2022 NCAA Tournament Predictions

The NCAA announced the lineup for the 2022 men’s basketball tournament on Selection Sunday March 14, with a few surprises along the way.

The Big 10, generally regarded as the deepest conference in college basketball this season, was rewarded for that perception as all three of its bubble teams – Michigan, Indiana, and Rutgers – all received at-large bids. 

That left a few potentially deserving teams out of the field, including Dayton, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Xavier, SMU, and Wake Forest.

Tournament games kick off on March 15-16 with the First Four matchups. Rutgers plays Notre Dame in a matchup of 11 seeds in the West, with the winner facing No. 6 seed Alabama. Texas Southern plays Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in a matchup of 16 seeds from the Midwest, with the winner playing No. 1 Kansas. Wright State plays Bryant in a matchup of 16 seeds in the South, with the winner facing No. 1 Arizona. Wyoming plays Indiana in a matchup of 12 seeds in the East, with the winner moving on to face No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s.

The first and second rounds are March 17-20, Sweet Sixteen is March 24-25, Elite Eight is March 26-27, Final Four is April 2, and the championship game will be played on April 4 in New Orleans. Tournament games are aired on CBS, TBS, TNT, and TruTV.

Gonzaga received the No. 1 overall seed, with Baylor, Kansas, and Arizona receiving the others. Here is a look at each region, and a prediction for who will come advance out of it to the Final Four.

West: This region has arguably the most star power and storylines, with No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga trying to finally capture a national title. Gonzaga was undefeated last season – until their very last game, when they lost to Baylor in the championship. This year’s team isn’t as dominant as last year’s, but they’re balanced and have what looks to be a relatively easy path to the Elite Eight, at least.

They’re potentially overshadowed in their own bracket, though. The other side features No. 2 seed Duke. The Blue Devils might be a sentimental favorite as coach Mike Krzyzewski is participating in his final NCAA Tournament. 

The Blue Devils could potentially have an intriguing matchup in round two if Michigan State advances – Coach K and legendary MSU coach Tom Izzo have met 14 times, with Coach K winning 11 of those. But MSU has won two of the last three games, including one in the Elite Eight in 2019. 

PREDICTION: Duke will pull off a mild upset and come out of the West.

East: The defending national champions, Baylor, wrapped up a No. 1 seed and look to defend their title in the East region. They’ll have some tough competition, though. Another Final Four team from a season ago, UCLA, is lingering in the region, and perennial powers Kentucky and North Carolina are also potential formidable challenges.

One team to watch is Purdue, though. The Boilermakers had a great record in the Big 10 and advanced to the championship game in the Big 10 tournament before losing to Iowa. They’re also one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NCAA. They led the Big 10 in scoring, field goal percentage, and three-point percentage. They also have great size and guards who can get to the basket and finish. 

PREDICTION: Baylor doesn’t have quite as much talent as last season. Purdue might be the most complete team in this region and should grab the Final Four spot.

South: Arizona grabbed the No. 1 seed in the South, and the only real knock on the Wildcats this year has been their strength of schedule. But the team did win four of its five games against USC and UCLA, its biggest Pac 12 rivals, and closed the season impressively by winning the conference tournament. 

Arizona also recovered nicely from an upset loss to Colorado in February by rolling off six consecutive wins to close the season.

No. 2 seed Villanova will be a tough test. ‘Nova is coming off of a conference championship tournament victory as well, and coach Jay Wright is one of the best tournament coaches in the country. 

PREDICTION: It’s hard to pick against Villanova based on their recent history, but Arizona is a complete team and should advance to the Final Four here.

Midwest: The Midwest has the appearance of a pretty wide-open region. Kansas grabbed the No. 1 seed, but No. 2 seed Auburn enters the tournament with some questions. 

The Tigers are led by NBA prospect Jabari Smith, a sure top-three pick in the draft. But depth is an issue for them, and the team enters March Madness with a .500 record in its last eight games.

The region also features two Big 10 teams, Iowa and Wisconsin, that both performed well in a slugfest of a season in the conference. Iowa just won the Big 10 conference tournament, and Wisconsin has one of the best players in the country in Johnny Davis. 

PREDICTION: Wisconsin’s shooting and defense make them built to thrive in tournament-style play. The Badgers will be a mild surprise and represent this region in the Final Four.