2023 World Series Futures Odds Update at Halfway Point of MLB Season

The first half of the 2023 Major League Baseball season is behind us, and it has been a surprising three months for many teams. Many of the preseason World Series odds-on favorites have seen their fortunes for a championship slip. On the other hand, teams considered longshots during spring training are near locks for the playoffs.

We’re going to examine which rising teams are for real and which struggling ones may have a run left in them to reach the playoffs.

First, we’re going to take a look at the current favorites and compare them to their odds from before Opening Day in March. These are courtesy of the BetMGM sportsbook.

Atlanta and Tampa Bay, the two key favorites, are not surprisingly in the best shape to win the 2023 World Series. The two clubs are the only ones in MLB that are in the top five in the key offensive stats (runs scored and batting average) and pitching stat (ERA).

Both teams also have plenty of pop along with hitting for average. As of July 1, the Braves lead MLB with 147 home runs. The Rays are third with 125. In runs scored, Tampa Bay ranks second with 464 (5.53 per game), and Atlanta is third with 441 in four fewer games (5.51 per game).

On offense, Matt Olson has slugged 26 home runs to sit among the league leaders, and Ronald Acuna Jr. is an MVP candidate with a .331 average, 19 home runs, 71 runs scored, and 51 RBI at the halfway point of the season. Bryce Elder is having a great season on the mound–sporting a 2.44 ERA–and while Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton aren’t pitching as well as they did a year ago, they are getting the job done.

For the Rays in 2023, a whopping eight players are hitting above .260, and six are in double-digits in home runs. On the mound, Shane McClanahan is on pace for a second consecutive All-Star game start and a potential Cy Young Award candidate, striking out 100 batters in 93 innings with a 2.23 ERA.

As of right now, we would give the nod to Tampa Bay based on a slightly better pitching roster, especially if closer Pete Fairbanks can remain healthy. We will also get a look at these teams on the field, as they play a three-game series at Tropicana Field next week.

The reigning World Series champion (Houston), 2020 champ (LA Dodgers), and American League runner-up (NY Yankees) haven’t quite lived up to expectations. None of the three lead their divisions, and all are in the middle of tight wild card races at the moment. Among those three, should be believe in any of them?

For the Yankees, the big question mark is the health of Aaron Judge. The slugger is out with a torn ligament in his toe, and there is no timetable for his return. New York has actually been strong on the mound this year. Gerrit Cole is having a solid season, and Domingo German threw the first perfect game in 11 years on Wednesday against Oakland.

But it’s hard to back the Yankees with Judge still being a question mark. Houston’s offense has been uncharacteristically down (11th in runs, 17th in batting average), and the Dodgers’ pitching has been even worse (23rd). Clayton Kershaw is his usual self (2.55 ERA, 105 Ks in 95.1 IP), but the rest of the staff is underachieving. As of now, we would take Houston of these three teams because they have shown the ability to turn it on in October even if they have a regular season that doesn’t quite reach their usual standard.

We mentioned Baltimore as a potential sleeper during spring training, and our thoughts haven’t changed. The O’s have the third-best record in baseball but have World Series odds of +2500. The Orioles are likely destined for the Wild Card round if they do reach the playoffs, but a run at the AL East crown isn’t out of the question. After all, they are just three games behind the Rays in the loss column. Baltimore’s pitching isn’t very strong, but they could acquire a starter or two at the trade deadline and make a big push toward October.

A team that could win its division and get a bye into the NLDS is the Arizona Diamondbacks. Ranking fifth in offense and a strong top of the pitching rotation with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, the D’Backs are another team that might fill some holes in late July and make a solid run.

A quick thought on some surprise contenders and disappointments: