When Will LeBron James Break The Scoring Record?

After missing two weeks of play in November and starting the month of December slowly, LeBron James has turned it on as of late and is on pace to break the all-time NBA scoring record before the All-Star break.

A 28-point scoring effort in a 129-110 win over Orlando on Tuesday snapped a seven-game streak where James scored at least 30 points, and his average for the season sits at 27.8 points per game.

That puts James at 37,786 points in the middle of his 20^th season in the NBA. The all-time leader, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, has 38,387 points in 1,560 career games. James is at his point total after just 1,392 contests.

Abdul-Jabbar is the final name on the list for James to surpass. Over the past few years, he’s jumped over the likes of Karl Malone, Kobe Bryant, and Michael Jordan—obviously among the best of the best in NBA history. 

James needs 602 points to break the record. With an average of 28 points per game, he would break the record 23 games from now. 

Let’s handicap some bets that are available from James’ quest for the record.

Two reasons to shade the over are injury concerns and rest. James has missed eight games due to injury this season, and given his age, he may still get some rest on back-to-back games.

Looking at the schedule, there is one back-to-back to look at where the Lakers play the second game on the road: Jan. 7 at Sacramento, which is one night after the Lakers host Atlanta. There’s another back-to-back on the road on Jan. 30-31, when the Lakers are in New York to take on the Nets and Knicks. Given James’ affinity for playing in Madison Square Garden and the Nets being one of the most star-studded teams in the league, he will probably play both of those contests. In addition, don’t expect James to get too many rest days at home. 

If James sits one game and otherwise remains healthy, game 24 will be Monday, Feb. 13 at Portland. At that point, the question would be whether the team would want such a historic moment to take place on the road. The next two games would be at home: Feb. 15 vs. New Orleans and then after the All-Star break on Feb. 23 vs. Golden State.

In the two 82-game seasons that he’s played for LA (not counting the two Covid-shortened seasons), James has played in 55 and 56 of the 82 games. This year, he’s missed eight games for a Lakers team with futures odds of +10000.

If James continues on his current pace, he could break the record sooner. For example, if he averages 30 points per game, he would break the record in his 21^st game. Looking at the odds on picking which game the record will be broken, that would net a nice payday.

The outliers here provide the most value. If James continues on the pace that he’s set the past two weeks, he could break it in Game 21 or before. If he has an injury setback—which history has shown is possible—it could be later than Game 27. 

The Pick: Our strategy would be to take over 24.5 on totals bet and then select the two outliers at +1400 and +1000 for the best value on the exact game bet.