The One Super Bowl LVII Bet You Need To Make

With the very thrilling Pro Bowl Flag Football Game in the rearview mirror, we have no more excuses. It’s down to crunch time. Philadelphia Eagles v Kansas City Chiefs. East v Midwest. Sirianni v Reid. Jason v Travis. We have one NFL game left for the 2022 season.  Hey Google, play It’s So Hard To Say Goodbye To Yesterday by Boyz II Men. Or Dust In The Wind by Kansas, if you’d rather back the AFC’s best. Let’s all cross our fingers for a good one, a classic, a game that inspires smiling conversations for years that start with “Hey…remember that first Mahomes/Hurts Super Bowl? That was awesome”.

Year after year, the Super Bowl tops the list of most wagered upon sporting events. Sharps pore over prop bets, willing to throw down five figure wagers on such generational wisdoms and assurances like “tails never fails”. Children learn how to bet on the NFL, and then text their parents important information like “my numbers are AFC 7 NFC 3!!”.

Every Super Bowl party I have attended since Steelers/Packers in February 2011, I have come equipped with what I call The Prop Quiz, a list of 15 yes/no/multiple choice questions about the big game intended to be able to be completed by the most novice of football knowledge. If you are looking for action on Super Bowl Sunday, there are countless ways for you to flex your pigskin prognosticating prowess.

So what should you be betting on? I’ve spent a lot of time poring over my online sportsbook of choice, Draftkings. With such an even matchup (Philly is currently favored by 1.5), I would stay away from betting the result if you’re looking for real value.

There’s no question that the signal callers for both teams are some of the brightest stars in the league and surely to finish amongst the top three in MVP votes, but your mileage may vary with your opinions on their banged up bodies this Sunday. How do you feel about the health and mobility of Patrick Mahomes and his pass catchers? Are you confident in Jalen Hurts’ ability to make a big play with his arm, something he hasn’t had to do a lot of in Philly’s path to Arizona?

I’ve filibustered long enough. Or have I? First, before I hit you with my favorite, I’ll give you two bonus bets that I like on Super Bowl Sunday.

Is Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes a magician? Sure is. He’s been on the brightest stage in previous Super Bowls and handled himself with aplomb. But there’s also no question Mahomes is compromised. Philadelphia’s front four has been a strength for them all season and continued into the postseason, sacking Daniel Jones five times and Brock Purdy/Josh Johnson two-headed-monster three times. Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, and Brandon Graham are poised and ready to create some havoc in the Super Bowl. Why not from snap one? And if the Eagles start with the ball? Chris Jones and Frank Clark are no slouches either.

Without question, Eagles Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Gannon has been preaching the importance of not letting number 87 in red beat them. Nice idea, John. But execution may not be as easy. Travis Kelce will get his and I love De’Vonta Smith to do the same. Tee Higgins had his way with the KC secondary as the Robin to Ja’Marr Chase’s Batman. History repeats itself. 

Yes, Kansas City RB Jerick McKinnon has had a quiet 2022 postseason. McKinnon is yet to find the end zone and has only accumulated 43 rushing and receiving yards combined in wins over Jacksonville and Cincinnati. But keep a long memory, sports fans. Jerick McKinnon became one of Mahomes’ favorite targets out of the backfield in the second half, scoring nine touchdowns (eight through the air!) in KC’s last six regular season games. Something tells me that the Philadelphia defense, who is only a Matt Breida and Christian McCaffrey touchdown run away from having a clean sheet in the postseason, will be seeing McKinnon find pay dirt before the half.