The NFL reached its new midway point this week, and NFL Odds show that this is one of the most wide-open seasons in recent history. Teams continue to jockey for position atop the conference standings, while others jostle for a Wild Card berth.
Week 9 was particularly strange, as four division leading teams lost, with three of those loses coming to teams with losing records. The Jacksonville Jaguars scored the biggest upset of the week, defeating the heavily favored Buffalo Bills 9-6. The Denver Broncos surprised many as well, sending the Cowboys their first against the spread loss.
Road underdogs covered eight games last week, with five of those getting outright victories. Seven games featured at least a touchdown spread, but only one of those favorites managed to cover. All told, the Underdogs took Week 9 10-4. Over and Under each hit seven times.
NFL Bye Weeks continue in Week 10, with four teams getting to enjoy a free weekend. Off this week are the Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, and Houston Texans.
The Baltimore Ravens play the Miami Dolphins to open the NFL Week 10 slate of games on Thursday Night Football in South Florida. The Ravens enter this one after another thrilling comeback resulted in the team’s third come-from-behind victory this season. Their recent run has moved them ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs in the Futures Odds for the AFC Championship. The Dolphins, meanwhile, ended a seven-game losing streak in their ugly Week 9 win over the Houston Texans.
The Baltimore Ravens (6-2, 3-5 ATS) have become the comeback kids. Baltimore rallied from down 14 points in the third quarter and eventually snagged a 34-31 win in overtime. Lamar Jackson led the way once again, completing 27 of 41 passes for 266 yards, with three touchdowns and two interceptions. He also carried the ball 21 times for 120 yards. This win marked the third time this season Jackson’s led the Ravens back from double-digit deficits to get a win.
Baltimore’s defense took a beating in Week 7 against the Cincinnati Bengals, allowing 41 points. Then, after their Bye Week, the Ravens defense didn’t look any better, surrendering 17 points to Minnesota. But Baltimore’s D shored up in the second half, limiting the Vikings to 114 yards after halftime.
The Miami Dolphins (2-7, 3-6 ATS) escaped Week 9 with their second win of the season, defeating the Houston Texans 17-9 despite committing five turnovers on the day. The Dolphins lost three fumbles, and quarterback Jacoby Brissett, starting in place of an injury Tua Tagovailoa, threw two interceptions. But the defense stymied the Texans, who got Tyrod Taylor back for the first time since Week 2. It was the NFL’s most turnover filled game in more than five seasons.
Brissett completed 26 of 43 passes for 244 yards and a touchdown to go along with those two interceptions. Brissett also lost one of Miami’s fumbles. He may get the start in this one, considering the short turnaround for a Thursday Night game.
The offensive line continued their struggles, allowing four sacks of Brissett and near constant pressure. The o-line also couldn’t create running lanes for Dolphins backs. The team finished with 47 rushing yards on 25 carries, a 1.9 yards per carry average. It’s the seventh time this season Miami’s finished with less than 100 rushing yards
The Dolphins’ defense is finally trending in the right direction. This game against Houston marked its second-straight solid outing. They forced four turnovers in this out and kept the Texans from scoring a touchdown.
The last time these two teams played, Baltimore beat down the Dolphins in Miami, winning 59-10. The Ravens had 42 points at the half in that 2019 contest. Baltimore has covered its last nine games against the Dolphins and outscored them 137-16 in the last three meetings.
The Ravens sport a 13-2 straight up record when favored by more than a touchdown since 1995. That said, Baltimore is 1-3 against the spread in their last four victories in that scenario, including a 19-17 win this year at Detroit, when they were favored by 7.5 points.
Three of Baltimore’s six wins have come by a field goal or less, while another came in overtime. That said, the Ravens have won 15 of their last 16 games against sub-.500 opponents. They’ve won those contests by an average of 16.9 points per game.
The Dolphins have scored 20 points or fewer in seven of their nine games this season, including five of their last six. Miami’s offense doesn’t generate big plays, as the Dolphins became just the third team in the last 23 seasons to not have a 50-yard pass play or 25-yard run in any of its first nine games.
The Atlanta Falcons play the Dallas Cowboys in this matchup of NFC rivals at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Falcons snagged another close win to even their record, while the Cowboys absorbed their first home loss of the season.
