Betting Strategy for the MLB Playoffs

Learn the best baseball betting strategies including how to read MLB odds and make the right MLB picks this playoff season in time for the World Series.

One of the biggest advantages you have in betting on a specific game of a series during baseball playoffs is the amount of data you have at your disposal to discover betting trends before making your picks.

In the earlier rounds of the playoffs, teams will have played each other during the regular season anywhere from six to 18 times, meaning that there’s a lot of data to pull from. Another advantage of the playoffs is that teams will generally stick with the same lineup—with the possible exception of switching out some left- and right-handed hitters depending on pitching matchups.

Teams tend to announce starting pitchers at least a day in advance as well, so you can see how they’ve performed over the past month or against that particular team during the regular season. It’s also good to know that some otherwise average pitchers excel in the playoffs while great pitchers during the regular season sometimes struggle when the pressure is on.

Another MLB betting tip that can pay off (literally) is knowing which offensive players are playing well as the playoffs approach. Has a star hitter really turned it on in August and September? Or alternatively, does a player have good statistics overall, but he was much better in the first half of the season and then slumped after the All-Star break?

Also take home-field advantage into account. Some teams win the vast majority of their games at home but are just a .500 club on the road. Odds will generally reflect this and give a bit of an advantage to the home team when all other statistics are equal, but looking back at how teams performed depending on where they played all season can be advantageous to the bettor.

These are all items you can research once playoff matchups are made, which is what MLB betting is all about.

The drama ramps up early in the Major League Baseball playoffs with the Wild Card games. There are three division winners in the American and National Leagues, and the two best teams in each league after the division winners are wild card teams. The AL and NL wild card teams play in a winner-take-all game to start the playoffs, and the winner faces the best team in each league in the Division Series. The other Division Series in each league pits the other two division winners in best-of-five series. In this series, the team with the better record hosts Games 1 and 2, goes on the road for Games 3 and 4, and the decisive Game 5, if necessary, is played back at the team with the better record. By and large, MLB betting lines tend to most be dependent on the location of the game and the starting pitchers.

The two Division Series winners in each league square off in the AL and NL Championship Series—commonly referred to as the ALCS and NLCS. These are best-of-seven series where the winning team must win four games to advance to the World Series. The homefield advantage is as follows: Games 1 and 2 at the team with the better record, Games 3-5 at the other team’s stadium, and then Games 6 and 7 back at the site of Games 1 and 2. It’s said that a team wins their league’s “pennant” by winning a League Championship Series.

The playoffs culminate with the World Series in a matchup between American League and National League champions. The World Series follows the same format as the LCS as far as home field advantage goes; the league champion with the better regular season record hosts Games 1, 2, 6, and 7.

At most stadiums during the season, teams play in front of crowds less than their full capacity, and the atmosphere is more relaxed. The playoffs, on the other hand, tend to be played in sold-out stadiums in front of excited fans, and every game is on national television. Making MLB picks and bets just adds to the excitement!

There are several different ways you can make MLB bets during the playoffs. You can bet on an individual game, a set of games on a specific day (parlay), or the winner of a specific series or the World Series as a whole.

Here’s a description and an example of each kind of wager:

As we discussed earlier, there are several factors to take into account before confidently taking advantage of your baseball betting opportunities. Throughout the course of a season, teams may be on long road trips, resting players, or starting an inferior pitcher. These are generally factors that don’t occur in the playoffs—teams are more likely to be on an even playing field. Some baseball betting tips you do want to consider are homefield advantage, their head-to-head performances earlier in the season, injuries, players on hot and cold streaks, and their league rankings over several different statistical benchmarks.

You’ll want to take a look at not only how a team performed on offense during the season, but against the team they’re facing and also whether they’ve been hot or cold offensively in previous playoff rounds or at the end of the regular season. Remember, teams can meet up to 18 times during the regular season, giving you plenty of data on how they fare against their opponent.

Historically, scoring is typically down in the playoffs. From 2003-2018, runs were down from 9.5 runs per game during the regular season to 8.8 in the playoffs. Just taking the World Series into account, that number drops to 7.8. This is usually because there are better pitchers in the playoffs. Take a look at how the teams playing performed in previous playoff appearances, if applicable.

We talked about how teams are nearly always better at home than on the road. Some may perform better than others, so do your homework to see how big the disparity is. In 2019, St. Louis made the playoffs but was only 41-40 on the road, compared to 50-31 at home. That same season, Minnesota was 46-35 at home and a surprising 55-26 away from home.

Because baseball is played every day, it’s possible for momentum to carry over from one game to the next. A good example of this is that once teams fall behind in a series, it’s very difficult for them to catch up. Teams that fell behind 0-2 in a seven-game series lost 73 of 87 times in MLB history. Of all the teams that fell behind 0-3, only one ever game back to win that series, which was the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees in the 2004 ALCS. Houston attempted to become the second team to do it last year and became the second team to even reach a Game 7 under that scenario, but they lost to Tampa Bay in the final game of the ALCS.

Oddsmakers will pay attention to these trends and shift the line if a team ends up having a bigger advantage. The biggest reasons for this to occur would be for a change to the starting pitcher or a major player being left out of the lineup due to injury. If there is any reason that you find about a player being a game-time decision, you may want to wait until the starting lineups are posted (generally three to four hours before the game’s first pitch) before placing your bet.

A confident and informed bettor is (hopefully) a winning bettor, so we hope you’re able to use these strategies and information to use as an outline as you do your research before making informed MLB playoff bets. And even if it’s not playoff time when you’re reading this, please check our MLB futures betting page to see if you want to try your luck on any division winner, league champion, or World Series futures bets—it can give you a great reason to root for a certain team throughout the season!