Historically, the Wild Card Round is where bettors cashed in on Underdogs. Prior to last weekend, Underdogs posted a 11-3 record against the spread over the last three years. That record flips significantly for the next round, as Favorites hold an 8-4 record in the Divisional Round over that span. This year, all four home teams are favored, but three of those spreads are 3.5 points or less.
NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend sported intriguing matchups, but most of the games were one-sided. Four of the five home teams that won scored at least 31 points. Winners in the Wild Card Round averaged 33.8 points per game, with losers putting up only 16.6. Despite high point outputs by the winners, the Under still won the weekend 4-2. That’s consistent with the season-long trend.
Totals, for the most part, remain lower, with the Under hitting in seven of 12 Divisional games over the last three years. That said, six of the top 10 scoring offenses remain in the field, including three of the top-4 scoring teams this season. These teams sport solid defenses, though, with five of the remaining units ranking in the top-10 for points allowed per game.
Now that the Wild Cards are done, it’s time to shift our betting focus to the league’s quarterfinals. Here’s a look at every NFL Divisional Round game, with best game odds, picks and predictions for each contest.
When: Saturday, January 22nd, 4:30 PM
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
| Moneyline | Spread | Totals | |
| Bengals Best Odds | +160 (FoxBet) | +3.5/-110 (BetMGM) | Under 47/-105 (FoxBet) |
| Titans Best Odds | -169 (Caesars) | -3.5/+100 (FoxBet) | Over 46.5/-110 (BetMGM) |
The Cincinnati Bengals play the Tennessee Titans in the opening contest of the NFL’s Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Bengals won their first postseason game since 1991 during Super Wild Card Weekend while Tennessee enjoyed their first-round Bye. This game stands as the only matchup of the Divisional Round that isn’t a rematch from the regular season.
The Cincinnati Bengals (11-7, 11-7 ATS) secured their first playoff victory in over 30 years with their 26-19 win over the Las Vegas Raiders last weekend. The Bengals scored on each of their four drives in the first half, including a late second-quarter touchdown that came thanks to some questionable officiating. Cincinnati got solid efforts from Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase in their playoff debuts, with Burrow going 24 of 34 for 244 yards and two scores, while Chase caught nine of those passes for 116 yards.
The Bengals defense turned it up a notch against Las Vegas. They limited the Raiders to just one touchdown on five red zone trips and forced a pair of turnovers. Cincinnati sacked Derek Carr three times and held the Raiders to 9-of-20 on third and fourth down combined. But the Bengals didn’t get out of that game unscathed, as they lost two of their top defensive linemen to injury. Larry Ogunjobi sustained a season-ending foot injury while edge rusher Trey Hendrickson suffered a concussion.
The Tennessee Titans (12-5, 10-7 ATS) enjoyed the week off thanks to their AFC-best 12-5 record in the regular season. Despite that, the Titans entered the postseason with the third-longest odds to win the AFC. Tennessee’s offense wasn’t elite in any category, especially after losing Derrick Henry, except for red zone offense, where they scored touchdowns at a 63.9 percent clip, fifth-best in the league. That said, Henry’s expected back for this game.
The Titans defense, meanwhile, ranked top-10 in several important categories. Tennessee’s defense allowed 20.8 points per game (5th) and 0.34 points per play (9th). The Titans run defense allowed just 84.6 rushing yards per game (2nd) and 3.9 yards per rush (4th). Tennessee registered 41 sacks (10th), and sported the 6th-best third down defense (36.7 percent) and 7th-best red zone defense (51.7 percent).
The Bengals need to protect Burrow in this one. In games when Cincinnati allowed less than three sacks, they were 5-0. They also must avoid turnovers, since the Titans were 9-2 this season when getting at least one takeaway. The Bengals, though, committed the 12th-fewest turnovers this season (21).
