Best College Football Bets September 18th

Every relevant CFB team has played at least two games and we are now able to discern which teams are for real (hello, Alabama and Georgia) and which teams may have been wildly overrated (Ohio State, Iowa State, LSU, to name three). This is moving week for many teams, who have a final chance to make a non-conference statement before starting their conference slate next week. Could Penn State be the cream of the Big Ten East? Is Florida a legitimate competitor for Florida in the SEC? Can Notre Dame beat anyone by more than 3 points? We will get those answers Saturday.

(Last week’s record: 3-2)

Auburn @ Penn State

The Bet : Auburn +6 (-105, DraftKings)

A pair of ranked 2-0 teams will face off in Happy Valley on Saturday. Penn State is a -6 home favorite and the Nittany Lions are more battle tested, having gone into Wisconsin and defeated the Badgers 16-10 while Auburn has feasted on Akron and Alabama State, averaging 61 points per game in those blowouts. 

These teams last played in the 2003 Capital One Bowl, with Ronnie Brown leading Auburn to a 13-9 victory over Penn State. 

Penn State is 6-0 in its last six games, dating back to last season, and is 6-0 ATS in that span. The Nittany Lions were +5.5 underdogs at Wisconsin. 

Auburn covered in both blowouts and has now covered in seven consecutive September games. 

Bo Nix has put up impressive numbers for Auburn thus far, with 383 passing yards and a 5:0 TD to INT ratio. Nix has already hit five different Tigers for scores this season. Jarquez Hunter and Tank Bigsby have combined for 498 rushing yards and 4 TD so far, as the team is rushing for a massive 9.6 yards per carry. The Auburn defense has only allowed 10 points this season and has accumulated 8 sacks. 

The Nittany Lions QB is Sean Clifford who has thrown for 477 yards and 2 TD with no interceptions. Noah Cain has chipped in with 117 yards and 2 TD on the ground, while Jahan Dotson has 167 receiving yards and 2 TD. 

These teams seem relatively even and Auburn is arguably more talented, so the line is too high. Take Auburn, who is likely to win outright. 

Alabama @ Florida

The Bet : Florida +15 (+109, 888Sport)

The Bet : Under 58.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)

The game of the week will feature a cross SEC divisional matchup between the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide and the #11 Florida Gators. Florida is a +15 home underdog.

These teams faced off in the SEC title game just nine months ago, with Alabama winning 52-46. The line on that game was Alabama -16. All 7 Alabama touchdowns came at the hands of players who are now starting in the NFL, in Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith, and Najee Harris.  

Last week, Nick Saban predicted all week long that the Crimson Tide would take Mercer lightly, and they did, but the final score was still 48-14. Alabama thrashed another Sunshine State team, Miami, in Week One, 44-13.

The Gators have defeated a pair of in-state rivals thus far, dispatching FAU 35-14 and South Florida 42-20. 

Alabama QB Bryce Young has played like a Heisman contender so far this season, completing 70.8% of his passes, while throwing for 571 yards, 7 TD and no INT. Running back Brian Robinson Jr. is carrying the ball for 5.9 yards per clip 

The Gators have a QB controversy brewing, with current starter Emory Jones having thrown  4 interceptions already this season. Jones has thrown 49 passes to Anthony Richardson’s 11. Richardson has run 11 for an amazing 275 yards so far. Jones is the Gators’ second leading rusher, carrying the ball 23 times for 155 yards. 

This is arguably the hardest game on Alabama’s regular season slate, which also includes trips to Texas A&M and Auburn. Florida is set to play the top two teams in the country this year, with Georgia on the docket later this year. 

Florida has the ability to win this game, and while they likely won’t, this line is just too high. 

Purdue @ Notre Dame

The Bet : Purdue +7.5 (-110, Bet MGM)

The Bet : Under 58.5 Points (-105, DraftKings)

Notre Dame currently has a lot in common with the Dallas Cowboys. Every game comes down to a field goal, the team seemingly moves the ball effortlessly on offense, but can’t defend the pass at all. The Irish have squeaked past Florida State and Toledo by a field goal each, needing overtime to get past the Seminoles. 

Purdue opened their season with a 30-21 win over Oregon State, covering the -7 line and then rolled over UConn 49-0. The Boilermakers are led by Jack Plummer who has thrown for 558 yards and has 6 TD passes against 0 INT. The Boilermakers have a pair of solid pass catchers in WR David Bell (14 catches for 255 yards and 3 TD) and TE Payne Durham (11 for 174 yards and 3 TD). 

Notre Dame is a -7.5 favorite in most books right now. The Irish failed to cover in both the FSU and Toledo games. Notre Dame is 7-0 in its last seven games with Purdue, but the last matchup was way back in 2014. 

Jack Coan is averaging over 300 yards and 3 TD per game so far this season. The Irish have allowed 67 points in two weeks to a pair of unranked teams. They have been able to rush the passer, recording 10 sacks, but their pass defense has been suspect. As a team, Notre Dame is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. 

Purdue and Plummer will be able to move the ball all day against the Irish. Notre Dame might pull out another 3 point win, but asking for a -7.5 cover is asking too much from a team that couldn’t stop Toledo.