How a Shortened Major League Baseball Season Could Affect MLB Betting in 2022

While it’s beginning to appear like Opening Day in Major League Baseball will not take place on March 31, 2022, as scheduled due to a lockout of the players by its owners amid continued labor struggles, there is one best bet you can take to the bank even without any games being played: there will be MLB games this year, and what’s happening now will have an impact on betting odds and trends for however much of an MLB season that there is.

Let’s take a quick glance at the issues that have wedged themselves between the players and owners:

• Forbes reports that the combined value of the 30 MLB teams is around $55 billion, which is an increase from $15 billion 10 years ago. Despite that, the average salary of an MLB player has dropped in each of the last four seasons.
• Players are looking for a larger increase in the amount teams can spend on player salaries before they are penalized via a luxury tax.
• Players would prefer that the MLB Draft order is decided by a lottery instead of the worst teams getting the top picks, as they think that this would help prevent teams from tanking.
• Players are also looking for additional concessions in how service time is calculated (which the owners seemed to have agreed to) and in the salary arbitration process.

How We Got Here

The current lockout began in early December, just around five weeks after the 2021 World Series concluded with the Atlanta Braves prevailing over the Houston Astros in six games.

Teams moved quickly to fill managerial and general manager vacancies, knowing that the work stoppage was looming. In addition, some big free-agent signings took place–pitcher Max Scherzer to the Mets, shortstop Javier Baez to the Tigers, and shortstop Corey Seager to the Rangers to name a few.

But the lockout put a stop to all signings, trades, and other potential transactions.

Once a collective bargaining deal between the owners and MLB Players Association is reached, there will be just about one month before opening day. MLB says that the agreement will take three days to be ratified, and then clubs will have around four weeks of spring training before the regular season begins.

Looking at this from a betting perspective, there are three things to focus on: how will a shortened spring training affect players and teams, what changes to the season would affect teams’ chances of success, and what will happen between now and the season starting.

Let’s take a look at each one more closely, and then we’ll look at the MLB betting picks for the World Series (as it stands on March 1).

Effects of a Shortened MLB Spring Training

Teams say that the three-week camp (with no exhibition games) in 2020 wasn’t enough for players, as there were more injuries than usual once that shortened season began. While an extra week will help, we still may see injuries among pitchers. After all, pitchers and catchers normally report to camps closer to six weeks before the start of the regular season.

If they are brought along at the same pace, we will see starting pitchers not go as deep into games during the first month of the regular season.

The other group of people to watch are free agents who haven’t yet signed to a team. If it takes a week or two for Freddie Freeman, for example, to sign with a team, how far behind will he be when he reports to the camp of his new team? If he re-signs with Atlanta, it won’t be a huge deal. But if he chooses a different club, he will have a limited amount of time to get familiar with his new teammates and coaches.

And speaking of coaches, teams with new managers (like Buck Showalter with the New York Mets) are also likely to be a bit behind the 8-ball during a shortened spring training. Players will have less time to work with their new coaches, and a learning curve like this could make a big difference when it comes to the first few weeks of the regular season.

What Changes Will There Be to the 2022 MLB Season?

If you recall in 2020, two major fundamental changes to the sport were in effect: there was a designated hitter used in both leagues instead of just in the American League, and the playoff field was expanded from 10 to 16 teams.

Things returned back to normal in 2021, but this year, it’s expected that the universal designated hitter will be a permanent thing going forward. This is good for National League teams, as it will give them a better offensive player or two, and it also helps keep pitchers healthier since they will not have to hit or run the bases.

The expanded postseason field is another change that’s expected to be taking place moving forward, but the players have hinted that they will not approve an expansion from the current 10-team format if any regular season games are missed.

This is a move designed to cost MLB money, as it’s estimated that ESPN would pay around $100 million to broadcast the extra round of games.

But competitively, it hurts teams that might not otherwise make the playoffs. Even though in 2020, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays, the top seed in each league, made the World Series despite having to win an extra round of the postseason to get there, adding teams to the playoffs just adds more chances for chaos. Fewer teams in the playoffs is better for the betting favorites. And it’s also tougher to back a dark horse because a team that might not win its division will only have two wild-card spots to fight for instead of five.

What Will Happen Between the End of the Lockout and MLB Opening Day?

Several key players will be on the move. We already mentioned Freeman, but longtime Dodger and future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, and shortstop Carlos Correa are also free agents that can be a difference-maker for any club they join. In addition, a free agent like Nick Castellanos will have more destinations if there is a universal DH, as he would typically be slated for that role moving forward. Rumor also has it that Oakland will be looking to part ways with one or both of their sluggers in Matt Olson and Matt Chapman.

