NBA Finals: Game 4 Best Bets

We swept all four bets on Mount Propmore in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday as the Celtics took a 2-1 series lead over the Warriors at home. Still in Boston, they’re favorites tonight to extend their lead and move one game away from lifting a league-record 18th title banner.

Steph Curry appeared to injure (or re-injure) his foot in the second half of Wednesday’s game. He said he won’t let it slow him down in Game 4, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll be totally 100 percent. As such, we’re focusing a few of today’s top bets on the Warriors’ star guard. He’s been sensational, but perhaps that hurt foot cools his hot hand.

1. Steph Curry Under 5.5 Rebounds (-148)

Through three games in the Finals, Curry has gone over this title just one (and it was only by a half rebound). Across the entire playoffs, he’s notched at least six boards in five games, while he’s logged five or fewer in 14 contests.

So you have a guy who doesn’t tend to rebound the ball at this kind of volume, and he’s nursing a banged up foot. If Steph Curry is going to play roughly 36 effective minutes in Game 4, which is what they’ll need to compete against Boston, does it make sense for him to be crashing the boards against this physical Celts team? Or should he stalk the three-point line and try to contribute by doing what he does best?

We think it’s the latter all day long and will make this bet worth laying some juice.

2. Jaylen Brown Over 28.5 Points + Assists (-118)

There’s reason to think this game will see a lot of Boston assists, again because of Curry potentially slowing down due to his foot injury. We’ve already seen him get attacked on the defensive end with the Celtics seeking out size mismatches, and whether the Warriors switch or not, the more Curry is forced to engage the Celtics’ offensive creators, the more it should open things up for Boston.

There’s no one this should favor more than Jaylen Brown, who is Boston’s best attacker in space and who has shot the ball quite well from three-point range in this series to date.

He has also dished out at least five assists in four of his last five games. If you want to play his over total assists at 3.5, you could, but we like this combo bet with less juice instead.

3.Total Under 214 Points (-110)

While Curry being injured could certainly open things up for the Celtics, there’s also a decent chance it could affect his ability to score. On top of that, Draymond Green seems spent, Jordan Poole seems overwhelmed, and Klay Thompson has had one super hot shooting game this series. Does he have another one in him?

But this isn’t all just anti-Golden State. The Celtics have been like yo-yos when it comes to scoring this playoffs. Their last ten team totals: 116, 88, 120, 100, 103, 93, 102, 103, 127, 107.

Not many of these would seemingly guarantee an over on a total of 214, and if Golden State is struggling to put the ball in the basket, they’ll need to win this game defensively. We think Steve Kerr will have a scheme prepared to neutralize these Celtics as best his team can.

4. Celtics -4 (-108)

It’s hard to see the Dubs taking this one down. The Boston crowd was so hot on Wednesday night, and at this point, they can taste the title. We’ve felt for the entire playoffs that Boston has been the better team against every opponent they’ve faced, and that certainly felt like the case in Game 3.

Golden State will always be dangerous because of the Splash Brothers’ shooting abilities, but against this Boston squad, they either need to have their collective best series ever OR they need help, and when it comes to the latter, that’s not looking terribly likely.

Every game that Boston has won since January 15 has been by at least four points. If you think they’re the better team, you might as well lay these points.