Can Kyrie Win MVP?

Nothing moves the needle quite like anything having to do with Kyrie Irving, one of the most popular and polarizing players in all of American sports. 

Now that he has told the Brooklyn Nets that he will opt-in to the final year of his contract, several questions remain … not the least of which is the last one we are about to present …

1. Will Brooklyn trade him now that he is on an expiring contract?

2. If he is traded to one of the six teams on his wish list, will that team become a championship contender for 2023?

3. Is he worthy of an MVP futures bet right now with his odds listed at +9000 and higher?

That last question is the most meaningful for sports gamblers, as the futures lines for the 2022-23 season are now on the board at U.S. sportsbooks with Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavs favored at odds averaging +475, Nikola Jokic of Denver at +10000 to win the award for a third straight season, and Steph Curry at +1700 now that he has added the NBA Finals MVP award to his trophy case. 

If your crystal ball is clear, this is the time to put some money in play if you have the patience to wait 10 to 11 months to see if your wager hits. Sounds painstakingly time-consuming, but think of it like stashing some cash away for your vacation; or dropping some funds into your 401-K or your child’s 529 college savings account. It is stash-away money, and the odds are too enticing to sit this one out. So with that thought in mind, let’s go over the Irving situation, how it may play out and which players aside from him might be wager worthy as we head toward July.

Social media, ESPN and every functioning water cooler in the New York metropolitan area was buzzing Monday night and Tuesday morning with chatter about Irving, who informed the Brooklyn Nets that he would be picking up his $36.5 million player option. He has until Wednesday to file the paperwork, but that is just the beginning of the story.

The Los Angeles Lakers were reportedly the only team on Irving’s wish list interested in doing a sign-and-trade deal with the Nets, and trade talks could be revisited if Nets owner Joseph Tsai decides he want to move on from Irving and put some different pieces around Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons. If you operate under the assumption that you must expect the unexpected, then you have to make a leap of faith that Irving could be MVP worthy in Brooklyn, L.A., or someplace else.

“He just needs to stay healthy. He has that potential, and I have seen it firsthand,” said Channing Frye, a teammate of Irving’s with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2016-17. If h is healthy, he is amazing person and teammate to be around. Sometimes you just get stuck watching. And he speaks his mind, so I admire that. He is Kyrie all the time, which is why it is amazing to be his teammate.”

Of course, Irving is not the only player in the race, and his quixotic personality does not exactly endear him to everyone. But voters ultimately vote on two primary quantities: Performance, and a narrative. Performance speaks for itself, and it is safe to say that Irving will have to appear in almost all of the 82 regular-season games to even be in the discussion, especially after sitting out 53 game last season because of his refusal to take a COVID-19 vaccine. He played in only 54 games the prior season and just 20 in 2019-20. His career-high for games played is 75 in his fourth season when he was with the Cavs.

Narrative is the storyline that captures voters’ imaginations over the course of the season, and it is safe to say — especially after what we have seen these past couple of days – that Irving will be closely watched whether he is in Brooklyn or elsewhere. If he is the Kyrie we got used to seeing in his latter years in Cleveland and his two years in Boston, he’ll own one major narrative.

Shopping around in the futures market is paramount at this time of year because different books have different odds. On Jokic, for example (who would be the first three-time repeater as MVP since Larry Bird from 1984-86), Fan Duel has him at +1200, BetMGM at +900, Caesars at +850, Play Sugarhouse and Betway at +1000. 

The highest odds we have seen on Irving are +15000 at Play Sugarhouse.

Let’s break down the field, starting with the favorites and then picking out some star players with longer odds.

Luka Doncic: A worthy favorite because he is a triple-double machine and quite possibly the single most talented stat producer in the Western Conference. But stats are one thing; winning is another. And the bar has been raised for Dallas after they made the Western Conference finals. Doncic is a one-man show in Dallas, but the Mavs may need to win the West for him to get MVP.

Joel Embiid: He finished second last season and was openly campaigning for the ward, but Jokic carrying the Nuggets when their second- and third-best players were injured won out. If healthy, he will be in the conversation all season.

Giannis Antetokounmpo: The MVP in both 2019 and 2020 may have some different members of his supporting cast if the Bucks decide to move Khris Middleton. Because he has already won twice, he will need to overwhelm voters with something new and improved.

Kevin Durant: With all of the drama that has been playing out in Brooklyn, he will need to be so strong and so steady that he turns this from a train wreck into a success story. But if Irving is alongside him, that makes it tougher for both of them.

Nikola Jokic: Three in a row is very, very tough, and Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray are expected back. 

Steph Curry: Was a back-to-back winner in 2015 and 2016, and plays for a team that tends to coast through the regular season. Like Giannis, might have to do something new and different.

Jayson Tatum: It will take a lot to erase the memory of his no-show in most of the NBA Finals. His stock is down.

Ja Morant: Won Most Improved Player after having already won Rookie of the Year, which you never see. Voters tend to try to reward him in some way, shape or form. The Grizzlies are very young and very good, but Morant might only have to improve upon his 34.4 percent 3-point shooting and have his team be top 2 in the West to win. A very strong candidate.

Kawhi Leonard: Coming back from a missed season after ACL surgery, has the talent but also will be sharing the spotlight with Paul George and John Wall.

Devin Booker: After Chris Paul faded in the late stages of the second round against Dallas, Booker will likely have more of the spotlight with the Suns. They are a good No. 1 in the West pick, and that always helps. Will have to improve his 26.8 ppg average.

LeBron James: Might have won the scoring title at 37 if he had played in the Lakers’ final two games. At high odds (30-1 at Fan Duel), he is always worth a wager.

Very high odds: 

Jimmy Butler: He is 60-1 at Fan Duel and showed in the playoffs that he is a true alpha dog. Was 29th in scoring last season and missed 25 games. Not the worst bet ever if Miami wins the East again.

Anthony Davis: He is 65-1 at Fan Duel, which would not be the case if he had not missed 42 games. If Russell Westbrook is gone, his chances improve because he can produce the way he did in New Orleans.

Damian Lillard: Off the grid somewhat in Portland, he is still appreciated for his talent. But team would need to be top 3 at a minimum.

Donovan Mitchell: Let’s see if he stays in Utah. He was not happy with Quin Snyder’s departure. If traded to a team that he leads from the depths, he has a shot.

Zach LaVine: The top free agent out there, could have a shot under the above Mitchell scenario if he lands somewhere other than Chicago. He is out there at +16000 and above.