The Atlanta Falcons (4-4, 4-4 ATS) took home a 27-25 win thanks to another Younghoe Koo field goal as time expired. It’s Atlanta’s third win by three points or less this season. The Falcons went up 24-6 in this one before New Orleans stormed back, but a big pass play from Matt Ryan to Cordarrelle Patterson helped set up the game-winning field goal.
Ryan threw for a season-high 343 passing yards, connected on two touchdown passes and ran one in himself. He completed 23 of 30 passes and didn’t throw an interception. But Atlanta’s defense struggled in the second half, even losing the lead for a brief amount of time. The Falcons allowed New Orleans, without their starting quarterback, to put up 22 fourth quarter points.
The Dallas Cowboys (6-2, 7-1 ATS) fell behind 30-0 and lost 30-16 in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicates. Dak Prescott was terrible in his return from a calf injury, completing 19 of 39 passes for 232 yards, two late touchdowns and an interception.
The Cowboys put up 290 yards of total offense and allowed 407, possessing the ball for just 18 minutes and 48 seconds. They were dominated, losing their first game since Week 1. Dallas was missing their left tackle, Tyron Smith, and the offense struggled mightily as a result.
Dallas’ defense struggled to contain the Broncos’ rushing attack. Entering the game with the sixth-best run defense, allowing just 88.3 rushing yards per game, the Cowboys allowed Denver to run up a season-high 192 yards on the ground. The previous high was the 120 allowed to New England.
The Falcons have been good away from Atlanta this season. They’re technically 3-1 on the road this season, but their lone “home” win came in London. Although they’ve won most of their road games, the defense still surrenders the sixth-most points per game on the road (28.7), and they’re a Cowboys offense that ranks second in the league in scoring at home (34.2).
The Falcons are 4-1 in their last five games against Dallas, and 4-2 against the spread overall in their last six. The Over has hit in four of Atlanta’s last five games.
The Cowboys saw their seven-game winning streak against the spread snapped last week. The total has gone Over in six of Dallas’ last seven home games. The total has gone Over in seven of Dallas’ last eight games when playing at home against the Falcons.
Picks and Predictions
Dallas 31, Atlanta 21
ML: DAL -400 (Caesars); Spread: DAL -9/-110 (DraftKings); O/U: Under 54.5/+100 (Caesars)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts Picks and Predictions
The Jacksonville Jaguars play the Indianapolis Colts in this contest of AFC South division rivals. The Jaguars surprised the NFL world last week with a stunning upset of the Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, the Colts handled their business on Thursday Night football, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6, 3-5 ATS) scored perhaps the biggest upset of Week 9 with their 9-6 win over the heavily favored Buffalo Bills. The Jaguars didn’t play great football, especially on the offensive end, but they made enough plays to secure their biggest win in recent years.
The offense suffered through big drops, including one in the end zone, and kicker Matt Wright missed three field goals, although two were voided by penalties. That said, the defense dominated and Jacksonville took home the win.
Jacksonville’s Josh Allen harried the Bills’ Josh Allen all day. He had a sack, an interception and a fumble recovery to go along with eight tackles against the Bills and led a defense that held the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense (31.7 points per game entering the weekend) to two field goals.
The Indianapolis Colts (4-5, 6-3 ATS) took home another win against a sub-.500 team, this time besting the New York Jets 45-30. Jonathan Taylor continued to prove his worth with another impressive outing. Taylor rushed for 172 yards and two touchdowns on his 19 carries against the Jets. He stands among the top-3 running backs in the league this year.
Indy’s defense performance last Thursday is worrisome, though. The Colts allowed 30 points and 486 total yards to New York, including 317 passing yards to Josh Johnson, a third-string, 35-year-old journeyman quarterback. Although they’re facing rookie Trevor Lawrence this week, Indy has games ahead against Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Derek Carr and Kyler Murray in the coming weeks.
The Colts sport one of the league’s top rushing attacks. They rank fifth, gaining 147.8 rushing yards per game. But Jacksonville ranks top-10 defending the run on the road. After losing 20 in a row, the Jaguars have won two of their last three games.
