MLB Best Bets: Friday, June 3

Things didn’t go the Mets’ way last night, which prevented us from a perfect 3-0 night here at best bets. First, Francisco Lindor was out of the game after catching his finger in a door at his hotel, then the offense couldn’t get anything going in a 2-0 loss to the Dodgers, which was just enough for our Mets +1.5 bet to fail.

Elsewhere, the Angels’ slump continued as they have now lost eight in a row after a doubleheader sweep by the Yankees, and the Padres’ rough trip through the NL Central is continuing with a 5-4 loss at Milwaukee after they allowed four runs in the ninth, knocking San Diego to 0-4 this week against the Cardinals and Brewers.

Tonight, it’s a full slate of action along with several new series starting, so plenty to take a look at as we analyze this Friday night in big-league baseball with our MLB best odds.

San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins

The Bet: Over 8 (Caesars Sportsbook)

The Marlins topped the Giants in a pitching duel last night in a 3-0 victory, as Sandy Alcantara was brilliant once again, throwing seven shutout innings and striking out eight. Alex Wood was the hard-luck loser, giving up just two runs in 5.1 innings pitched. Prior to that matchup, however, these teams were scoring some runs, and tonight’s pitching matchup is well-suited for a slugfest.

Alex Cobb is on the mound for San Francisco, who is 3-2 but with a 5.73 ERA on the season. The Giants have won three of his last four starts, meaning they are giving him run support. His last start was decent, giving up just two runs in six innings at Cincinnati, but prior to that, he allowed six runs to the Mets and seven to the Rockies.

Miami counters with Elieser Hernandez, who is 2-5 and sports a similar 5.77 ERA. He was touched up for four runs in just four innings pitched in his last outing at Atlanta, and he’s gone six innings in just one start this year (on April 17). Hernandez has also allowed 14 home runs this year, which is the third-most among all pitchers this season.

Prior to Thursday’s defeat, the Giants had gone over the over-under total in four-straight games while the Marlins scored 26 runs in a doubleheader at Colorado on Wednesday. We expect the runs to be plentiful enough tonight to go over the total.

San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Bet: Under 7 (Bet Rivers)

It appeared as if San Diego was going to start this series against the NL Central-leading Brewers well after being swept in St. Louis, but Milwaukee scored four runs in the ninth off typically reliable closer Taylor Rogers in what ended up a 5-4 Brewers victory.

Tonight, it’s a tremendous pitching duel with reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes going for Milwaukee against the Padres’ Joe Musgrove, who is 5-0 on the year, and both men sport an ERA under two.

Musgrove hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start all season, and he’s gone at least six innings in each start. While he is due for being touched up at some point, it hasn’t happened in nine starts, so it wouldn’t be wise to bet against that trend.

Burnes has an era at 1.95 despite a 3-2 record, meaning that he’s had trouble getting run support this year. Outside of a rough outing in Atlanta where he allowed four runs, Burnes has given up one or zero runs in four of his last five starts. That includes a six-inning outing in a 4-1 win at San Diego 10 days ago, then in his last start, he went seven shutout innings and struck out 11 in an 8-0 win at St. Louis.

Milwaukee has gone under in seven of Burnes’ 11 starts on the year. The total on this game is sitting at 6.5 at most sportsbooks, but shop around to find that extra run, which is a big advantage for betting the under on a total so low.

Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The Bet: Tampa Bay -1.5, +105 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

The White Sox are coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays, while Tampa Bay returns home after taking the last two of a four-game set at Texas with their ace on the mound.

Shane McClanahan (5-2, 2.01 ERA) goes for the Rays, and he leads the league in strikeouts with 81 and is seventh in WHIP at 0.91. His last outing was a six-inning gem against the Yankees, where he allowed only a solo home run on the scoreboard while striking out seven in a 4-2 win. Tampa Bay has actually won each of McClanahan’s last four starts by more than one run.

Chicago has allowed at least five runs in five of their last six games and send Vince Velasquez to the mound, who will be making his first start in two weeks, where he allowed four runs in five innings against Kansas City. He threw three shutout innings of relief in mop-up duty in a 16-3 loss at Boston last week. Velasquez has allowed 10 earned runs in 13.1 innings pitched on the road this season.

The White Sox ran into a hot Blue Jays team this week, but they have been struggling for most of the season, sitting at 23-26 on the year. The Rays, meanwhile, haven’t seemingly been spectacular, but they are 30-21 and should take care of business tonight with a very favorable pitching matchup against a slumping team.