Week 12 NFL Picks

After opening up 1-4, Washington has won five of their last six games and the Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in that span. 

The Jaguars have won once since September. They have also covered just once since September. 

Fun fact: The Jets have not covered against the Bears since 1997. 

The Bears have lost their last three games, by 3, 1, and 3 points. Ignore this pick if news breaks that Justin Fields isn’t playing.

When I was kid I went to a Jets-Bears game on Sunday Night Football that had two notable features: First Johnny Johnson had a Jets record 90 yard rush, and the Jets didn’t score on the drive. Two, the Bears wore the worst jerseys in NFL history.

The Titans were -4 home favorites in last year’s playoffs, when they lost to the Bengals 19-16, despite sacking Joe Burrow nine times. 

The Dolphins have just one win by 13.5 points all season.

The total for this game is 36 points, which sounds low until you realize that overs are 1-9 in Broncos games this season. 

The Browns have allowed 30+ points four times in the last six games. The Bucs have scored 22 or less in six straight games. Who will bend first? 

The Chargers are a .500 team, treated like a Super Bowl contender. The Cardinals are a 4-7 team treated like a .500 team. 

This could be Josh McDaniels last chance to save his job. 

Two teams that have taken wildly different approaches to the ‘flags fly forever’ concept. The Chiefs’ future odds are +450 and the Rams are +25000 to win it all.

What a quiet year from the 4-7 Saints. It feels like they are barely in the NFL right now. 

The Packers have pretty quietly played a tough schedule. Their last three wins are against the Bucs, Patriots, and Cowboys, while they have losses in that span against the Titans, Bills, Jets, Giants, and Commanders.  

Mike Tomlin is getting 2.5 points against Jeff Saturday.

(Thanksgiving Games, Already Picked)

The Lions have lost five straight games on Thanksgiving Day. The last time these two teams played on Thanksgiving was in 1994. The Lions won 35-21 as Dave Krieg threw for 351 yards and 2 TD. 

The Cowboys have won ten of their last eleven games against the Giants and have covered in nine of those wins, including a 23-16 win as a +1 road underdog with Cooper Rush in September. This spread is just 2.5 points too high. 

A pair of teams that each scored 3 points on offense last week square off. As for the defenses, what’s worse: allowing 3 points to Zach Wilson or 40 to Dak Prescott?

This week 2-1

Best Bets (Season): 11-10