NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Tuesday, May 10

The number one seed was cruising towards the conference finals before they stumbled by losing both games on the road. Now, they are in must-win mode in Game 5 to avoid playing an elimination game on the road on Thursday night. Are we talking about the Phoenix Suns or the Miami Heat? Yes. Both teams are in nearly identical scenarios. Will both teams hold serve tonight or are we looking at a potentially massive upset? Here are our NBA picks for Tuesday night.

76ers @ Heat

The Bet: Heat -3.5 (-105, Points Bet)

The home team has won every game so far between the Miami Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers. In Game 4, James Harden had 31 points and 9 assists while Joel Embiid had 24 points and 11 rebounds for the Sixers. Jimmy Butler led Miami with 40 points in the loss.

The four games so far in this series have been decided by a total of 58 points, or 14.5 per game, with the smallest margin being 8 points.

The last time this series was in Miami, the Heat were 7.5 and 8 point favorites but this line is way down at 3.5.

The 76ers have lost seven of their last eight games in Miami and Philadelphia has only covered two of their last ten road games overall.

So, Miami easily covers twice at home and then the line is 4+ points lower a few days later? This is one of the more bizarre NBA lines we’ve seen all year, so we’re hammering the Heat tonight.

Dallas @ Phoenix

The Bet: Suns -6 (-110, DraftKings)

The Phoenix Suns had defeated the Dallas Mavericks eleven straight times and appeared to be cruising towards the Western conference finals when they went to Dallas and came up empty handed, losing both games, neither of which came down to the wire.

Luka Doncic struggled in Game 4, shooting 9 of 25 including 1 of 10 from three, but he is still averaging over 31 points, almost 10 rebounds, and over 7 assists per game in the playoffs. Dallas has been looking for a second star behind Luka and it was Dorian Finney-Smith who added 24 points and 8 rebounds in the Game 4 win.

The Suns are -6 home favorites, the same number from games 1 and 2, which they covered. Has Phoenix, which is now 36-10 at home this year and 63-16 outright as a favorite, all of a sudden gotten much worse? Dallas took care of business at home and probably has the best player on the floor, but Phoenix has the next four or five best players. We’re taking the Suns, though we expect the series to go to seven games.