This game could come down to explosive (20-plus yards) plays. If the Bengals give Burrow time to throw, this Titans secondary can be picked apart. Tennessee allowed 60 explosive pass plays this season, the sixth-most in the league. Cincinnati hit the fifth-most explosive pass plays (66), and second-most pass plays of 25-yards or more (42). The Bengals scored 21 “explosive” touchdowns, which led the league.
The Titans finished the regular season ranked fifth in rushing yards per game (141.5), despite not having Henry in the lineup after Halloween. The Bengals were fifth in the NFL this season against the run, allowing just 102.5 yards per game, but that figure might be misleading. Cincinnati saw the fifth-fewest rushing attempts by opponents this season (407). The Bengals defense allowed 4.3 yards per carry, which ranked 13th in the NFL.
Cincinnati holds a 5-2 record straight up and 6-1 mark against the spread versus the Titans since the start of the 2005 season. That includes 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS marks in Tennessee. Burrow has faced the Titans once in his career, a 31-20 win as a 7-point underdog at home in Week 8 last season. He completed over 70 percent of his passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns.
Tennessee has won seven of its last eight at Nissan Stadium and gone UNDER the total in eight of its last 10 in Nashville. Tennessee’s last home playoff win came way back in 2003, but the Bengals are 0-7 all-time as a road team in the postseason.
The Bengals posted a 4-0 mark against the spread as a road underdog of more than two points this season. Cincinnati was 3-1 straight up in that situation, with the lone loss coming in Week 18 this year at the Browns when they say Burrow and other key players.
Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans sport a 3-7-1 against the spread as home favorites of more than four points. When playing as at least 3.5-point favorites this season, Tennessee’s 3-3 against the spread. Five of those six games hit the Under. The Titans have seen an average of fewer than 30 total points scored in their last four games. Tennessee and their opponents hit Over 47 points eight times this season, while the Bengals and their opponents did that 10 times.
Tennessee 24, Cincinnati 20
ML: TEN -169 (Caesars); Spread: TEN -3.5/+100 (FoxBet); O/U: Under 47/-105 (FoxBet)
When: Saturday, January 22nd, 8:15 PM
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
| Moneyline | Spread | Totals | |
| 49ers Best Odds | +215 (Sugar House) | +5/+100 (FoxBet) | Under 47.5/-108 (FanDuel) |
| Packers Best Odds | -238 (Caesars) | -6/-109 (Sugar House) | Over 47.5/-110 (BetMGM) |
The San Francisco 49ers play the Green Bay Packers in the primetime game for the NFL’s Divisional Round on Saturday night. The Niners held on for the win in what finished as the closest Super Wild Card game. San Francisco proved to be the lone underdog and road team to cover and win last weekend. The Packers, meanwhile, enjoyed the first-round Bye. This game represents something a grudge match for Green Bay, considering the Niners have eliminated them from the playoffs three times since 2012.
The San Francisco 49ers (11-7, 10-8 ATS) held a 23-10 lead entering the fourth quarter in Dallas before a Jimmy Garoppolo interception breathed new life into the Cowboys. Their defense held, thanks to questionable officiating and offensive play-calling, to book this Divisional Round rematch in Green Bay.
Garoppolo finished 16 of 25 for 172 yards and the interception. Deebo Samuel put up 110 total yards on 13 touches and scored a rushing touchdown. Elijah Mitchell ran 27 times for 96 yards and a score. San Francisco’s defense harried Dak Prescott throughout the game, finishing with five sacks and hold the league’s top offense to 307 total yards.
But the Niners didn’t get out of Super Wild Card Weekend unscathed. Defensive end Nick Bosa suffered a concussion and left last week’s game before halftime. Meanwhile, linebacker Fred Warner injured his ankle. They are both questionable for Saturday’s contest. Garoppolo suffered a slightly sprained right shoulder versus the Cowboys, though he is expected to play.
