeks—as have his Giants. 

The one to watch out for is Goff. His numbers are similar to Smith’s (3,352 yards, 22 TDs, 7 INT). Detroit has won five of its last six games to improve to 6-7 after a 1-6 start, and they could be favored in three of their last four games. If Goff keeps it up and the Lions sneak into the playoffs, we like the value in this pick.

Prediction: Jared Goff

NFL Coach of the Year

As the year has gone on, Nick Sirianni has emerged as the favorite at -400. Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll were early-season favorites, but Daboll has dropped off as a serious contender, and Saleh is at +1400 with the Jets slightly less than a 50-50 shot to make the playoffs. Detroit coach Dan Campbell is at +1200 and could get some support if the Lions reach the playoffs, and Mike McDaniel (+2000) looks like he will be leading Miami to the postseason in his first year with the team.

But it will be nearly impossible to top Sirianni, as he has the combination of leading the team with the best record in the NFL, with +450 Super Bowl futures odds, and defying expectations in the process. Philadelphia was 9-8 last year, and only marginal improvement was expected with a preseason over-under win total set at 9.5. 

Prediction: Nick Sirianni