Jacksonville’s lone win last season came in Week 1 against the Colts, 27-20. When the teams played again at the end of the season in Indy, the Colts took home the straight up win, but the Jags covered the 15.5-point spread. Jacksonville’s 10-1-1 against the spread in its last 12 games against the Colts.
The total has gone Under in six of Jacksonville’s last seven games, while the Over has hit in five of the Colts last six games. The Over is 4-2 in the last six games between these two clubs. The Colts are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games.
Picks and Predictions
Indianapolis 28, Jacksonville 20
ML: IND -476 (FanDuel); Spread: JAX +10/-105 (DraftKings); O/U: Over 47.5/-106 (FanDuel)
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots Picks and Predictions
The Cleveland Browns (5-4, 5-4 ATS) spanked their in-state rival, the Cincinnati Bengals, in their 41-16 Week 9 victory. The post-Odell Beckham Jr era started with an explosion on offense, as the Browns registered three touchdowns of 60 yards or more. Baker Mayfield played arguably his best game of the season, and Nick Chubb finally regained his elite form after his recent injury.
Mayfield threw two touchdown passes, and Chubb ran for 137 yards for the Browns. Cleveland was sparked by cornerback Denzel Ward’s early 99-yard pick-six of Joe Burrow and didn’t look back from there. The Browns defense intercepted Burrow twice, and sacked him five times.
The New England Patriots (5-4, 5-4 ATS) won another road game, this time dominating the Carolina Panthers 24-6. New England bottled up a returning Christian McCaffery and continued to dominate Sam Darnold. The Patriots are now 4-0 against Darnold, holding him to one touchdown and forcing nine interceptions in those games.
The Patriots rode the defense in this one, especially since rookie quarterback Mac Jones turned the ball over twice early on. Jones completed 12 of 18 passes for just 139 yards, one touchdown and one interception. New England’s defense allowed the Panthers to gain just 65 yards in the first half.
New England’s 4-0 on the road, which is impressive, but four of their five wins this season have come against sub-.500 teams. Each of the Patriots next six games, including this one against Cleveland, comes against teams .500 or better.
The Browns sport the league’s top road rushing attack, averaging 180 yards per game on the ground. Although the Patriots have a solid average, those numbers are skewed by games against Houston, the Jets, and Carolina, where the Pats went up big and their opponents needed to abandon the run. New England’s allowed over 120 rushing yards five times this season, including in each of their last three losses at home. Cleveland’s gained over 150 rushing yards in seven of their nine games this season.
The Patriots have owned this matchup in recent years, posting a 7-1 record straight up and 6-2 record against the spread versus Cleveland. But those games came with Tom Brady at quarterback. The Browns are 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games.
Cleveland’s seen the Over hit in three of their last five games, while the Pats have seen the Over in four of their last five.
The Buffalo Bills play the New York Jets in this matchup of AFC East rivals at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Bills inexplicably lost on the road to the Jacksonville Jaguars, putting up a season-low six points in the process. Even with that result, Buffalo still holds the best Futures Odds for the AFC Title. The Jets, meanwhile, had another tough week, not only losing the game but also potentially losing another quarterback.
The Buffalo Bills (5-3, 5-3 ATS) played their worst game in recent memory, falling to the 1-6 Jacksonville Jaguars 9-6. Buffalo’s offense seemed stuck in the mud, and played sloppily throughout. Josh Allen completed 31 of 47 passes for 264 yards, with two interceptions and a fumble. He fumbled again late, but officials ruled his progress was stopped. The Bills tallied 301 total yards on offense, a season-low for them.
Buffalo also committed 12 penalties for 118 yards. After scoring at least 30 in all but one game prior to the bye, the Bills have averaged 16 points over their last two games. Those games have come against two of the worst teams in the league.
The New York Jets (2-6, 2-6 ATS) lost a tough one last Thursday Night, falling to the Indianapolis Colts 45-30 to open Week 9. The Jets started that game without rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, then saw his replacement, Mike White, go out with a forearm injury. Third-string quarterback Josh Johnson played admirably in their stead, throwing for 317 yards and helped the Jets put up 30 points.
