MLB Best Bets: Thursday, June 23

After sweeping a short two-game series from the New York Mets, the Houston Astros take their second-best record in the American League and head to New York to take on the city’s other team: the 51-18 New York Yankees.

This matchup highlights a Thursday night schedule and should be a solid four-game series that caps off a stretch for the Yankees where they played nine games against AL East rivals Tampa Bay and Toronto Blue Jays, winning seven of them.

In other important matchups today, the surging Guardians are closing in on the Twins in the AL Central after winning the first two of a series in Minnesota, and Atlanta is riding high off a comeback win last night against San Francisco, a team it’s now tied in the loss column with for the final playoff spot in the National League.

It’s a busy baseball day for a Thursday in June, so let’s get into it with our MLB Best Bets for today!

Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees

The Bet: New York -125 (Caesar’s Sportsbook)

Two teams that could be on a collision course for the American League Championship Series come October meet for the first time this year to start a four-game series in the Bronx. The Yankees are wonderful at home, going 29-7 at Yankee Stadium and having won 14-straight here. Houston, meanwhile, is 23-14 on the road and is coming off two wins at home against the Mets, who have the NL’s best record.

Framber Valdez faces Jameson Taillon in a matchup of two of the club’s better pitchers. Valdez, 7-3 with a 2.78 ERA, allowed three runs in six innings against the White Sox last weekend, but the Astros pounded out 13 runs to give him a comfortable win. He’s allowed slightly over his season average in runs over the past five games, but he does have a complete game, one-run effort against Oakland in that stretch. Valdez will need to be on-point, however, to keep the Yankees in check.

Taillon has similar numbers, going 8-1 with a 2.70 ERA this year. A major difference, however, between Taillon and Valdez is in the walks department. The Houston starter has allowed 28 free passes on the season to just six by Taillon. In Taillon’s last start, he held Toronto to no runs and four hits over six innings.

The pitching matchup can be considered anywhere from even to shading in the Yankees’ favor slightly, and given that the game is being played in New York, where the Yankees have been dominant, we have to lean towards the Bronx Bombers with decent value at -125.

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves

The Bet: Atlanta -152 (Wynn Bet)

The Braves and Giants finish up a four-game series this afternoon in Atlanta with the Braves looking to take three of four after a comeback victory last night that could have damaged the psyche of San Francisco.

Leading 3-1 going into the ninth inning, Jake McGee tossed the game away by allowing a home run to Dansby Swanson, a game-tying single by William Conteras, and a game-winning hit by Adam Duvall. Playing just hours after that win, Atlanta also has the edge in the pitching matchup.

Kyle Wright goes for the Braves, who is 7-4 with a 2.94 ERA and has been slightly better than those numbers at home this year. He was touched up at Wrigley Field last week by allowing five runs in six innings to the Cubs, but he had quality starts in his four outings prior to that.

Former Brave Alex Wood (5-5, 4.32 ERA) goes for the Giants, and he’s struggled to find consistency this year. Wood allowed four runs in 5.1 innings last weekend at Pittsburgh and has given up at least three runs in four of his last five starts on the road.

Atlanta has won nine of its last 10 at home and 17 of 20 overall, and we see those trends continuing today.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds

The Bet: Los Angeles -1.5, -133 (Bet Rivers)

The Dodgers came to Cincinnati not playing their best baseball over the past several weeks, but they seem to have gotten better against a Reds team that’s struggling in the pitching department once again like they did early in the season.

LA has won the first two games of this series comfortably (8-2 and 8-4) and sends Clayton Kershaw to the mound today to go for the sweep. Kershaw hasn’t won since coming off the injured list, but that was more due to a lack of run support, as he allowed just three runs in nine combined innings pitched against San Francisco and Cleveland. On the year, he’s 3-1 with a 1.17 ERA.

Hunter Greene pitches for Cincinnati, who is 3-7 with a 5.26 ERA. His 85 strikeouts on the season is in the top-20 in MLB, but when opponents hit the ball, they are tending to do some damage. He allowed four runs in five innings to Milwaukee last Friday and has given up at least four runs in three of his last five outings. He’s also given up multiple home runs in five starts this year.

The Reds have lost six in a row and 10 of their last 13. In this losing streak, they have given up at least five runs in each game. With such a lopsided pitching matchup in LA’s favor, we have to back the Dodgers on the run line.