It took an extra day than usual to work out where every NFL team’s Super Bowl future stood after Week 15, but we got there.
For now, there’s a tier of three (Kansas City, Green Bay, Tampa Bay) that the market puts a lot of equity into, and after that is where the fun really starts, especially after a topsy turvy week full of strong wins by teams that needed them and some shocking losses by teams that made us doubt them.
Current Best Odds +2000 (Bet MGM)
Well, well, well. An old friend, the Indianapolis Colts. They have been dropping like a rock in the futures market for weeks now as they’ve rattled off impressive win after impressive win – which collectively have garnered star running back Jonathan Taylor some MVP buzz.
The Colts have won five of their last six games, including a beatdown of Buffalo in Week 11 (41-15) and a pretty dominant effort against the previous red hot Patriots on Saturday night (27-17).
Following that game, they saw their Super Bowl futures odds drop from +3000 to +2000. They have three very winnable games left (at Arizona, home against Vegas, and at Jacksonville), which could bring them to 11-6 on the season, and depending on how things break, it could also deliver them a surprising division title. Hard to believe for a team that started the year 1-4.
Current Best Odds +1800 (DraftKings)
It’s been mostly bad news out in the desert for a while now. After starting 7-0, the Cardinals have gone just 3-4, including losses in their last two games.
The defeat vs. the Rams is understandable – a tough division opponent that they were facing with an arguably still not 100% Kyler Murray at QB. But the loss at Detroit last week was ominous, and the market agreed. The team’s Super Bowl future dropped all the way from +850 to +1800.
It’s possible the team will right the ship, but they’ll have to do it without DeAndre Hopkins for the rest of the regular season. And the especially scary thing is that there isn’t a slam dunk victory left on the Cardinals’ schedule. They host Indy this week, followed by a trip to Dallas in Week 17, and a regular season finale against division rival Seattle.
Current Best Odds +4000 (Borgata)
Sometimes, it comes down to just one play. For Jim Harbaugh and the Ravens, their season might come down to two.
Over their last three games (which were all losses), two of them came down to failed two-point conversion attempts very late in the game by Baltimore that led to one-point losses. Converting just one of those plays would have the Ravens positioned atop the AFC North. Converting them both would have them tied with the Chiefs for the conference lead. Failure to convert this week sent their Super Bowl odds tumbling from +3500 to +4000 or worse.
Instead, they sit outside the AFC playoff picture currently and have as tough a schedule (at Cincinnati, vs. the Rams, vs. the Steelers) to close the season as any of the teams they’re competing with. Former league MVP Lamar Jackson is expected back for the game against the Bengals this week, which should help, but the fact remains that Baltimore’s path to Super Bowl LVI is a lot tougher having dropped these two close games than it would be with a win or two.