Alabama Future Odds Week 10 (Current Odds: +280, DraftKings)
The college football playoff rankings put the Alabama Crimson Tide at number two overall, putting into the universe the idea that a two-loss Crimson Tide team can still potentially make the CFP. That number will see the Tide trend down to +275 or even +250 if they take care of business against LSU this week.
The Tide still have two legitimate tests left during the regular season, hosting a solid Arkansas team and visiting Auburn. ‘Bama’s best path as a two-loss team would be to lose in the regular season and then knock off number one Georgia in the SEC title games, but that gets very complicated. A loss to Auburn would knock them out of the SEC title game because both teams have just one win. If Alabama lost to any other team, say Arkansas or LSU at home, that would be considered a “bad” loss and would also hurt their chances.
There’s no real way for this number to go up without the Tide losing a game, so if you are an Alabama believer, feel free to grab the +280.
Oregon Future Odds Week 10 (Current Odds: +5000, DraftKings)
The biggest surprise of the College Football Playoff rankings reveal was that the Oregon Ducks were seeded fourth. Most experts were debating between Ohio State and Cincinnati for the fourth spot, but the Ducks, who have the best road win in the country this season, beating Ohio State in Columbus, was given a shocking amount of respect by the committee.
This news moved Oregon from 50-1 to 25-1 in some books. Oregon does not have another chance at a quality win; there are no other ranked teams in the PAC-12, where every team besides the Bucks already has three losses. Oregon will play Oregon State and Utah to end the regular season, which is about the best the conference has to offer right now. The PAC-12 title game will likely also be against Utah, which would not give much help to Oregon.
This number can only get lower, because a two-loss Ducks team will have zero chance at making the CFP. The question is, are the Ducks good enough to win two games against top four opposition if they do make the playoff. The eye test recently says no, but they did beat Ohio State, and that win looks better every week.
Wake Forest Future Odds Week 10 (Current Odds: +10000, DraftKings)
Whatever hope Demon Deacons fans had was probably extinguished by the release of the first CFP rankings. Wake actually finished ninth, which is better than its AP ranking of ten, but the path seems too complicated and the oddsmakers have this number at 100-1.
Even compared to Cincinnati, which can beat SMU and Houston, Wake has limited chances at quality wins, with a game against N.C. State and another at Clemson. A 13-0 Wake team having defeated Pitt in the ACC title game, whose best wins are against N.C. State and Clemson, is probably not getting in over a two-loss Alabama squad.
Their 100-1 odds mean that the oddsmakers feel that there is no realistic chance for the Demon Deacons to finish in the top four. If Wake Forest wants to play in a four team playoff in the future, they simply can not schedule Army, Old Dominion, and Norfolk state as their out of conference opponents.