The Complete NCAAB Futures Odds Picture Week 16: Buy Up on Texas Tech, Sell on Michigan State

Looking at our last column two weeks ago, it’s clear to see that labeling a team as “stock up” doesn’t just mean that they’re on a hot streak. Duke was coming off a home loss to Virginia, but we labeled them as a stock up because their futures odds were at +1400. Now, the Blue Devils have won three-straight games and are looking like the clear No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament. As a result, their odds to win the NCAA tournament are now at around +1000. Taking action two weeks ago on the Blue Devils meant a $400 difference in a payout on a $100 bet should the Dukies cut down the nets at the Final Four.

In the case of Providence, it was a case of striking while the iron was hot, as they were on a hot streak but still with nice odds — +10000 to win it all. Now, even though the Friars lost to Villanova last week, Providence’s NCAAB futures odds are now +6600. That’s still a nice pay day if the Friars win the championship, but it’s not as nice as +10000!

So, picking our teams whose stocks are up not only take their play into account, but trying to maximize their NCAA odds at the right time.

With just two weeks left in the regular season, let’s see what’s in store for this edition of the NCAAB futures odds picture for Week 16 of the men’s college basketball season.

Stock Up – Gonzaga and Texas Tech

Gonzaga Bulldogs Futures Odds

(Current Odds to win NCAA Championship: +600, Bet Online)

Gonzaga, now the unanimous No. 1 team in the country, is steamrolling through West Coast Conference competition and is likely to be unchallenged prior to the start of the NCAA tournament, where they are just about assured to be a No. 1 seed.

While the Bulldogs are down from their opening odds of +700, they can still be had for +600 at Bet Online despite odds of +450 most everywhere else. The thing is, even though the odds are low and they are actually the favorites to win March Madness now,

The Zags will be highly motivated. After falling short after reaching the championship game as an undefeated team last year, a title would complete Mark Few’s legacy of turning an otherwise mid-major program into a true national powerhouse.

Gonzaga, if you recall, tested itself frequently during the non-conference portion of the schedule, facing five ranked teams. The Bulldogs were 3-2 in those games, losing to No. 5 Duke and then-No. 16 Alabama but defeated then-No. 5 Texas, second-ranked UCLA, and then-No. 25 Texas Tech, which looks like a bigger win now (see below). In conference play, the Zags handled No. 22 St. Mary’s earlier this month.

Junior forward Drew Timme is a national player of the year contender, averaging 18 points and six rebounds on the year, and freshman Chet Holmgren is putting up 14.4 points, 9.6 rebounds per contest, and 3.4 blocks per contest.

With Gonzaga likely to keep winning over the next two weeks, their odds won’t get any more favorable, so if you like the Zags, now is the time to act.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Futures Odds

(Current Odds to win NCAA Championship: +3000, Future House)

Chris Beard led Texas Tech to the NCAA tournament’s championship game in 2019 before jumping ship to coach the Texas Longhorns during this past offseason. The Red Raiders, however, haven’t missed a beat. Not only are they 21-6 and a solid second place in the Big 12 behind Kansas, but they beat Texas and their former coach this past weekend for the second time this season under new coach Mark Adams.

Even though Texas Tech is clearly among the class of the Big 12 (they also beat defending national champion Baylor twice), they can still be bought for +3000 on the futures market. And they beat Baylor and Texas last week without Kevin McCullar, who is likely their best defender.

The Red Raiders are at No. 9 in the latest AP top 25 poll, one of three Big 12 teams in the top 10 (Kansas at No. 6, Baylor at No. 10). Texas is also ranked and in fourth in the conference. Iowa State should be in the NCAA tournament despite being eighth in the 10-team conference, and Oklahoma has a shot to make the field even though they are in next-to-last place in the league.

Playing against competitive teams night in and night out will have nothing but a positive impact come March. Remember in 2010-13 when the Big East put at least seven teams in the tournament each year (including a record 11 in 2011)? The conference won titles in three of those four years and had five Final Four teams in that span. This year’s Big 12 is similar, and Texas Tech has non-conference competition in wins over Tennessee and Mississippi State, a close loss at Providence, and a loss at Gonzaga in the early part of the season.

With powerhouse Kansas and defending tournament titleist Baylor stealing the headlines, grab Texas Tech before the Big 12 tournament starts, as a championship there will certainly lead to a drop in odds.

Stock Down – Kansas and Michigan State

Kansas Jayhawks Futures Odds

(Current Odds to win NCAA Championship: +1400, Bovada)

A few paragraphs up, I mentioned that Kansas is leading what could be the nation’s best conference from top to bottom. So why is their stock down? Read on!

The Jayhawks, 11-2 in the Big 12, are very likely to win the conference’s regular season crown. But taking a look at their non-conference record sheds some doubt on Kansas’s NCAA tournament chances.

Kansas faced exactly one ranked team outside of Big 12 play, and that was a 80-62 drubbing at the hands of Kentucky at Allen Fieldhouse. In addition, the Jayhawks were upset by Dayton at a neutral site.

The Jayhawks missed the NCAA tournament last year, and there was no tourney in 2020, but from 2010-18, Kansas was a No. 1 or 2 seed in each of those nine years, which resulted in two Final Four appearances, zero titles, and three second-round upsets. Would Kansas be able to get by Kentucky, Auburn, Gonzaga, or even Big 12 foes Baylor or Texas Tech this year? It seems unlikely, and +1400 does not provide much value.

Michigan State Spartans Futures Odds

(Current Odds to win NCAA Championship: +4500, UniBet)

This wouldn’t be the first time that Tom Izzo’s Spartans struggled a bit in February before going on a roll in March. Michigan State has reached eight Final Fours since 1999, including winning it all in 2000. But in four of the last five NCAA tournaments, Sparty has been bounced by the second round in each. That includes losses to three double-digit seeds in that span — No. 15 Middle Tennessee, No. 11 Syracuse, and No. 11 UCLA last year in the First Four.

After an 0-2 week, Michigan State is 9-6 in the Big Ten and currently in sixth place in the league. After losses at Penn State and at home against Illinois, Sparty has dropped four of its last five. And things aren’t going to get any easier — at No. 25 Iowa Tuesday night, at home vs. No. 4 Purdue on Saturday, and at No. 22 Ohio State next week.

Can Michigan State shake off this rough patch? Sure. Will they? Recent history says that they will not.