The Complete College Football Futures Picture : Week 8

Iowa Future Odds Week 8 (Current Odds +7000, DraftKings)

With the possible exception of Cincinnati, you can make a case that every team in the AP top ten currently controls its own destiny. Meaning, if they win out they are almost certainly going to make the College Football Playoff. This week we’re taking a look at the teams just outside the top ten, starting with #11 Iowa. 

The Hawkeyes were #2 in the country until they suffered an embarrassing 24-7 home loss to Purdue. Because Iowa plays in the weaker Big Ten West, the Hawkeyes do not face another currently ranked team during the rest of the regular season. Iowa does have over Indiana and Iowa State when they were ranked, though both currently are not, in addition to a signature 23-20 win against Penn State two weeks ago. 

Iowa does have tough contests in Nebraska and Wisconsin still on their slate, but those will not really move the needle nationally. The Hawkeyes’ primary hope is for Purdue, now ranked, to play well the rest of the way, which must include a win against Michigan State or Ohio State, so Iowa’s loss looks better in retrospect. A 12-1 Iowa with wins over Penn State and the Big Ten East champion would be hard to leave out of a playoff, but the Hawkeyes need a ton of help along the way. 

Ole Miss Future Odds Week 8 (Current Odds +10000, DraftKings)

Every week is an adventure for Ole Miss, who in the past three weeks has lost to number one Alabama, won a 52-51 shootout with Arkansas, and then survived the “mustard bottle on the field game” against Tennessee.

Things will barely let up for #12 Ole Miss as this week they face an LSU team that has just fired their coach but is still letting him finish the season and the Tigers could be motivated to win one for Ed Oregeron. The Rebels have a date at Auburn next week and a game with Alabama-slayer Texas A&M still on the menu in a few weeks.

Let’s imagine a scenario where Ole Miss, led by Heisman candidate QB Matt Corral,  wins out to get to 11-1. They would need Alabama to lose again since the Crimson Tide own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Mississippi. Relying on Alabama to lose again in the regular season seems unlikely, which is why this number is still 100-1 and we didn’t even mention that they’d still need to win the SEC title game against Georgia just to get there. 

Notre Dame Future Odds Week 8 (Current Odds +9000, DraftKings)

Notre Dame seems like a forgotten team right now, languishing at #13 in the country at 5-1 after a bye last week. The Fighting Irish are in a strange predicament where normally, like last year, a one loss Notre Dame team receives strong consideration for the CFP, but because they lost to Cincinnati, which has its own playoff complications, they are firmly behind the Bearcats in the postseason pecking order. 

So, Notre Dame definitely needs Cincy to lose once, twice would arguably be even better, while the Irish would need to run their own table. Notre Dame does not play a ranked team the rest of the way, their toughest games left are hosting USC this week and their trip to Virginia in November. 

Would an 11-1 Notre Dame team with no conference title to boost them get any consideration, even if Cincy was out of the picture? They would need a whole lot of help, including Oregon to be out of the race, only one SEC team to be relevant, and for every Big Ten team but one to have 2+ losses. That seems unlikely, but that’s just their road to get to the playoff, where they have consistently struggled to win anyway. That’s why they’re still 90-1.