MLB Best Bets: Thursday, May 19

Have you checked up on your Mets fan friend today?

Fans of New York’s National League club are always anxious about the other foot dropping when things are going well, and the first-place Mets last night had a moment riddled with anxiety after Max Scherzer pulled himself out of the game in the sixth inning after throwing his 87th pitch.

Scherzer said it was something in his left side, and he doesn’t believe that it’s terribly serious, but he will be heading to the MRI tube today. This is not great news for a team that’s already missing Jacob DeGrom and Tylor Megill from the rotation. Despite winning 11-4 over St. Louis, Mets fans could use a check-up text or phone call today!

Maybe you can cheer them up by passing along today’s best bets for our Thursday in MLB baseball while you’re at it?

Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians

The Bet: Over 8 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Reds still have the worst record in baseball at 10-26, but they have won six of their last 10 games, winning when scoring four or more runs. Cleveland has played some low-scoring contests recently, but today’s matchup seems ripe for runs.

Tyler Mahle (2-4, 5.89 ERA) has been worse on the road this year, allowing 13 runs in 18 innings away from Great American Ballpark (6.50 ERA). His last outing in Pittsburgh was good (6 IP, 2 ER) but he was touched up for four runs in 3.1 innings pitched in his prior road start in Milwaukee.

The Guardians will throw Cal Quantrill (1-2, 3.93 ERA). He’s pitched at least six innings in his last three starts, but he gave up four runs his last time out at the Chicago White Sox and three runs prior to that against San Diego.

Plenty of trends favor the over, including the teams going over in each of the last five head-to-head matchups and the total going over in seven of the Guardians’ last eight home games.

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The Bet: Philadelphia -114 (Wynn Bet)

The Phillies and Padres have traded 3-0 in the first two games of this series at Citizens Bank Park going into Thursday’s rubber match. Yu Darvish takes the mound for San Diego against Philadelphia’s Kyle Gibson.

Darvish is the more well-known commodity here, but he’s struggled mightily on the road this season, putting together a 7.91 ERA in four starts compared to a 1.37 ERA at home in three starts. His last time out, he allowed five runs in 5.2 innings pitched in Atlanta. A difference has been a lack of strikeouts on the road, getting just 14 of his 32 punchouts away from Petco Park despite having four of his seven starts in away games. The Phillies rank third in hitting in all of baseball, so expect them to take advantage if Darvish is shaky.

Gibson has a 4.10 ERA on the season but is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA at home. He was battered by the Dodgers on the road in his last start, but he’s allowed just four runs combined in his three starts prior to that, and Philly has won Gibson’s last four starts.

The Phillies have won nine of their last 11 against the National League West, including winning a four-game series at the Dodgers in impressive fashion over the weekend. Expect Philly’s bats to perform here and pull out a win.

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles

The Bet: Baltimore +1.5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)

The Yankees have an MLB-best 28-9 record, have won nine of their last 10 games, and are 7-2 already against the Orioles this season. Shockingly, New York pitcher Jordan Montgomery–despite having a 3.06 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.08–does not have a win in 2022. The Yankees lineup is daunting, but they just haven’t been able to give Montgomery enough run support, and they have lost three of his last five starts.

Baltimore, who has lost six in a row, sends Bruce Zimmermann to the mound, who is putting together a nice season so far, going 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 36 innings pitched. Zimmermann allowed three runs in 4.1 innings pitched to the Yankees last month in the Bronx, but in a start at Camden Yards on April 17, he didn’t allow a run in five innings of work in a 5-0 Orioles victory.

New York has won the first three games of this series, but the last two came by just one run. The Orioles took a three-game set against the Yankees here last month, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see them pull out a win with a solid pitcher on the mound, and getting nearly even odds for an extra run provides a cushion while still getting solid value on the O’s.