The Atlanta Braves Are World Series Contenders – If They Can Just Fix That Bullpen

Last season, the Atlanta Braves had a 3-1 lead on the eventual World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. 

Blowing that lead was obviously a disappointment, but the Braves seemed primed to dominate the NL East for the near future. Ronald Acuna Jr is one of the biggest young stars in the game, Freddie Freeman is an exceptional power-hitter, and the Braves lineup has scored more runs than any other team in their division. Losing Acuna for the season due to a torn ACL is certainly devastating, but Atlanta does still have enough offense to contend and a competitive NL East.

Combine that high-powered offense with a starting rotation that includes stars Max Fried and Ian Anderson and quality veteran acquisition Charlie Morton and Atlanta seemed like a sure-bet to contend for a World Series title this season.

Things haven’t gone as planned, though. The Braves have also given up the most runs in the division and have fallen below .500 and into third place in the NL East as of July 7. They’ve been as low as fourth in the division this season.

So, what has gone wrong? The bullpen, mainly. Atlanta’s starting pitching has been solid, and their +16 run-differential is actually best in the division, which suggests that the Braves have had their share of hard-luck losses. 

Shane Greene, a stable reliever with a sub-3 ERA last season, didn’t rejoin the team until the season was already underway. In 12 appearances, his ERA is over 10. His struggles have been noticeable, but he’s far from the only problem.

Atlanta lost depth in the offseason with Darren O’Day and Mark Melancon both leaving in free agency. Seeing Melancon lead all of Major League Baseball in saves for the Padres so far this season is particularly painful. A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek, Will Smith, and Josh Tomlin have all been worse than they were last season when Atlanta had a reliable bullpen. 

The Braves have blown 13 saves this season and their 4.64 bullpen ERA is the ninth-worst in baseball. They’ve also only picked up saves in 18 games, which is also in the bottom third of the league.

The starters also aren’t completely off the hook. The bullpen has had a bigger workload because the team’s starters aren’t going as deep into games as they were a season ago. 

Atlanta has been one of the streakiest teams of the season so far, right from the beginning. They lost four straight games to open the season, then won four straight, then lost four straight again. They’ve had six losing streaks of three or more games so far this season. They’ve also had winning streaks of three or more games six times. But they haven’t won or lost more than four in a row all season, so they can’t seem to get all of their components playing well at the same time.

There’s still hope they can turn things around, though. Their division is the most competitive in baseball, with all five teams still having legitimate shots at a division title. Just 8.5 games separate first from last place as of July 7, and the Braves are only a half-game out of second place and 4.5 out of first place. 

The Braves are currently in the midst of a 13-game stretch before the All-Star break that includes 10 games against NL East rivals Miami and New York. So far, they won three of four against the Mets and two of three against the Marlins, with three more to go against Miami before getting a rest.

“There’s always a turning point in the season and as many games as you play against the other teams in the division, if you can stay 4-5 games back you have a chance,” former Braves pitcher Greg McMichael told Atlanta radio station 92.9 The Game. “You sweep one series and all the sudden your team hits your stride. Momentum has a lot to do with your team and you really just got to get to the point where your team has confidence. We’ve seen it the last three years, when this team gets clicking they’re as good as anybody. Everybody is just kind of waiting for that to happen and you never know what series is going to do that for you.”

With several teams in other divisions looking like better bets to get the NL Wildcard spot, Atlanta probably needs to win the division to have a shot at the playoffs and build on their near-breakthrough last season.