One thing is for sure: the complexion of how teams look now versus how they will look on Opening Day is likely to be far different. Will the Dodgers be odds-on favorites if they lose Kershaw and MLB rules to suspend pitcher Trevor Bauer? Will the New York Yankees jump in the odds if they make a big free-agent splash after being relatively quiet in November and early December?

A Look at MLB Futures Betting Odds

Of course, if you’re looking to bet on the 2022 World Series winner now, you can. Sidelines has the list of the best odds for each team here. Let’s take a look at six teams’ odds and how they might change from now until Opening Day given free-agent signings, trades, and other factors.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers, +600 (UniBet)

The Dodgers, the 2020 World Series champions, fell to Atlanta in the NLCS last year after both Kershaw and Max Scherzer were either unavailable or limited due to injuries. The team already lost Scherzer, may lose Kershaw, and also lost shortstop Corey Seager. The team is still loaded, but a competitive National League West could also impact LA’s chances of reaching the playoffs if the field isn’t expanded to 16 teams. Verdict: Pass, as +600 isn’t great value, especially if they lose Kershaw.

2. Houston Astros, +1000 (FanDuel)

Houston showed in each of the last two years that it didn’t have to dominate in the regular season in order to do well in the playoffs. After qualifying as a Wild Card in 2020, Houston took Tampa Bay to the seventh game of the ALCS before losing, and the Astros won the AL pennant in 2021. Even if they lose Correa, Houston’s pitching should be improved with the return of Justin Verlander. Oakland will contend again but may lose two of its biggest offensive weapons, and while Seattle nearly made the playoffs last year and the Angels added pitcher Noah Syndergaard, it would be tough to imagine Houston not making the playoffs. Verdict: Hold for now. Due to a slow start in the last two regular seasons, there may be better value in Houston come the summer, but we definitely like their chances.

3. Chicago White Sox, +1100 (FanDuel)

The White Sox have a young and exciting core of players, and while they won the AL Central last year under manager Tony La Russa, they went down in just four games to Houston in the first round of the playoffs. Chicago, however, returns much of the same team, doesn’t have an immediate challenger in the division, and will certainly learn from their postseason flameout in 2021 if they are to return this year. Verdict: Buy. If they begin to run away with the division like they did last year, these odds will only go down from here.

4. New York Mets, +1150 (Sugar House)

The Mets made the splash of all splashes by making Max Scherzer the richest pitcher in baseball history, pairing him up with Jacob DeGrom. If the two stay healthy, New York will be quite the force, especially in a playoff series. But even with new veteran manager Buck Showalter, the Mets still have to get there. Their offense underperformed last year, and outside of the top two in the rotation, there are question marks, as the team lost Marcos Stroman and Noah Syndergaard, so an injury to either Scherzer or DeGrom could be bad enough to cost them a playoff spot. Verdict: Avoid, unless the Mets beef up the rotation further between now and opening day.

5. Toronto Blue Jays, +1200 (FanDuel) 

The Blue Jays improved by 24 wins from 2019 to 2021. Their offense and pitching both improved at an impressive clip. They, however, did lose two major pieces in Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray. Cavan Biggio will be expected to soften the blow of losing Semien, and they are in the market for either Olson or Chapman from the A’s. Even though they finished well behind Tampa Bay and just missed New York and Boston in the AL East, their odds are even with the Yankees and ahead of the Red Sox and Rays, so if the playoffs don’t expand, there are only a finite number of playoff spots available to these teams. Verdict: Avoid for now. Odds aren’t likely to get any lower if they start the season well.

6. San Diego Padres, +1600 (UniBet)

The Padres made a ton of moves last offseason, and while they all looked good on paper, not many paid off. Starters Blake Snell and Yu Darvish dealt with injuries and inconsistency, while in-house pitcher Dinelson Lamet was injured nearly the entire season. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. had good seasons, and the rest of the offense should improve. It’s hard to imagine that trio of starting pitchers being any worse than they were in 2021, and Joe Musgrove–another acquisition before last season–actually did play well. Veteran manager Bob Melvin was also hired to help right the ship, and he comes from having plenty of success in getting Oakland into the playoffs. Also add on that San Francisco, coming off a shocking 100-plus win season in 2021, is likely to regress back to their statistical norm after wildly overachieving a year ago. Verdict: Buy now, as value will only go down if they play well early in the season.