The problem, though, is the defense. New York’s allowing 31.4 points per game and 408 yards per game, which are each franchise worsts. Meanwhile, the Bills defense has allowed a league-low 118 points this season.
Regardless of who’s at quarterback for the Jets, Buffalo’s defense should be able to control this contest. The Bills own the league’s second-best road scoring defense, allowing just 15.7 points per game away from home. They rank third in road passing defense, surrendering 193 passing yards per game.
In the five games prior to the Bye Week, Buffalo’s offense averaged a staggering 37.4 points per game. The Jets defense has been a little better at home, but they still allow 26.6 points per contest.
Buffalo is 10-5 straight up in their last 15 games against the Jets, including a 5-2 mark in New York. The Bills have seen the Over hit in nine of their last 13 road games. The Jets, meanwhile, have seen the Over hit in each of their last five games. New York’s 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games.
The Bills are 1-1-1 against the spread as double-digit favorites this season. Buffalo holds just a half game lead over the Patriots in the AFC East entering Week 10, so this is something of a must-win for the Bills.
The Detroit Lions play the Pittsburgh Steelers in this non-conference contest at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Lions come to this one after their Bye Week, and following maybe their most disappointing effort of the season. The Steelers, meanwhile, played on Monday Night and survived against the Chicago Bears
The Detroit Lions (0-8, 4-4 ATS) looked lost in their Week 8 contest against the Philadelphia Eagles. In a game may people felt was Detroit’s best chance at a win in some time, the Lions fell flat, losing 44-6 to a sub-.500 Philadelphia squad.
Detroit comes out of the Bye the NFL’s lone winless team. In Week 8, the Lions allowed Philadelphia to run up 236 rushing yards, despite the Eagles playing without their starting running back. Detroit, meanwhile, did little with their ground game, gaining just 57 yards on 18 carries.
The Lions D allows the second-most points per game this season (30.5) and the eighth-most yards per game (378.9). They score the fourth-fewest points per game (16.8).
The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, 3-5 ATS) held a 10-point fourth quarter lead, and despite falling behind by one late in the game, the team managed to steal a win on Monday Night. The Steelers topped Chicago 29-27 thanks to a 40-yard field goal from Chris Boswell in the final minute. It was Pittsburgh’s four win in a row after a 1-3 start to the season.
Ben Roethlisberger completed 21 of 30 passes for 205 yards and the two touchdowns, both going to rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth. Rookie running back Najee Harris found the end zone for the fifth straight game after gaining 62 yards on his 22 carries.
Pittsburgh’s D held the Bears in check through three quarters, limiting Chicago to just six points. But the Steelers surrendered 21 points in the fourth, and lost the lead for a time. But they’re facing another underwhelming offense in Week 10, and one without a dynamic quarterback like Justin Fields.
The Steelers are within striking distance of the AFC North lead and can’t afford a loss to the winless Lions. Although they’re 1-5 against the spread in their last six home games, the Steelers have won the last nine meetings between these two clubs in Pittsburgh.
Before last week’s Over, the Lions had seen the Under hit in five straight contests. The Over has hit in four of the last five between these two clubs.
Picks and Predictions
Pittsburgh 24, Detroit 16
ML: PIT -400 (FanDuel); Spread: DET +9.5/-110 (BetMGM); O/U: Under 43/-105 (PointsBet)
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans Picks and Predictions
The New Orleans Saints play the Tennessee Titans in this non-conference matchup of playoff hopefuls. The Saints fell behind early against the Atlanta Falcons before storming back to take a late lead, but the defense couldn’t hold it in the Week 9 loss. The Titans, meanwhile, shrugged off the loss of Derrick Henry to shock the Los Angeles Rams on the road last Sunday night.
The New Orleans Saints (5-3, 4-4 ATS) fought back from a 24-6 deficit, but ultimately came up short against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 9, losing 27-25. The offense looked lost for much of the game, playing without Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas. Although new starting quarterback Trevor Siemian looked good in the comeback, and Taysom Hill provided a spark late, the offense still looked flat for most of the game.
Quarterback wasn’t really the problem for the Saints in Week 9, considering the amount of dropped passes and drive-killing penalties. Although Siemian lost a fourth quarter fumble, it looks like that happened because of a protection breakdown along the offensive line.
