Houston continues to defy us, as despite going 6-2 against the Mets and Yankees over the past 10 days, but Luis Garcia continued the string of great pitching performances by the Astros in a 2-1 win to finish the stretch at 7-2 as the teams move on to new opponents.
Elsewhere, the Los Angeles Dodgers solved Joe Musgrove–well more accurately, Justin Turner solved him with a pair of home runs–in a 3-1 win over the Padres to open up those teams’ big series.
It’s a full schedule of action for this Friday night to sort through, but we’re doing so to present our MLB best bets for you on this busy night of baseball to start the Independence Day weekend.
The Mets couldn’t solve the Astros over the past 10 days, going 0-4 against the AL West leaders, but New York has still performed well outside of their matchups with Houston, going 5-2 against the Marlins and winning their prior two series against the Brewers and Angels prior to that.
Chris Bassitt (6-5, 4.01 ERA) pitches for the Mets, who has 95 strikeouts in 89 innings pitched. His high ERA is due to a couple of rough starts, including allowing seven runs in 3.1 innings pitched against the Padres on June 8, but in three starts since, he’s thrown three quality starts, including an eight-inning shutout performance against Milwaukee. More impressive, however, is Bassitt’s history against Texas. While with Oakland last year, he was 3-0 in four starts against the Rangers, throwing seven innings in each outing and giving up a total of three runs.
Glenn Otto (4-3, 5.31 ERA) takes the hill for Texas, and he’s coming off a rough start where he allowed six runs in two innings to Washington. He pitched better prior to that but doesn’t strike out many batters, and the Mets are a team that likes to put the ball into play.
The Mets have had two days to stew over a 2-0 loss to Houston that solidified the sweep in their home park, so it feels like a bounce-back game for New York is in order with even odds on the run line.
The Red Sox have played well on the road in this recent stretch of success, and they have done even better against teams outside the American League East. Prior to getting one of a three-game series in Toronto, Boston swept the Guardians in Cleveland.
Rich Hill (4-4, 4.09 ERA) is coming off one of his best outings of the season, going six innings and allowing one run in a win at Cleveland. The veteran should be able to dance his way through a young Cubs lineup.
Adrian Sampson (0-0, 1.69 ERA) makes the second start of the year today after going five innings and giving up two runs against St. Louis. Prior to that, he threw four innings of shutout relief against the Braves, so he has pitched well against decent opponents, but his career ERA is nearly at 5, so the percentages could come back to haunt him here against a solid Red Sox offense.
The Red Sox are one of the better hitting teams in baseball with a .261 team average, and they’re facing a Cubs team that has a team ERA of 4.85. We favor Boston on the road against a weak opponent.
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Bet: Atlanta -1.5, -160 (Caesar’s Sportsbook)
If you have a sportsbook that takes -2.5 on the run line, you can get this game at even odds, which you should consider, but for most that only offer -1.5, this is still a solid bet. The Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have lost eight straight at Great American Ballpark. Atlanta is coming off taking two of three at Philadelphia but suffered a lopsided loss last night.
Former Brave Mike Minor (1-4, 7.71 ERA) pitches for Cincinnati. He’s made five starts this year and hasn’t given up fewer than three runs in any of them. He gave up six runs in five innings of work in a 9-2 loss at San Francisco last Saturday.
Atlanta counters with Max Fried (7-2, 2.77 ERA), who threw 6.2 innings and allowed two runs to the Dodgers in his last game. The Braves have won his last seven starts, and five of those wins were by more than one run.
In their final two games in Chicago, the Reds allowed 23 runs to the Cubs, and with Minor on the mound tonight to go along with their struggles at home, the Braves shouldn’t have too much trouble in this one–regardless of which run line you choose.
We’ve seen some really good (Cleveland!), really bad (Chicago White Sox!), some pleasant surprises (Detroit! Kansas City!), and disappointments (Houston!). And that’s just in the first month of the 2024 Major League Baseball...
Read more A Look at 2024 MLB Futures Odds After an Unpredictable April
If you were paying attention, the Texas Rangers made some big moves during last offseason with the hopes of winning the 2023 World Series. While going on a spending spree doesn’t work for many teams (looking at you, New York Mets and...
Read more Current Playoff Format Making MLB Odds More Unpredictable
MLB’s new playoff format, implemented in 2022, has been a boon for the underdogs in World Series futures odds. Last year, a wild card team (Texas Rangers) won the World Series with preseason odds of +5000. The year before, the...
Read more 2024 World Series Futures Odds: Will an Underdog Win It All Again?
The road to the World Series has been filled with landmines for many odds-on favorites in recent years. Just ask the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers–two teams who have each won over 200 games the past two years but have no...
Read more 2024 World Series Futures Odds: Will a Favorite Cash In?
