MLB Best Bets: Friday, May 13

Gamblers can be a superstitious bunch, and today is Friday the 13th, but the way we look at it, it’s best to power through the bad vibes and envision that it will be a good day. 

Included in that will be some winning baseball bets for you with a full slate of action set for tonight.

We’re hoping that the curse of the day hit us early, as we staked the over in the Reds vs. Pirates game, which ended up seeing Cincinnati throw their first shutout of the season, winning 4-0 and going under the total for the first time in the month of May. 

Fortunately, we backed the under with a struggling Twins offense and that came through in a 5-0 Houston win, and the Yankees bats broke out in a big way as we backed the Bronx Bombers as underdogs at the White Sox in what ended up as a 15-7 win after a seven-run eighth inning.

With some new matchups tonight, let’s take a look at what best bets we have cooking for tonight in MLB.

Seattle Mariners vs. New YOrk Mets

The Bet: New York -1.5, +100 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Max Scherzer will be pitching coming off a loss for the first time in nearly a calendar year when the first-place Mets (22-11) open up a three-game interleague series with the slumping Mariners (14-18). 

Seattle comes into the game with just three wins over its last 15 games and having lost seven of their last eight road games–five of which were by more than one run. Runs have also been hard to come by for the M’s, who scored more than three runs only twice in their last 10 games.

Scherzer comes into this game with a 4-1 record, a 2.92 ERA, and 49 strikeouts in 37 innings pitched. He’s gone at least six innings in each of his last four starts, but the Phillies touched him up a bit over the last two games, scoring seven runs off him and hitting four home runs. Expect the competitive nature of Scherzer to bring him to the top of his game tonight.

The Mariners send Marco Gonzalez to the mound, who is 1-4 with a 3.91 ERA and only 17 strikeouts in 25 innings pitched. The Mets are a good hitting team, so if Gonzalez can’t get punch outs, it could be a long night for the M’s. 

The Mets haven’t lost a three-game series this year, and nine of their last 11 wins have been by more than one run, so getting even odds on a -1.5 bet here is great value.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins

The Bet: Under 6.5, -120 (Bet MGM)

Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes takes the hill for the Brewers tonight, and while he is continuing his dominant pitching from a year ago, he only has a 1-2 record despite an ERA below 2. Milwaukee hasn’t been providing their ace with much run support, scoring just four runs total in his last three starts. Burnes has allowed just three runs and struck out 28 hitters in those three games, but Milwaukee lost each game.

It doesn’t get any easier for the Brew Crew’s offense tonight in Miami with Pablo Lopez pitching for the Marlins. Lopez is 4-1 with a tiny 1.00 ERA. He allowed three runs two starts ago against Arizona, but his other four previous starts were unblemished in the run column, and he’s coming off an eight-inning shutout performance against San Diego last week.

Milwaukee has gone over the total in their last four games, but five games ago was a Burnes start that went under. Miami is coming off a trip out west where they scored three or fewer runs in four of the six games. 

Don’t let the small over-under number deter you here. The odds itself are not even on this number, so oddsmakers are slightly favoring the under, but it’s rare for a game to have the over-under set below six, so don’t be scared off and stick with the under.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers

The Bet: Baltimore +130 (WynnBet Sportsbook)

Expected to lose well over 100 games this season, Baltimore is holding their own so far at 14-18 in a difficult division, and they are coming off a series win at St. Louis as part of a 4-1 stretch. Detroit, on the other hand, was expected to take a bit of a leap this year with some young players coming of age, but the Tigers are just 9-23 and 6-13 at Comerica Park. 

The Tigers are 1-9 in their last 10 games and went 1-4 in a rare five-game series against Oakland during the week. The A’s are 14-19 after fattening up on Detroit, so their record is similar to Baltimore’s. Detroit’s offense has been particularly awful, getting shut out three times in the last 10 games and scoring more than three runs just once in their last 12 games.

The pitching matchup is fairly even, with Jordan Lyles (2-2, 4.05 ERA, 26/11 K/BB) facing Eduardo Rodriguez (0-2, 4.50 ERA, 31/11 K/BB). The offense, however, is very different. Baltimore is hitting .233 on the year, scoring 111 runs and hitting 22 home runs. Not exactly setting the world on fire, but looks like the 1927 Yankees compared to the Tigers’ offense: .220 average, and a league-worst 12 home runs and 88 runs scored.

Oddsmakers are likely expecting casual bettors to see Detroit at home, think Baltimore isn’t a good team, and the Tigers are also sending out an established pitcher for this game. But the differences between the teams’ recent performance couldn’t be more stark, so we can’t take the Orioles as a moneyline underdog fast enough.