NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Wednesday, May 11

Yesterday we told you both home teams were going to win and cover, and they both did. Can we go two for two again tonight? Wednesday’s games are more complicated with Milwaukee facing an atypically large spread and the Grizzlies playing at home without Ja Morant. Here are our picks for what should be a thrilling night of playoff basketball.

Bucks @ Celtics

The Bet: Bucks +5.5 (-105, Bet MGM)

The last ten times the Bucks and Celtics have played, each team has won five times apiece. But, the Celtics have covered in nine of those ten games.

Milwaukee covered in their Game 1 win, a 101-89 victory as a +5 road underdog. Since then, the Bucks have lost Games 2 and 4 outright and failed to cover the -2.5 line in their 103-101 win in Game 3.

The Bucks are now +5.5 road underdogs in Game 5 after being +4 and +5 underdogs in their first two games in Boston this series.

Milwaukee has been a +5.5 or larger underdog three other times this season. Twice, they were a large underdog in Cleveland and lost, though both times they were missing most of their starters, including Giannis Antetokounmpo. The other time was a November game in Boston where they were missing Giannis and Khris Middleton.

In that game, they were a +5.5 underdog and lost by 9. This time, however, they have Giannis, so you are getting the best price of the year for the Bucks with their best player. We’re backing the Bucks here.

Warriors @ Grizzlies

The Bet: Warriors -4 (-110, DraftKings)

The Memphis Grizzlies were 20-2 in their first 22 games this season without Ja Morant before losing their final three regular season games without Ja, though they had nothing to play for as they were locked in second seed.

Playing without Morant in Game 4, the Grizzlies led the Warriors by seven points entering the fourth quarter before Golden State mounted a comeback and ultimately won 101-98.

Both teams could not buy a basket in Game 4, missing a combined 54 three pointers (shooting a combined 18 for 72 from deep) but it’s less likely that stat continues for the Warriors on Wednesday.

We’re saying Golden State closes out the Grizzlies in Memphis on Wednesday night.