And with the defense not playing up to its normally excellent level, the lack of offensive execution resulted in New Orleans squandering an opportunity to solidify their playoff position.
The Tennessee Titans (7-2, 7-2 ATS) went to Los Angeles without Derrick Henry and came away winners thanks to their defense. The Titans D took control of the game in the second quarter thanks to pressure on Matthew Stafford which resulted in LA’s QB throwing two interceptions in a row.
Those two turnovers led to 14 points for Tennessee. The Titans have forced 11 turnovers over their last six games, and have nabbed an interception in each of those contests. The pass rush continued to dominate, sacking Stafford five times in this one. That’s now 13 sacks over their last six games.
Without Henry, though, the offense largely sputtered throughout the night. Tennessee gained just 70 yards on the ground, with the newly signed Adrian Peterson getting 21 of those on 10 carries. Peterson and Ryan Tannehill did both rush for a score in this one, which helped the offense convert all three red zone opportunities.
The Titans have won five games in a row both straight up and against the spread. But they’re facing a Saints squad that’s 6-1 both straight up and against the spread since 2019 as a road underdog. If you include this year’s Week 1 win against Green Bay, which was played in Jacksonville, they’re 7-1.
Tennessee has won five of the last seven games between these two clubs. The Saints have seen the Over hit in four of their last five, while Tennessee’s seen the Under in four of their last five home games. The total’s gone Over in 12 of the Titans last 18 games.
Picks and Predictions
Tennessee 26, New Orleans 21
ML: TEN -149 (BetMGM); Spread: TEN -3/+100 (FoxBet); O/U: Over 45/-105 (BetMGM)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team Picks and Predictions
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2, 3-5 ATS) fell on the road in Week 8 to the New Orleans Saints 36-27. Tom Brady threw a game-sealing pick-six in the loss, a game the Bucs dropped despite facing New Orleans’ backup quarterback Trevor Siemian for most of the contest.
Brady passed for four touchdowns, but also turned the ball over three times on a pair of interceptions and a fumble, which the Saints converted into 16 points. The Bucs did erase a 16-point second-half deficit before the defense surrendered the go-ahead score and Brady couldn’t complete the comeback.
The Washington Football Team (2-6, 1-7 ATS) dropped their Week 8 contest in Denver, 17-10, in a back-and-forth contest. The Broncos forced two Washington turnovers and blocked two field goals in the game. Despite that, Taylor Heinicke had an opportunity to tie the game in the closing moments, but couldn’t convert.
Washington has struggled to find any semblance of consistency this season. Injuries and ineffectiveness make this season’s 2-6 record far more daunting than last season’s 2-7 start. In 2020, Washington won five of their final seven games to grab the NFC East crown, but that’s far harder to envision this season.
Heinicke has done a decent job moving the Washington offense—until they get inside the 20-yard line. Washington’s scored on less than 46 percent of its red-zone trips with Heinicke at quarterback this season, the worst percentage in the league.
This game stands a rematch of last season’s Wild Card round postseason matchup. The 31-23 victory for Tampa Bay proved to be the most competitive of the Bucs’ postseason games in their run to the Super Bowl. Brady outduel Heinicke in what was his breakout performance, one where he threw for 306 yards and a score, while also running for 46 yards and a score.
It’s unlikely Washington stays that competitive with the Bucs this time, especially considering the state of their defense. But Washington does rank top-10 in pressuring the quarterback and knockdowns per pass attempts, which a positive metrics when facing Brady.
The Carolina Panthers play the Arizona Cardinals in this contest of NFC conference rivals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The Panthers enter this one with serious questions at quarterback following a disappointing effort against the New England Patriots. Arizona, meanwhile, posted a statement win without some of their top stars in Week 9. The Cardinals have climbed up the ranks for Futures Odds this season.
The Carolina Panthers (4-5, 4-5 ATS) absorbed their fifth loss in the last six games in the 24-6 defeat at home to the New England Patriots. Although Christian McCaffery returned in a limited role on Sunday, the offense still looked largely broken with Sam Darnold at the helm. Darnold threw three interceptions, including an 88-yard pick-six. Those three INTs make 10 in his last six games.
