NFL Draft Odds: Will Stroud or Young Go No. 1? And What About Richardson?

We’re within three weeks of the NFL Draft (opening round is April 27 from Kansas City), so it’s a good time to take a fresh look at the NFL Draft odds. This is especially a good time since we know that the Carolina Panthers will be making the first selection, and they will certainly be selecting a quarterback.

The Chicago Bears landed the top pick but appear content in moving forward with Justin Fields at QB. In a QB-heavy draft, that gave the Bears quite a bargaining chip for whichever team wanted to guarantee they got the quarterback they wanted at No. 1.

Carolina ended up paying the price to move up to the top pick. The Panthers traded the Nos. 9 and 61 picks this year, a 2024 first-rounder, a 2025 second-rounder, and wide receiver D.J. Moore to Chicago in exchange for this year’s No. 1 selection.

There isn’t a slam-dunk No. 1 pick this year like we had in Joe Burrow in 2020 and Trevor Lawrence in 2021. But there are options in Ohio State’s C. J. Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Young, and Kentucky’s Will Levis. Florida’s Anthony Richardson also impressed teams at the combine, and it’s reasonable to expect that a team in the top five will take a shot on him.

Here are the NFL Draft odds for the first pick, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

NFL Draft experts are in agreement that the Panthers like both Stroud and Young, and the odds definitely reflect that. Head coach Frank Reich said at last week’s NFL owners’ meetings in Phoenix that the evaluation process is ongoing. However, who has the edge currently?

At this time of year, it’s hard to know what to believe. If anything will hold Young–who won a Heisman Trophy and national title at Alabama– back, it will be his size. He’s 5’10, whereas Stroud is 6’3. Our last glimpse of Stroud was also his best work, carving up an all-world Georgia defense in last year’s national semifinal game.

We would give a narrow edge to Stroud, but with both being at -110, it’s unlikely that either will break out ahead of the other prior to the draft.

Richardson’s year as the starting quarterback for the Florida Gators was the definition of feast or famine. He started by beating eventual Pac-12 champion Utah in the opener by running for over 100 yards and three touchdowns. He followed that up with no touchdowns and four interceptions in a loss to Kentucky and a narrow win against AAC foe South Florida.

He did improve toward the end of the season, throwing 10 TDs against just two interceptions in the Gators’ final four games. Then at the NFL Combine, he dazzled scouts with his impressive numbers at the quarterback position.

There are two bets we like on Richardson. If you follow the NFL, you know that it only takes one person to fall in love with a player, and they will do whatever it takes to get that person before someone else does.

With that in mind, we love the bet available at DraftKings that sets an over-under on when Richardson will be selected. The over-under on Richardson’s draft position is set at 4.5.

We would certainly take the under on that bet. Here is the reasoning:

With that said, FanDuel has a wager on which team will draft Richardson.

Interestingly, Tennessee has the same odds as the Colts. The Titans currently pick 11th. It’s unlikely Richardson will be available at that point with the Colts and even Seattle ahead of them. The Seahawks re-signed Geno Smith but could grab Richardson and develop him for a year or two. Same goes for Las Vegas, who picks seventh and will be going into 2023 with Jimmy Garoppolo. Baltimore picks 22nd but is listed here because Lamar Jackson’s situation is unsettled. While Jackson was given the franchise tag for this year, he has expressed his desire to be traded. Jumping 19 spots, however, will be costly for the Ravens, and they may choose to test their luck with Jackson this season.

Of these teams, we would go with the Colts. No team has been burned more at the QB position in recent years than Indy–or maybe Denver, but they’re all-in on Russell Wilson. After losing Luck, Indy made it to the playoffs with Philip Rivers before he retired. In 2021, Carson Wentz collapsed at the end of the season, and Matt Ryan was an abject disaster in 2022.