With the win in Dallas, Garoppolo improved to 3-1 all-time in the postseason. Garoppolo’s only playoff loss as a starting quarterback came when the Niners dropped Super Bowl LIV in Miami to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Interestingly, only two teams in NFL history have defeated both the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers in the same postseason, the 2007 New York Giants and 1972 Washington Redskins. Both of those teams went on to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, with the Giants defeating the then-perfect Patriots while the Redskins lost to the undefeated Miami in Super Bowl VII.
The Green Bay Packers (13-4, 12-5 ATS) finished with the league’s best record and sport the best odds to win not only the NFC Championship but also the Super Bowl. The Packers ended as a top-10 team in almost every offensive category and finished with the fewest turnovers (13) this season. The Bye-week helped Green Bay heal, and the team expects to get left tackle David Bakhtiari back in the lineup, as well as potentially cornerback Jaire Alexander and pass-rusher Za’Darius Smith, too.
Aaron Rodgers put up another MVP-level performance this season, throwing for 4,115 passing yards (242.1 per game) and a 68.9 completion percentage (366-for-531). He connected on 37 touchdown passes and threw only four interceptions.
These teams met in Week 3 with Green Bay grabbing a 30-28 victory over the Niners in San Francisco. Rodgers navigated the Packers into field goal range inside the final minute, despite not having any timeouts. Rodgers went 23 of 33 for 261 yards and two touchdowns in that one, connecting with Devante Adams 12 times for 132 yards and one score.
Green Bay blew a 17-point lead in that game before completing the comeback. The Packers defense held San Francisco to just 67 rushing yards, their second-lowest total of the season and one of only four times this year they didn’t gain at least 100 yards on the ground. Green Bay’s defense forced two turnovers and sacked Garoppolo four times.
For the 49ers, the key to success in this game with be on the ground. When San Francisco’s topped the Packers in past playoff matchups, it’s been thanks in large part to monster rushing performances (323 yards in 2012, 167 yards in 2014, and 285 yards in 2020). Although Green Bay finished with the 10th-ranked rushing defense (109.1 yards per game), they faced the second-fewest rushing attempts (221). The Packers allowed 4.6 yards per carry (22nd). The Niners are 1-9 since last season when failing to reach at least 100 rushing yards.
No surprise here, but Rodgers holds the key to this game. The Packers were 9-2 when passing for more than 250 yards this season, which was the second-best mark in the NFL. Green Bay sported a 9-2 record when making five or more explosive passing plays in the game (more than 20 yards), the fourth-best mark in the league. The Niners defense allowed 58 explosive passing plays this season, eighth-most.
The Packers went 11-0 this season went making at least one interception. Garoppolo threw 12 interceptions this season, and threw a critical one against Dallas in the Wild Card round.
San Francisco holds the lead in this series since 2012, going 6-4 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread. The Niners have never lost to Rodgers in the playoffs (3-0). San Francisco thrives as a road underdog of late, going 7-1 both straight up and against the spread since 2019. The Over enters 10-3 in the last 13 games between these clubs, with an average of 52.3 points per game being scored in those contests. In the last five games between these two in Green Bay, the Over hit four times.
Green Bay 28, San Francisco 20
ML: GB -238 (Caesars); Spread: GB -6/-109 (Sugar House); O/U: Over 47.5/-110 (BetMGM)
When: Sunday, January 23rd, 3:00 PM
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
| Moneyline | Spread | Totals | |
| Rams Best Odds | +132 (Sugar House) | +2.5/+100 (FoxBet) | Under 48.5/-110 (BetMGM) |
| Buccaneers Best Odds | -149 (Sugar House) | -3/-104 (Sugar House) | Over 49/-105 (FoxBet) |
The Los Angeles Rams play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the early window on Sunday for a spot in the NFC Championship game. This game features a pair of high-powered offenses, with both teams coming off performances where they put up over 30 points. This Divisional Round game stands as a rematch of the Week 3 battle between these clubs earlier this season. The Ram won that game 34-24 in Los Angeles.
