MLB Best Bets: Thursday, May 12

We’ve had good and bad times in baseball this week. We’ve had a no-hitter and an improbable comeback that saw Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor drive in eight runs after the eighth inning.

But reality struck on Wednesday, as we had our first game of the season postponed due to COVID-19, as the Guardians are dealing with an outbreak of the virus that has sidelined manager Terry Francona. Cleveland is off today, and their weekend series at Minnesota–at least the start of it–is up in the air.

For Thursday, it’s the usual partial schedule with 16 of the 30 teams in action; some are finishing up series while others are beginning four-game sets that will go through the weekend.

Let’s comb through things for baseball’s best bets for this Thursday night in MLB.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Bet: Over 8 (Bet MGM)

We were making bank on betting against the Reds -1.5 regularly, but a homestand that saw them go 4-2 changed that. In fact, Cincinnati won more games in the past five days than they had in the first four weeks of the season (three).

But what hasn’t changed is that there have been tons of runs scored in Reds games, as their offense has caught up a bit to shaky pitching. Cincinnati has gone over the over-under total in their last 10 games. In fact, the last time a Reds game went under, the calendar read April.

The Pirates, for their part, have also been going over quite frequently. They played the Reds three times last weekend to high-scoring results, and they have gone over in five of their last seven overall and in six of their last seven against the Reds.

If you’re feeling frisky, parlay the over with a Pirates win, as the Reds have lost 13 in a row on the road, but Pirates pitcher J.T. Brubaker comes into this game with an 0-2 record and a 5.68 ERA, so bet Pittsburgh at your own risk. The over, however, is one of our best bets.

Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins

The Bet: Under 8.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Minnesota’s offense has lagged a bit, and that could get more pronounced with shortstop Carlos Correa landing on the injured list. This is also essentially Game 2 of a doubleheader, as both teams will be finishing up a game that was suspended due to severe weather last night with Houston leading 5-1 in the third inning.

In the four full games of this homestand, Minnesota has scored more than two runs just once, and they’ve put up one run against Houston so far in 12 innings of this series. To add to it, Houston’s pitching has been tremendous, including Justin Verlander taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Twins on Tuesday. Prior to that, Houston swept a four-game series from Detroit, winning the first three games 3-2 and then the final one 5-0.

Luis Garcia (2-1, 3.45) takes the mound for Houston today, and Minnesota counters with Josh Winder, who is 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA in 22 innings pitched. He’s made two starts this year, and has been outstanding in each. In appearances against Tampa Bay and Oakland, Winder pitched six shutout innings in each, striking out a total of 15 batters and walking just one in the two outings.

This game will begin after the suspended game, which is set to start at 1:10 p.m. Eastern time, wraps up. With a solid pitching matchup and runs being at a premium for both teams,  a total of 8.5 allows for plenty of wiggle room in taking the under.

New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox

The Bet: New YOrk +100 (Caesars Sportsbook)

The Yankees are riding high after sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays in a quick two-game series before hitting the road to Chicago to take on the White Sox, who have won seven of their last eight games. They come into this game with baseball’s best record (22-8).

The White Sox come in as the slight betting favorites due to the pitching matchup. Dylan Cease has been the team’s most consistent starter, going 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA and striking out 47 batters in 34 innings. Cease, however, pitched twice against the Yankees last year and allowed a total of eight runs in 9.1 innings pitched over the two outings.

New York went 5-1 against Chicago last season with the only loss coming in the Field of Dreams game in the cornfields of Iowa. Yankees pitcher Luis Gil will be making his first start of the season, but he was solid in six starts last year, going 1-1 with a 3.07 ERA in 29 innings pitched.

The Yankees are 8-4 on the road and despite a lack of big run production in the past week or so, New York has had clutch hits, including a walk-off, three-run home run by Aaron Judge on Tuesday with the Yankees down 5-3 in the ninth inning against the Blue Jays. Chicago is just 8-7 at home, and with New York having won 15 of their last 17 games, it’s tough to bet against the Yankees at this point–especially against a team and pitcher they fared quite well against last year.