Preview: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors

Every time the Lakers and Warriors meet this season, their teams look a bit different. The odds of who’s going to win ping pong back and forth depending on who’s going to be on the floor. They faced off in the first game of the season in Golden State, back when Russell Westbrook was starting for the Lakers and Jordan Poole was still on the Warriors bench. The Warriors won handily 123 – 109. Their second matchup, also in Golden State, was a 109 – 103 victory for the Lakers with Steph Curry and LeBron James on the bench. Curry will also be on the bench Thursday night in Los Angeles, and the Lakers will play just their second game with LeBron, Anthony Davis, and D’Angelo Russell on the floor to start.

Here are our favorite bets in this matchup:

It’s now or never for the Lakers. While they’re only 3.5 games behind the Mavericks, the current 6th seed in the West, they’ll need to jump ahead of six other teams before they reach Dallas. Interestingly enough, while they’re currently the 13th seed in the West, their championship odds are +4000. That’s the 11th shortest odds in the whole league. Everyone expects the Lakers to finish a lot higher than the cellar they’re in right now. We’re going to see playoff LeBron a bit early this year. He’s generally saved his best for the postseason in the second half of his career, and the postseason for the Lakers starts now. 

Between their need to get off on the right foot after the All star break, the addition of D’Angelo Russell, Steph Curry still being sidelined, and the game itself being in LA, the Lakers, whose current futures odds are +5500 to win the NBA Finals, should get this win and they should cover. The Warriors are 7-22 on the road this season, and only have two road wins without Steph in the lineup. Golden State now has the sixth best odds to win the Western conference, trailing Denver with +900 odds.

Despite the under hitting last Sunday when these two teams played in Golden State, it’s the over that’s trending. The over has hit in six of the Warriors’ last seven games, 17 of the Warriors’ last 19 games, and five of the last six Warriors vs. Lakers games. Those are pretty significant streaks. These teams are constantly out scoring their expectations. 

There are a couple reasons why these teams could be hitting the over so often. Bettors may expect the Warriors to score less with Steph on the sidelines, but the Warriors are 2nd in the league in scoring, and without Steph their season average only comes down half of a point. Bettors may also perceive the Lakers as a low scoring team because of their disastrous three points shooting. In reality though, they’re 7th in the league in points per game with over 117 a night.

LeBron James is currently averaging 30 points per game at age 38. That is unheard of. However, while he may need to become playoff LeBron on the home stretch of the regular season, that doesn’t mean he has to do all the scoring.

Right before the All Star break, LeBron became the NBA’s all time leading scorer. that weight is now off of his back. He can focus now on taking his team to the playoffs, and maybe focus less on getting his points in every night. To make that even easier for him, D’Angelo Russell is a legitimate scorer and facilitator as well. While the pressure of making the playoffs is great, the pressure of scoring 40 should have evaporated with Russell and a healthy (for now) Anthony Davis.