Explaining The Point Spread

There are many popular forms of sports betting, but the king of them all is betting against the spread. Other betting options such as the moneyline or the total (over/under) are also very popular, but if you hear people discussing sports betting in general, they’re usually talking about the spread.

The point spread is a way to make every game even from a betting or odds standpoint. If one basketball team is significantly better than the other, it wouldn’t be fair or realistic for them to both have the same betting odds on which team will win the game.

So, oddsmakers set a spread, or line, that makes it essentially even for people to bet on both sides. The line makes it so that the better team needs to win by a certain amount, and not just win outright. When you are looking at a spread, there will be one team with a minus (-) symbol in front of their odds. That team is the betting favorite. The underdog will have a plus (+) symbol in front of their odds. So, if it says “Celtics -8.5”, that means the Celtics are favored to win by 8.5 points. If it says “Hornets +8.5”, that means that you are betting on the Hornets to either win outright, or at least lose by fewer than 8.5 points.

Here’s how the results breakdown:

Betting the spread is more popular in higher scoring sports like football and basketball where there is a wider range of outcomes, and teams often win by large margins. In baseball, almost 30% of games are decided by one run, and in hockey that number is closer to 50% of games decided by one goal. lower scoring sports have different ways of setting up their point spreads, and generally the moneyline or total is a more popular bet.

Each sports book or casino has a group of people who set the odds for every game, called bookmakers, or oddsmakers.

Their goal is not necessarily to predict each game correctly, but to predict which number they could set that will get exactly 50% of the betting action on each side. Here are a few things the oddsmakers look at when determining the spread:

Let’s use a randomly selected NFL game as an example to better understand point spreads and how they work.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 13.5 point favorites against the Denver Broncos. You would generally see that listed as -13.5 for the Chiefs or Broncos +13.5. A minus symbol (-) always indicates the favorite, while a plus symbol (+) means a team is the underdog. This means that the Chiefs are expected to beat the Broncos by at least 14 points. Remember, in point spread, you are not betting on the winner but on the margin of victory.

So, if you bet on the Chiefs and they win the game, but by less than 13.5 points, you would lose that bet. If you bet on the Broncos you would win the bet if they win, OR if they lose by 13.5 points or less. A Chiefs 28-17 sounds great for Kansas City, but that’s a winning bet for Denver.

Additionally, you will often hear the expressions “giving points” and “getting points” with regard to points spread. The favorite is always giving points, while the underdog is getting points. So, in this game, the Chiefs are giving 13.5 points and the Broncos are getting 13.5 points.

Duke is a 3 point favorite over North Carolina in a college basketball game. If Duke wins by more than 3, they won the game against the spread. If North Carolina wins the game, or loses by fewer than 3 points, then they win against the spread.

But, what happens if Duke beats North Carolina by exactly 3 points? That is what’s known as a push, essentially a tie.

Bettors who picked Duke and bettors who picked North Carolina are refunded 100% of their money. Nobody wins or loses on a push.

Of course, if a spread is a half number, ie. 5.5 points, then a push is impossible.

In the example we gave above, the Kansas City Chiefs are 13.5 point favorites over the Denver Broncos. But with every point spread comes betting odds. So, the Chiefs are 13.5 point favorites, and that bet is listed at -110. What does that mean?

Moneyline odds, or American odds, are numbers that are 3 or more digits, that have a plus (+) or minus (-) sign in front of them.

American odds are always based on a bet of $100, regardless of whether you are betting one dollar on an over/under or one thousand dollars.

So, using the Chiefs-Broncos game as an example, if you bet $100 on the Chiefs -110 means you are risking $110 to win $100 in profit. On most sites, the Broncos are also -110 at +13.5 meaning, you would also be risking $110 for every $100 you bet.

So, if you bet $110 on the Broncos (and again, $100 is just a default number, you could bet one dollar or one thousand dollars) and they cover the spread, you would get back a total of $210, meaning $100 in profit.

If arithmetic is less your style, be sure to use Sidelines’ Over Under Calculator to help you calculate your potential payouts!

While the numbers for this particular game are both -110, frequently a game will have different betting odds for the favorite and underdog.

If the number is much higher on one side, say, -120 on the Chiefs and -106 on the Broncos, that would mean that much more money is being bet on the Chiefs and the oddsmakers are trying to even out their risk, by making the Broncos number more appealing and the Chiefs number less appetizing.

A parlay is a bet that combines multiple bets together into one bet. You can bet on two teams against the spread, you can even bet on every single team playing on an NFL Sunday to cover the spread, and they are both examples of a parlay. To win a parlay bet, all of your different picks would need to win, so betting on two or three games would be far more likely to win than a bet on ten games.

However, parlaying multiple bets increases your potential amount of winnings, so every bet you add to your ticket will add exponentially to your prospective payout, assuming 100% of your bets in that parlay are winners.

Suppose you want to parlay the Chiefs covering against the Broncos by 13.5 points, and the Bears to cover a 2.5 point spread against the Lions. Both of the favorites are -110, meaning if you were betting the games separately, you would be risking $110 to win $100. However, if you parlay both games you would be risking $110 to win $290.91. If you wanted to add the Steelers as 7 point favorites over Washington as a third bet in your parlay, Pittsburgh has -105 odds. So now, your $110 bet on a three-way parlay would payout $672.73. With every bet you are increasing your risk, but also increasing your potential winnings.

But remember, you need to win all of your bets in a parlay, even winning 5 bets out of 6 is the same as winning 1 bet out of 6, so be careful with the size of your parlays.

There are dozens of points spread strategies that have been popularized over the years, but it’s worth discussing 5 of the most common strategies, including: waiting until the last second, focusing on units, shopping for the right spread, paying attention to line moves, and ignore silly theories.

We will explain them in order, from the most simple to the most complicated.

We have discussed many different concepts and strategies above, but not all strategies work for every sport.

A concept might win frequently in NFL betting, but it could have no value for NBA betting, and vice versa. Some people love betting on NFL teams coming off a bye week, especially if they have a good coach, but there’s no apples to apples comparison to NBA betting. On the flip side, people love betting against NBA teams playing back-to-back games, or three games in four nights, but there is no real NFL equivalent. Similarly, most gambling related weather rules have zero relevance for NBA betting, since it doesn’t snow inside NBA arenas.

If you are a baseball fan, before you bet you should familiarize yourself with runlines, which is essentially the MLB betting equivalent to a points spread bet. The run line for MLB games is almost always -1.5 runs, so you would be betting on the favorite at -1.5 runs or the underdog at +1.5 runs. Of course, the actual odds of these bets vary wildly depending on if a team is a slight or major favorite.

Whatever your preferred strategy is, make sure you do all the research necessary to place the best bets you possibly can. The best bet is an informed bet.