The Los Angeles Rams (13-5, 9-9 ATS) routed their division rivals, the Arizona Cardinals, in the 34-11 win last Monday night. Matthew Stafford passed for 202 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another score in his first playoff win. The Rams defense held Arizona to just 183 total yards and forced two turnovers, including a pick-six.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-4, 10-8 ATS) rolled over the Philadelphia Eagles on Super Wild Card Weekend, 31-15. Tom Brady completed 29 of 37 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns. Despite entering with second-fewest rushing attempts this season (385) and per game (22.6), the Bucs leaned on the running game with 31 carries gaining 106 yards and two touchdowns against Philadelphia.
The Bucs didn’t escape the Wild Card Round unscathed, though. After a season largely characterized by health along the offensive line, Tampa Bay saw right tackle Tristan Wirfs (ankle) and center Ryan Jensen (foot) go down against the Eagles. Neither expects to practice until Friday at the earliest, and if they miss the game, that could prove problematic against Aaron Donald, Von Miller and the rest of the Rams’ defensive front.
The Bucs allowed opponents to pressure their QB on just 12 percent of pass attempts this season, which was the best percentage in the NFL this season. Tampa Bay went 12-1 when allowing less than three sacks this season, which was the second-best record in the league for that metric. The Bucs surrendered the fewest sacks for the season (23), but face a Los Angeles defense that registered the third-most (49).
Brady enters this ball game with a 14-2 record in the Divisional Round. His teams have won nine straight games in this round, the longest such streak for a quarterback in NFL history. Brady hasn’t lost in the Divisional Round since 2010, and he’s 5-0 as a starter in the playoffs for Tampa Bay.
When these team met in Week 3, the Rams held a 14-7 halftime lead then exploded for 17 points in the third quarter. Stafford passed for 343 yards and four touchdowns and Brady went off for 432 yards and two touchdowns (one passing, one rushing). Tampa Bay’s running game was virtually nonexistent in that game, gaining just 35 yards. Brady was the Bucs’ leading rusher with 14 yards.
If the Rams can handle Tampa Bay’s blitz, they could be in line for an upset. The Bucs defense blitzed 317 times this season, most in the NFL. They blitzed on 29 percent of plays, also most in the league. The Rams had a third down conversion rate of 59 percent against the blitz this season, which ranked second in the NFL. The league average in that category was 39 percent.
Tampa Bay’s been dominant at Raymond James Stadium of late, posting a 11-1 straight up record and 10-2 against the spread mark in their last 12 home games (including playoffs). In their 10 ATS wins, the Bucs have outscored opponents by more than 20 points, averaging 36.7 points per game while surrendering just 16.4. Six of their last seven home wins have come by more than 15 points. The Rams were 7-2 on the road this season, with a 4-5 ATS mark away from home.
LA finished the regular season as one of nine teams to average more than 370 total yards per game. The Bucs have gone 13-4-1 against the spread since the start of 2020 when facing teams that average more than 350 yards per game. When playing as at least 3-point favorites this season, the Buccaneers have an ATS record of 10-7. The Rams covered in their lone game as a 3-point underdog this season.
Each of the last five games between these clubs has hit the Over, with the total averaging 65.4 points per game. The Over is 5-0 in Tampa Bay’s last five games against the Rams, including the Week 3 matchup earlier this season. The Rams are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine against the Bucs, and 5-0 against the spread in their last five trips to Tampa Bay.
Los Angeles Rams 24, Tampa Bay 23
ML: LAR +132 (Sugar House); Spread: LAR +2.5/+100 (FoxBet); O/U: Under 48.5/-110 (BetMGM)
When: Sunday, January 23rd, 6:30 PM
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
| Moneyline | Spread | Totals | |
| Bills Best Odds | +115 (BetMGM) | +2.5/-105 (FanDuel) | Under 54.5/-110 (BetMGM) |
| Chiefs Best Odds | -130 (Sugar House) | -2.5/-108 (FanDuel) | Over 55/-108 (Sugar House) |
The Buffalo Bills play the Kansas City Chiefs in the final game of the NFL’s Divisional Round on Sunday afternoon. This might be the marquee matchup of the NFL’s Divisional Round, considering what these teams did to their opponents during Super Wild Card Weekend. This game represents a rematch of not only last season’s AFC Championship game, but also a Week 5 matchup earlier this season. This will be the third matchup at Arrowhead Stadium in less than a year for these two teams.
