After a pair of Game 7’s disappointed on Sunday, we’re ready to move on to the conference finals. The East opens things up with the Celtics at Heat tonight. With just one game on the slate we have a pair of best bets picked for Game 1 in Miami.
Boston @ Miami
The Bet: Heat -1.5 (-110, Bet MGM)
The Bet: Under 204 Points (-110, DraftKings)
Miami is definitely the more rested team heading into Game 1. The Heat finished off their second round series on Thursday giving them three extra days of rest compared to Boston, which wrapped up its series on Sunday.
Boston had to come back from 1-0, 2-1, and 3-2 deficits to eliminate the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. Miami knocked out the Philadelphia 76ers in six games.
The Celtics won their first two matchups against the Heat this season, by a combined 47 points, and Miami took the most recent matchup, a 106-98 win on March 30 as a +5 road underdog.
The Celtics have covered in an amazing nine straight road games, but we’re saying that streak ends tonight. Miami is the fresher team, they’re also at home, so while we can’t guarantee they’ll win the series, we can say they’ll win tonight.
The spread is more favorable than the moneyline tonight, so we’ll take the Heat at -1.5 rather than Miami at -122 outright.
As far as the over/under is concerned, the Heat went under tonight’s total of 204 three times in six games. In Boston’s seven game series with the Bucks, three games went over, three games went under, and one game pushed. What we’re saying here is that the oddsmakers NAILED this total.
There are some positive trends for the under, however. Unders are 9-2 in the last 11 Heat games. These teams played three games in the regular season and two went under, including a 95-78 contest in November. In none of the three games did the losing team hit triple figures.
The number might make sense, but these teams won’t be nervous on the big stage, we’re hammering the under tonight.