We’ll analyze the future odds of a trio of Big-12 teams this week, starting with the six-time defending conference champions, the Oklahoma Sooners. Oklahoma is in a weird position through five games. They entered the season as title contenders with the Heisman favorite in Spencer Rattler.
Five games in, they are undefeated, ranked sixth in the country, and Rattler is still in the top five in the Heisman race. But, there is an air of disappointment around the Sooners, who have won games by 3, 5, 6, and 7 points against unranked teams. The good news is that Oklahoma only plays two ranked teams the rest of the way. This week, they have the red River Showdown against #21 Texas and they end the regular season slate with Bedlam at Oklahoma State.
The question people are asking this week is could Oklahoma survive a loss during a season where Clemson is a non-factor and the PAC-12 appears to be down. Basically, would a 12-1 Oklahoma get priority over an undefeated BYU or Cincinnati? History says yes, but history also doesn;t have a ton of examples of teams that have started as poorly as Oklahoma has and then went 12-1.
No team in the country has a tougher next two weeks than the Texas Longhorns. This week they play Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl, next week they host the undefeated Oklahoma State Cowboys. They are +3.5 underdogs this week, if they win they would likely be -6 or so favorites against Oklahoma State.
If the Longhorns can somehow turn back the clock and win both games, the clouds part for Texas. They would not play a ranked team the rest of the way, with their toughest games coming at Baylor and at Kansas State.
Why Texas has 45-1 odds while Oklahoma State has 100-1 odds when they have similar remaining schedules, the Cowboys have defeated two ranked teams to Texas’ zero, and, by the way, the Cowboys are undefeated while Texas lost to Arkansas by 19 points, is an interesting question.
No team from the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, or PAC-12 has gone undefeated and been held out of the College Football Playoff. Well, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are 5-0 and have already defeated ranked teams in Baylor and Kansas State. After a bye this week the Cowboys will visit Texas, and they also visit Iowa State, West Virginia, and TCU later in the season. Their regular season ends with a home game against Oklahoma Thanksgiving weekend.
So, Oklahoma State needs to run the table, winning seven games, then win the Big 12 Championship Game, and then defeat two top four teams in the CFP. So, it’s not exactly likely, but it is unusual to see a 5-0 major conference team with 100-1 odds. For what it’s worth, the Cowboys have never made the conference title game, so just being #12 in the country and undefeated is practically chartered waters for the Cowboys.