The Buffalo Bills (12-6, 11-6-1 ATS) routed their division rival, the New England Patriots, 47-17 last weekend. Josh Allen set a team playoff record with five touchdown passes, including two to Dawson Knox, and Devin Singletary ran for two scores, as the Bills erased any lingering doubt over their abilities.
By halftime, Buffalo had rolled up 300 yards of total offense, 19 first downs, and a 27-3 lead. The Bills defense limited New England to 89 rushing yards, sacked Mac Jones three times and intercepted him twice. The Bills scored on all seven drives, and went 6-for-6 in the red zone against one of the league’s top defensive units.
The Kansas City Chiefs (13-5, 9-9 ATS), meanwhile, dispatched the Pittsburgh Steelers on Super Wild Card Weekend in a rout of their own. The Chiefs sent Big Ben Roethlisberger to retirement in the 42-21 win, which included a 35-point blitz over 11 minutes of game time.
Patrick Mahomes went 30 of 39 for 404 yards and five touchdowns, and Travis Kelce threw a touchdown pass well. The offense converted eight of 12 third down tries en route to 478 total yards on the day despite two turnovers. KC’s defense limited the Steelers to 257 total yards and 39 yards per play, forcing one turnover.
When these two met in Week 5, the Bills scored a measure of revenge for KC’s AFC Championship win last season. Buffalo rolled to a 38-20 win in Arrowhead thanks in large part to a monster game from Allen. The Bills QB put up four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) in the win, threw for 315 yards, and ran for another 59. Buffalo’s defense forced four turnovers and limited the Chiefs to 5-of-13 on third and fourth down.
But Kansas City’s defense is very different at this point of the season. The Chiefs finished 9-1 over their last 10 games, with the best scoring defense (16.5 points per game), allowing the fewest points overall (165), and ranking seventh in QBR against (39.5). Kansas City picked off more passes (15) than passing touchdowns allowed (12). The Chiefs generated the sixth-highest pressure rate (30.7) over that span.
Mahomes leads the league with 17 touchdown and just two interceptions over his last six games, including last week. Kansas City’s averaged 36.5 points per game over that span and have turned the ball over just four times, something that plagued them early in the season (and specifically against the Bills). Mahomes must take care of the football in this one, considering Buffalo went 9-1 this season when intercepting at least one pass.
For Buffalo, 22 is a key number. The Bills went 0-4 this season when failing to score 22 points in a game. They were also 0-4 when the defense allowed more than 22 points in a game this season.
Since the start of 2020, the Bills sport a 10-3 record against the spread in games where the line stands between plus-3 and minus-3. In that same timeframe, Buffalo’s 13-4 against the spread coming off back-to-back straight up wins.
The Chiefs enter this game 3-1 against the spread as a favorite of three points or fewer, but that lone loss came against Buffalo. KC is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven meetings between these clubs, and 6-2 against the spread in their last eight meetings in Kansas City. And they’re 5-1 against the spread in their last six home playoff games.
Kansas City has seen the Over hit in each of its last six games, with the Chiefs averaging 36.5 points per game while allowing just 21 points per game over that span. The Over went 10-3 in games where the Chiefs played AFC opponents. The Bills, meanwhile, have seen the Over hit in each of their last six road games with a total set at 49 points. Buffalo’s seen an average of 59.7 points in those six contests.
Kansas City 30, Buffalo 27
ML: KC -130 (Sugar House); Spread: KC -2.5/-108 (FanDuel); O/U: Over 55/-108 (Sugar House)
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