NCAAB Futures Odds Going Into Sweet 16; Can Anyone Catch UConn?

The UConn Huskies are not only looking to be the first school to repeat as NCAA men’s basketball champions in over 15 years, but they’re doing it in dominant fashion.

After cruising through the 2023 tournament by winning all six games by double digits, the Huskies have continued that streak through the first weekend.

After opening the tournament as heavy favorites, that number continues. Let’s take a look at the NCAAB futures odds for the winner of the 2024 edition of March Madness.

Here are the latest NCAAB futures odds, courtesy of DraftKings.

Perhaps no other team this century has excelled in the NCAA Tournament like UConn. The Huskies have won championships as lower seeds (2014, 2023) and as favorites (2004, 2011). This year, they are deep in the favorites column, poised to be the first repeat champs since Florida in 2006-07.

On Thursday in Boston, the Huskies will take on 5-seed San Diego State in a rematch of last year’s title game. UConn had no trouble last April, they are better this year, and the Aztecs are not as good. Plus, the Huskies are playing within driving distance of their Storrs, Connecticut campus.

If UConn advances, they will face Illinois or Iowa State in the regional final. The Cyclones have the game’s top defense, and the Cyclones are ranked No. 1 defensively. Both will provide UConn its toughest test to date this month, but the Huskies will be heavily favored. That would put them in the Final Four, and we’ll pick this argument up next week.

Houston is next in the NCAAB futures odds at +550, but what we saw late Sunday night was terrifying to Cougars backers.

The Cougars had their second-round matchup against Texas A&M well in hand — until they didn’t. Houston escaped in overtime, but this performance down the stretch won’t fly against, say, Duke, who happens to be their next opponent. A winnable regional final awaits the winner of that game (either Marquette or North Carolina State, the lone double-digit seed remaining). Duke at +2200 has far more value than Houston at +550.

The other No. 1 seeds are Purdue (+650) and North Carolina (+1100). Much like Virginia did in 2019, the Boilermakers have put last year’s upset by a 16-seed well behind them. Purdue smashed both Grambling and Utah State by a combined 67 points last weekend. Their tour of the mid-majors continues with Gonzaga next, who dominated late to beat Kansas but still isn’t the same team that they’ve had the past three seasons. The Boilermakers are cooking with Zach Edey inside and some sharpshooters around him waiting to take advantage of a double-team on the big man. Those 2019 Cavaliers won it all, and we would put Purdue at No. 2 currently in this year’s power rankings.

The Tar Heels have plenty of players remaining who were on the brink of a championship two years ago before blowing a 16-point halftime lead to Kansas. But Arizona is arguably the strongest 2-seed left, and the Tar Heels would have to face UConn in the Final Four.

When we’ve had relative chalk so far (all eight 1- and 2-seeds advanced for only the sixth time since the tournament went to 64+ teams nearly 40 years ago), so a lower seed will have to pull off at least one upset to just make the Final Four, let alone win the national championship.

We mentioned Duke in the South region, who could be the likeliest champion out of that corner of the bracket. Marquette is in there, but they didn’t come close to touching UConn on three occasions this year. One team that does own a win over the Huskies is Creighton, and the Jays are battle-tested after topping pesky Pac-12 champion Oregon in double overtime Saturday.

Alabama, a 4-seed facing North Carolina, proved they could win despite an off shooting night. But a 72-61 win over Grand Canyon isn’t the same as playing the Tar Heels if the shots aren’t falling. The Tide have too many difficult opponents to endure a poor offensive performance.

We would take a chance on some of these teams to reach the Final Four, but not to cut down the nets in Phoenix. If you’re not going to take UConn, look toward Purdue, followed by better value with North Carolina and Duke.