Top Ten Super Bowl LV Prop Bets

By Sidelines Staff   February 3, 2021 

Top Ten Super Bowl LV Prop Bets

The sheer number of different Super Bowl LV prop bets this week is astronomical. There are more bets available for the Super Bowl than an entire regular season week of NFL betting action. Want to bet on how many tackles Sean Murphy-Bunting makes? There’s a prop for that (take the under at 4.5 tackles at -125). Do you want to bet on how many different Chiefs will catch a pass? There’s a prop for that (take the over 7.5 at +127.) There are so many prop bets to compare and analyze that it could take a person all week, so let’s just go over the top ten prop bets to make for Sunday. 

10. Tom Brady OVER 295.5 yards passing (-112)

Brady went over 295.5 eight times during the regular season, including, most importantly, a 345 yard day against the Chiefs in their November matchup. As far as Super Bowls are concerned, Brady has gone over that number four of nine times, but in three of his last four he has thrown for 328 or more, including a record 505 in the loss to the Eagles three years ago. If the Bucs win, it will be because Brady played well, and if they lose he might need to pass 45-50 times, so this feels like a solid bet.

9. Jersey Number of First TD Scorer: UNDER 24.5 (-103)

If you look at the list of players with jersey numbers under 25 versus over 25, the talent is relatively evenly split. But, the over bet is -121, while the under bet is -103, so the value is with the under. 

Key players with jersey numbers 24 or under: Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, Mecole Hardman for the Chiefs plus Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, and Tom Brady for the Bucs. 

Key players with jersey numbers 25 or over: Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams for the Chiefs. plus  Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski for the Bucs, plus almost every defensive player on both teams. 

8. Chiefs to have OVER 1.5 sacks (-152)

The Chiefs averaged exactly two sacks per game during the regular season, with 32 on the year. They have two sacks in five games against the quality offensive lines of Cleveland and Buffalo. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay allowed 22 sacks in the regular season and has allowed five sacks in three playoff games. This number just seems too low, and if you are on board with the idea that Kansas City will win then Tom Brady is likely to throw the ball 40+ times, giving the Chiefs ample opportunity to top 1.5 sacks. 

7. Mecole Hardman to have more receiving yards than Rob Gronkowski (-109)

Hardman’s over/under for receiving yards is 28.5 while Gronk’s is 29.5. Hardman had an eventful AFC Championship game with a costly punt return fumble, a 50 yard run and only 4 receiving yards. However, Hardman had 58 yards in the Browns game, while Gronk only has 43 receiving yards in three playoff games. One swing pass could give Hardman enough to beat Gronkowski for the game, so that’s the play here. You can also get Hardman for the game’s longest reception at +700. 

6. Vita Vea to have the game’s first sack (+1150)

Bucs DT Vita Vea missed three months after being injured in Week 5, but came back in the NFC Championship to play half the defensive snaps as the Bucs sacked the Packers five times. Vea had two sacks in the five regular season games he played and is facing an injury-depleted Kansas City offensive line. Vea is a star when healthy so the +1150 is a gift since the number would have been +600 had he been healthy all year. 

5. Tom Brady longest completion OVER 39.5 yards (-112)

Brady went over 39.5 at least once in the last five games of the regular season, then again in the NFC Championship against the Packers. He has shown he can still throw the deep ball when needed and the Bucs may have saved a trick play or something with Chris Godwin for the Super Bowl. 

4. Tyler Johnson to have the longest reception of the game (+3300)

This is the longshot bet of the game. Tyler Johnson has 12 catches all season, but he had 35 yard grabs in two different regular season games this year. Despite Tampa’s exceptional WR depth, Johnson has a catch in five of the last six games and will be getting one of the Chiefs lesser corners covering him every time he steps on the field. Roll with a small money +3300 bet here and you have something for your whole Super Bowl party to root for (even if that’s just your immediate family this year.)

3. Travis Kelce to score the first TD of the game (+600)

You can also bet on Kelce to score the final TD of the game at the same odds, but if you think Kansas City will win, it might be Tampa Bay scoring a late TD on Sunday. Kelce has seven TD catches in his last five playoff games and the question is more when he will score than if, so the +600 number feels too generous to pass up. 

2. Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes to throw the same number of TD passes (+425)

This is one of those bets where the odds almost look wrong. Brady and Mahomes each threw the same number of TD passes last week. When they played in November, they each threw three TD passes. It’s also a fun bet to root for without necessarily worrying about who is winning. 

1. Chiefs to win by 1-6 points (+255)

Excluding the Week 17 game where Kansas City rested all of its starters, the Chiefs have won by 1-6 points in eight of their last nine games. If you like the Bucs to win, their 1-6 number is +325, but +255 for the Chiefs stands out as the single best value on a massive board this Sunday. 

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