The Panthers went with Darnold in this one despite his lingering injury issues from the previous week. That speaks to the confidence, or lack thereof, in backup quarterback P.J. Walker.
The Arizona Cardinals (8-1, 7-2 ATS) proved they could win without Kyler Murray on Sunday, dominating the San Francisco 49ers 31-17. And it wasn’t just Murray who was out. Arizona played without DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green as well, then lost running back Chase Edmonds during their first offensive drive. The offense put up 30 points for the seventh time this season, despite missing major weapons.
Colt McCoy played an efficient game, completing 22 of 26 passes for 249 yards and one touchdown. James Conner ran for 96 yards on 21 carries and caught five passes for 77 yards. Conner scored three touchdowns on the afternoon. The defense delivered three takeaways and five sacks, including three from Markus Golden.
The assumption right now is that Kyler Murray will return for this game against Carolina. But even if it’s McCoy under center once again, the Cardinals proved they can handle lesser opponents without their full complement of stars. The Panthers have two road wins this season, but they’ve come against Houston and Atlanta, neither of which are winning teams.
The Panthers have owned this matchup of late, winning each of the last five both straight up and against the spread. But Carolina’s 1-5 against the spread in their last six games in this season. They’ve seen the Under hit in 10 of their last 12 games, including the last three in a row.
The total has gone Over in four of Arizona’s last five games against the Panthers, but it has gone Under in four the Cardinals last five at home overall.
Picks and Predictions
Arizona 27, Carolina 17
ML: AZ -400 (DraftKings); Spread: AZ -9.5/-114 (UniBet); O/U: Under 44.5/-110 (BetMGM)
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers Picks and Predictions
The Minnesota Vikings play the Los Angeles Chargers in this non-conference matchup of playoff hopefuls at SoFi Stadium in Southern California. The Vikings squandered a double-digit lead in the second half and took yet another overtime loss, while the Chargers seemed to right the ship with an important win on the road.
The Minnesota Vikings (3-5, 4-4 ATS) had control of the Week 9 contest in Baltimore before the offense slowed. The Vikings held a 14-point third quarter lead, but couldn’t make the plays down the stretch despite a key defense takeaway. Minnesota’s now lost five games this season, but none of those defeats have come by more than seven points.
Kirk Cousins completed 17 of 28 passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns, and Dalvin Cook ran for 110 yards on 17 carries, but that still wasn’t enough for Minnesota. The Vikings offense managed just 114 total yards after halftime, and the defense was gassed considering Baltimore held a 23-minute advantage in time of possession.
The Los Angeles Chargers (5-3, 5-3 ATS) bounced back from a pair of disappointing losses to grab a 27-24 win on the road in Philadelphia. Justin Herbert regained his early season form as well, completing 32 of 38 passes for 356 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran in a score.
In losses in the previous two games, Herbert was 40 for 74 for 418 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Chargers defense continued to struggle against the run. The Eagles put up 176 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground, and that’s against a Philly team missing their top running back. They’ll have their hands full this week with Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook.
The Vikings rank fourth in the league in rushing on the road, averaging 143.2 yards per game on the ground. The Chargers, meanwhile, ranked 31st defending the road as a home team, allowing 154.2 rushing yards per game. But Minnesota’s road defense is one of the league’s worst, ranking 31st in scoring D (30.7) and rushing D (154.2).
Minnesota comes to this one with a 4-11 record against the spread over its last 15 games. That said, the Vikings are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against the Chargers. The Over has hit in each of Minnesota’s last six road games.
The Chargers sport a 9-3 record against the spread in their last 12 games, and a 5-1 mark against the spread in their last six games against NFC opponents. LA’s seen the Over hit in three of their last four games.
The Chargers can’t afford a loss to a losing team considering the state of the AFC West standings.
Picks and Predictions
Los Angeles Chargers 28, Minnesota 27
ML: LAC -139 (BetMGM); Spread: MIN +2.5/+100 (FanDuel); O/U: Over 52.5/-105 (BetMGM)
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos Picks and Predictions
The Philadelphia Eagles play the Denver Broncos in this non-conference matchup at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado. The Eagles defense struggled to contain another quarterback and it resulted in yet another home loss this season. The Broncos, meanwhile, surprised the league with their upset victory in Dallas.
