Current best odds: +550 (DraftKings)
The Cardinals might have the best record in the NFL, but it is the Buffalo Bills that are now the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +550. The Bills opened their season with a surprising 23-16 loss to the Steelers, but four straight dominant wins over Miami, Washington, Houston, and Kansas City have shown that was a first week fluke.
This week Buffalo goes to Tennessee for Monday Night Football where they are a -5.5 favorite. The Bills then have a bye before a cupcake stretch against the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Jets, three bottom tier teams currently. Buffalo’s only game with a team that is currently a favorite to make the playoffs comes in December at Tampa. What we’re getting at here is that Buffalo is exceedingly likely to be the top seed in the AFC postseason and the lone team in the conference to get a bye.
How low can this number go? The Bills are likely only going to be an underdog one more time all regular season and with no other dominant AFC team a 13-4 record, which looks very realistic could probably earn Buffalo a bye.
Current best odds: +1500 (DraftKings)
Speaking of teams that could earn a playoff bye, not enough people are talking about the Dallas Cowboys potentially having the best record in the NFC. Dallas is 4-1 and plays a high-profile but eminently winnable game at New England this week.
Like Buffalo, the Cowboys lost a road game week one before winning four straight games. The Cowboys have paired impressive wins over Carolina and the Chargers with divisional blowouts over the Eagles and Giants.
The schedule is not easy, per se, with trips to Kansas City and New Orleans and a home date with Arizona, but there are many winnable games, including a Washington-Giants-Washington stretch in December.
There is definitely serious room for this number to drop, if Dallas beats New England, then this number could drop to +1200 by the time they play again in Week 8. If you believe in Dallas, then this is a rare chance to get a good number on the NFL’s most popular team.
Current best odds: +8000 (DraftKings)
It’s hard to remember the last time the Seahawks were bad (it’s actually been a full decade since they did not have a winning record, they went 7-9 in 2011 and Russell Wilson took over in 2012) but it might be happening this year. The Seahawks are 2-3, in the toughest division in football, and are missing their superstar QB for about a month.
This would be Pete Carroll’s most impressive if he can keep Seattle afloat until Russ returns. The good news is that they play three winnable games and then have a bye, after which it’s realistic for Wilson to be back. Can Seattle go 2-1 against the Steelers (on the road) and then at home against the Saints and the Jaguars? It’s certainly possible, they are +5 at Pittsburgh on Sunday night but will be favored in the two home games unless Geno Smith is disastrously bad in Pittsburgh.
If they only go 1-2 in that stretch, they would be 3-5 at the bye, looking at games with the Packers and Cardinals coming out of the bye. Seattle still has dates with Chicago, Detroit, Washington, and Houston, so if they can tread water until Wilson comes back, this number could end up being a good deal. However, Seahawks skeptics would point out that Wilson returning won’t magically transform one of the league’s worst defenses.