NFL Schedule Release: Who Caught A Break And Whose Path Got Harder?

The NFL has reached its goal of turning itself into a 12-month sport despite only playing games for less than half of the year. 

There’s free agency in March, the draft in April, and the schedule release in May. Sprinkle in some offseason workouts, and before you know it, teams are reporting to training camps in July. 

The 2022 NFL schedule came out last week, and based on bye weeks and how certain games fall, some teams are going to be happier than others about the path that’s been set for them.

We’re taking a look at two teams who caught a bit of a break and two others whose chances to meet expectations got a little more difficult thanks to the schedule-makers. 

BENEFICIARIES

New York Giants: 32nd Rank in Strength of Schedule

The Giants‘ schedule is set up to have them in the playoff conversation if new head coach Brian Daboll can get something out of quarterback Daniel Jones and his fortified offensive line can keep him healthy (and create more holes for Saquon Barkley). 

The first six games have some challenges–opening at Tennessee, Dallas at home on a Monday night, against Green Bay in London, and hosting Baltimore, but if the G-Men can get home wins over Carolina and Chicago, they can sit 2-4 going into a stretch where their next four games are all against last-place teams: at Jacksonville, at Seattle, vs. Houston, vs. Detroit. 

New York could realistically be 5-5 going into a Thanksgiving matchup at Dallas, and if that’s the case, they could find another couple of wins to reach their over-under total of seven. 

Detroit Lions: 28th Rank in Strength of Schedule

The Lions were 3-13-1 last year but were 10-7 against the spread, indicating that their games were closer than expected. The team believed in what head coach Dan Campbell was selling and overcame some brutal early-season losses to play hard for him the rest of the year. 

Detroit opens 2022 with three winnable home games (Philadelphia, Washington, and Seattle) in their first four, and their only road game in that stretch is at Minnesota–a team they beat in Detroit last year and lost to thanks to a last-second field goal on the road. A tough middle of the season follows, but there’s a six-week stretch at the end of the year that features games against Jacksonville, both New York teams, Carolina, and Chicago and the Vikings at home. 

Looking at the over-under total of 6 for Detroit sounds ambitious for a three-win team a season ago, but a potential 3-1 start and 4-2 finish would get them there. 

BAD LUCK OF THE DRAW

Las Vegas Raiders: 3rd Rank in Strength of Schedule

Derek Carr’s a pretty good quarterback, but an argument can be made that he’s the worst QB in his division. When you’re in the AFC West with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson, that’s a lofty bar to reach.

The Raiders made the playoffs last year, so they’ll face some tougher teams outside the division too, and Las Vegas was very inconsistent last season before rallying around interim coach Rich Bisaccia. It remains to be seen if new head coach Josh McDaniels can make the offense more consistent (Davante Adams should help too), and he will have to right off the bat in order to not risk the season spiraling out of control early.

The Raiders open at the Chargers then host Arizona (a playoff team), visit Tennessee (last year’s No. 1 seed in the AFC), host Wilson’s Broncos, and then play at Kansas City on Monday night. It’s not a huge stretch to see Las Vegas 1-4 or even 0-5 at that point, which would make it difficult for them to reach their over-under win total of 8.5, as they would have to go 8-4 or even 9-3 to finish after a bye in Week 6. 

Now, things get easier following the bye with games against Houston, New Orleans, and Jacksonville, but December provides some non-division challenges with games at the Rams and Steelers and home against the Patriots and 49ers. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 26th Rank in Strength of Schedule

Looking at the opponents, Tampa Bay doesn’t have a brutal schedule, but with an over-under of 11.5 wins, the way the season starts off could be difficult for the Buccaneers. 

Tampa Bay opens up with games against division winners the first four weeks–at Dallas on Sunday night in Week 1 then hosting Green Bay in Week 3 and Kansas City in Week 4. The other team in the mix is at New Orleans, a team that Tom Brady is 1-4 against as a Buc. 

Other potential pitfalls in the schedule are home dates with Cincinnati, Baltimore and the Rams (Brady is 0-3 against the champs over the past two seasons) and tough road games at Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and San Francisco. 

Fortunately for Tampa Bay, four games against Carolina and Atlanta should be victories, but with such a difficult slate outside the division, the Bucs don’t have a lot of margin for error if they are going to win 12 games again.