The Philadelphia Eagles (3-6, 4-5 ATS) ran up 176 rushing yards and two scores against the Chargers last Sunday, but couldn’t contain LA’s Justin Herbert in the 27-24 loss. Herbert became the fifth quarterback this season to complete more than 80 percent of his passes against the Eagles.
Even though the Eagles dominated on the ground for the second straight week, the defense couldn’t come up with the big stop. What’s worrisome about these recent performances, though, is that they came against two of the league’s worst rushing defenses. That’s not the case this week in Denver.
The Denver Broncos (5-4, 5-4 ATS) scored one of the most surprising victories of the season with their 30-16 domination of the Cowboys in Dallas. The Broncos held a 30-0 lead before Dallas rallied to narrow the margin in the fourth quarter, but the game was not as close as the final score indicated.
Denver might have issues moving forward though, considering the state of their offensive line. Guard Graham Glasgow suffered what looked to be a major leg injury on Sunday, and the team was already without its left tackle Garett Bolles. In addition, the Broncos lost tight end Albert Okwuegbunam to injury as well.
The Eagles come to this contest 3-2 both straight up and against the spread as the road team this season. Philly’s seen the Over hit in five of their last seven games. They’re 2-4 straight up in their last six in Denver.
The Broncos sport a 4-1 mark against the spread over their last five versus Philadelphia, but Denver’s struggled at home of late, posting a 2-5 mark straight up. The Over has hit in each of the last seven games between these two clubs, while the Under has hit in seven of Denver’s last nine overall.
The Seattle Seahawks play the Green Bay Packers in an NFC matchup of perennial playoff powerhouses. The Seahawks come to this one after enjoying a Bye Week following a dominant 31-7 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 8. The Packers, meanwhile, saw their seven-game win streak snapped with a frustrating loss in Kansas City.
The Seattle Seahawks (3-5, 5-3 ATS) rallied around backup quarterback Geno Smith to end their three-game losing streak and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Seattle took control of the game early behind efficient play from Smith, and only surrendered a meaningless late touchdown in that one.
Russell Wilson received medical clearance to return to action Week 10, which buoys the Seahawks postseason hopes. Wilson hasn’t played since Week 5 due to a ruptured tendon in his right finger, for which he was forced to undergo surgery. He started the season as one of the top quarterbacks in the league, before cooling off ahead of the injury. Still, Wilson’s return should be a boon for this offense.
The Green Bay Packers (7-2, 8-1 ATS) lost for just the second time this season, and the first time since Week 1, last Sunday. The Chiefs topped Green Bay 13-7 in what was Jordan Love’s first career start. Aaron Rodgers missed the game after testing positive for COVID-19 earlier in the week. According to league rules, the earliest Rodgers can return in the Saturday before the game versus the Seahawks.
Love struggled to consistently move the offense in his first career start. He completed 19 of 34 passes 190 yards, a touchdown and an interception, both of which came in the fourth quarter. The Packers managed just 301 yards of offense.
Strangely, Aaron Jones wasn’t a bigger part of the game plan for Green Bay considering they were starting a second-year quarterback. Jones touched the ball just 12 times, all rushing attempts, gaining 53 yards on the day.
Since Rodgers became the starter in 2008, the Packers are 6-11-1 without him as the starter at quarterback, averaging 20.7 points per game. With Rodgers, they’re 133-64-1 in the regular season, averaging 27.1 points per game.
If Rodgers is out there on Sunday, the Packers should handle Seattle, with or without Russell Wilson. If he’s not, the Seahawks are primed for the upset. There’s a big difference in Rodgers versus Wilson and Love versus Smith.
The Seahawks enter this one on a three-game winning streak against the spread, while Green Bay’s 5-0 against the spread in its last five as a favorite. The Over has hit in three of the last four between these two teams.
The Kansas City Chiefs (5-4, 2-7 ATS) struggled to move the ball consistently against the Packers, but still managed to grab the 13-7 victory in Week 9. Patrick Mahomes completed 20 of 37 passes but threw for just 166 yards, the fewest in a full game for his career. He did connect with Travis Kelce for a touchdown, but the Chiefs put up just 237 total yards on offense.
