Best Bets for Under-the-Radar Bowl Games

Since the College Football Playoff began, there are two categories of bowl games: the semifinal matchups and the rest.

Sure, the New Year’s Six games like the Rose Bowl and Orange Bowl are prestigious, but it has still featured teams who have star players sit out in order to preserve their NFL draft status.

Due to these uncertainties, there is often great value in some of the bowl games prior to New Year’s due to matchups, motivation, and other factors.

We’re taking a look at three of these best bets for the non-playoff bowl season in college football.

The Pick: Louisiana +7

The Ragin’ Cajuns find themselves a touchdown underdog to Houston of the American Athletic Conference, but Louisiana rallied to win its final two conference games by wide margins to be bowl eligible. Louisiana also beat Marshall (who has a win over Notre Dame) and narrowly lost to Conference USA front-runners South Alabama and Troy. 

Houston, behind quarterback Clayton Tune, is averaging 10 more points per game than Louisiana, but the Ragin’ Cajuns are only allowing 22 points per game compared to the Cougars allowing 33 per contest. The strength of UL’s defense is also on the passing end, giving up 219 yards through the air on average. The Cougars finished the year 7-5 but are coming off a 37-30 loss at home to Tulsa, and they’re just four games removed from losing 77-63 to SMU. 

Cougars head coach Dana Holgorsen also comes into this game with a 3-6 record (2-7 against the spread) in bowl games, and the contest taking place in Louisiana (Shreveport) should also provide a boost to the Cajuns to at least keep the game within one score. 

The Pick: Wake Forest -1

Missouri rallied to upset Arkansas at home in their final game to become bowl eligible, and they also own a 23-10 win on the road over South Carolina and gave No. 1 Georgia its toughest battle, falling by just four points to the Bulldogs back in October. 

Wake Forest finished the regular season losing four of their last five games, but offense wasn’t a problem in any of those games. They also fared well against the top of the ACC: a win over Florida State, a double-overtime loss to Clemson, and a two-point loss to Coastal Division champion North Carolina. Sam Hartman lived up to expectations by throwing 35 touchdowns this year and over 3,400 yards despite missing the first game. He threw for over 300 yards in eight of his 11 starts.

There are two key points here: the first is that Wake is allowing nearly 30 points per game, but Mizzou is putting up just 25 points per contest. The other is that the Tigers will be down four starters on the defensive side of the ball thanks to the transfer portal. The Demon Deacons, on the other hand, will have Hartman and all their other key players, so we see that as the difference in a matchup with a tight spread that has actually shrunk to -1 after opening at -2.5.

The Pick: Under 42

In a bowl season with over-under totals routinely in the 50s and 60s, this matchup with a total of 42 stands out. But looking at the teams’ statistics and recent performance, it’s easy to see this going under.

Both teams are averaging 28 points per game, but each struggled against good defenses. Cuse is allowing 22 points per game, but Minnesota’s average of 13 points per contest is tied for third in the nation. Even more impressive for the Golden Gophers is that they have that low average despite allowing 20, 26, and 45 points in a three-week stretch to Purdue, Illinois, and Penn State, respectively. Since then, Minnesota hasn’t given up more than 16 points, and they pitched a shutout against Rutgers and held Northwestern to three points.

The Orange were held to under 10 points in two of their last four games, but quarterback Garrett Shrader didn’t play in a nine-point effort against Pittsburgh. Syracuse’s offense came back to life in their last two games, but they were against subpar defenses in Wake Forest and Boston College. Also expect these two teams to run the ball often, which will keep the clock running. Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim has 1,594 yards and 19 touchdowns on the year, while Syracuse has a 1,000-yard rusher in Sean Tucker, and Shrader is also adept at running the ball.