NCAA Tournament: Miami vs Drake Odds & Prediction

The 5-12 matchup is always a fan favorite, with everyone trying to predict which 12 seed will upset a 5 seed. The reason it’s so popular is that it’s pretty common. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, a 12 seed has beaten a 5 seed in 33 of 37 years. In fact, it happened twice last year, with Richmond and New Mexico State both advancing to the second round as a 12 seed. With Drake looking to be the 12 seed upset in 2023, this game is sure to be a close one. 

Miami’s main identity is to score efficiently, and they have the 25th highest scoring offense in the country, averaging 79.4 points a game on 48.6% shooting, which is 14th in the country. They also have the seventh highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation. The Hurricanes, who are +7500 (FanDuel) to win it all, are a young but experienced squad, with most of their returning players having contributed to last year’s Elite Eight run. 

They are also deep when it comes to scoring, with four players averaging over 13.2 points. Fourth-year junior Isaiah Wong leads the Hurricanes in scoring with 16.2 points and 3.4 assists per game. However, Miami has struggled on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 72.1 points per game, which ranks 247th in the nation. If they want to go on  a deep tournament run, or even get out of the first round, they need to find a way to tighten up their defense.

For a 12 seed, Drake is an exceptionally well-balanced and strong team, ranking in the top 100 in both points scored and points allowed, as well as offensive and defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs are experienced and have played together for years now, with returning players accounting for 67.2% of minutes played and 70.8% of scoring this year. They are led by Tucker DeVries, a 6’7″ sophomore who is averaging 19.0 points and 5.6 rebounds while shooting an impressive 39% from three-point range. With Drake’s second-best defensive rebounding percentage (80.2%) and Miami’s big man Norchad Omier sidelined with an ankle injury, the Bulldogs should control the glass and make it difficult for Miami to gain second-chance points while also scoring some baskets themselves.

Miami is a strong, high scoring team, but with their injuries and Drake’s statistical advantages we expect Drake to cover the +1.5 point spread and win the game.

Score Prediction: Drake 73-71