Kansas City went scoreless in the second half, but the defense came away with a key interception in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs were helped by a missed field goal, and blocked a field goal as well. Kansas City’s finally over the .500 mark once again, and are within striking distance of the AFC West division lead.
The Las Vegas Raiders (5-3, 4-4 ATS) looked like the roller coaster of emotions finally caught up to them last week. The Raiders went to New York and laid an egg, losing to the Giants 23-16. The team took a tough blow earlier in the week when wide receiver Henry Ruggs was cut after a tragic DUI accident. Though much more emotional, this comes a few weeks after the team’s head coach resigned amid an email scandal.
Derek Carr, in particular, struggled in this one. He completed 30 of 46 passes for 296 yards and a touchdown, but also threw two interceptions, including a pick-six, and lost a fumble at New York’s 20-yard line in the final minute of the game.
The Raiders hope to reverse a recent trend of falling apart down the stretch. In 2019, a 6-4 start ended with a 7-9 finish. Last year, Las Vegas started 6-3 and finished 8-8.
Vegas sports one of the league’s worst run defenses at home, allowing 150 rushing yards per game (30th). But they’re facing a Chiefs squad that ranks bottom-10 in rushing attempts per game. The Raiders pass defense, meanwhile, ranks top-5, allowing just 186.5 passing yards per game.
The Chiefs have owned this matchup of late, winning eight of the last 10 between these two clubs. KC’s 6-4 against the spread over that span, and is averaging 31.3 points per game.
Kansas City is 2-7 against the spread this season, but both of those covers have come on the road. The total has gone Under in four of the Chiefs’ last five games.
Las Vegas is 2-4 against the spread in its last six games, with the total going Over in nine of its last 13.
The Los Angeles Rams play the San Francisco 49ers to wrap up the NFL Week 10 slate of games from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Both teams come to his one after disappointing losses in Week 9. The Rams squandered an opportunity against a Tennessee team missing its top offensive performer, while the 49ers did the same, only against an Arizona squad missing their top three players.
The Los Angeles Rams (7-2, 4-5 ATS) couldn’t handle the pressure from the Tennessee Titans during their 28-16 loss last Sunday night. The Titans sacked quarterback Matthew Stafford four times in the first half alone, and pressured him throughout. It was on a pair of those pressures in the second quarter that Stafford threw two interceptions.
The back-to-back interceptions proved to be more than the Rams could overcome, despite playing better in the second half. LA’s defense played well enough, limiting the Derrick Henry-less Titans to just 70 rushing yards and 194 total yards overall.
The San Francisco 49ers (3-5, 2-6 ATS) wasted a golden opportunity to rejoin the NFC playoff race in Week 9. The Cardinals entered the contest without Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, and J.J. Watt, but still, the Niners allowed 31 points and mustered just 17 in response.
San Francisco has now lost eight straight home games dating back to last season. The defense allowed Cardinals running back James Conner to gain 173 yards from scrimmage and score three touchdowns in this one.
Although Jimmy Garoppolo played well, completing 28 of 40 passes for 326 yards and two touchdowns, the Niners couldn’t muster much of a ground game. San Francisco gained just 39 yards on 11 carries. Garoppolo threw an interception late which ended any comeback attempt.
Even though the Niners have won the last four in a row in this matchup, it’s hard to see them grabbing a win in this one. The Rams have won four of their last five games, although they’re 2-3 against the spread over that span.
San Francisco holds a 8-3 record against the spread in the last 11 games between these two clubs, but the Niners have lost eight in a row at home. The Rams, meanwhile, are 5-1 straight up over their last six road games.
The Under has hit in six of the last eight games played in San Francisco in this matchup. The Niners have seen the Over hit in six of their last nine games overall.
If the Rams are going to make a run at the NFC West division crown, and potentially a first round Bye in the playoffs, they’ll need to win this game.
Picks and Predictions
Los Angeles Rams 30, San Francisco 21
ML: LAR -189 (BetMGM); Spread: LAR -4.5/-110 (FanDuel); O/U: Over 49.5/-105 (BetMGM)
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