Heading into the NFL Week 4 slate of games, road underdogs look to replicate their success from Week 3 when they went 6-6. So far this season, road underdogs sport a 18-11 record. Overall, underdogs have had the run of the league, posting a 29-19 mark. There are 10 road underdogs in Week 4, and there’s a reasonable case to make for more than half of those teams to cover the spread. Despite all that, the Sidelines Best Bets for Week 3 column went 5-0 picking three favorites and two underdogs.
As NFL odds adjust from week to week, it’s important to consider all of the data coming in with each game. NFL Week 4 Picks and Predictions navigate through all of the Week 4 NFL lines. Favorites, surprisingly, are just 19-29 against the spread so far this season. And the Under has hit 28 times through 48 games.
Despite all this uncertainty, though, NFL Week 4 features a number of actionable lines and totals to bet this weekend. Here’s a look at five of the best bets to follow for Week 4.
| Game | Bet |
| Colts at Dolphins Best Bets | Under 43/-105 (BetMGM) |
| Chiefs at Eagles Best Bets | Kansas City -7/-110 (DraftKings) |
| Cardinals at Rams Best Bets | Over 54.5/-105 (FoxBet) |
| Seahawks at 49ers Best Bets | Seattle +3/-115 (DraftKings) |
| Ravens at Broncos Best Bets | Ravens Moneyline -102 (UniBet) |
The Indianapolis Colts play the Miami Dolphins in a pivotal Week 4 matchup between AFC playoff hopefuls. Both of these teams enter coming off disappointing losses, and both need a win to feel better about their playoff odds moving forward.
The Colts (0-3, 1-2 ATS) watched Carson Wentz gut it out with two sprained ankles last week, but Indy’s offense struggled once again. Wentz averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt and the team put up 16 points. The Colts average 18.6 points per game through three weeks, and could be without their starting center Quenton Nelson, in addition to missing T.Y. Hilton still.
Jacoby Brissett will take on his former team as the starting quarterback for the Dolphins (1-2, 2-1 ATS) in Week 4. Although Brissett led an improbable comeback in Las Vegas late during their Week 3 loss, he managed just 4.4 yards per attempt along the way. Brissett found rookie wideout Jaylen Waddle 12 times, but for just 58 yards. Miami’s dink-and-dunk offense ranks 30th in scoring, averaging just 15 points per game.
Neither of these offenses have put up a ton of points this season, and Indy’s offense seems devoid of playmakers without Hilton and with a hobbled Wentz. The Dolphins have speedsters on the outside, but an unreliable offensive line and a quarterback with spotty accuracy has kept Miami from capitalizing with those weapons. These two defenses rank 22nd and 23rd in points allowed, both giving up over 26 per game, but the Dolphins sport an opportunistic bunch that has a takeaway in 25 straight games.
Both teams enter this one with real concerns offensively, which should keep the score down.
The Kansas City Chiefs play the Philadelphia Eagles in this Week 4 matchup that surprisingly features two 1-2 teams. The Chiefs have lost two games in a row for just the third time in the Patrick Mahomes era. They’ve never lost three in a row with Mahomes as their main starting quarterback. That said, Kansas City (1-2, 0-3 ATS) sports just an 8-14 record against the spread since the start of the 2020 season, and they’re 0-3 against the spread in 2021.
Even though they’ve failed to cover, the Chiefs could be 3-0 if not for a few crippling turnovers late in these losses. And in the two previous times KC’s lost two in a row, the Chiefs won the following game by an average margin of 28 points.
Their opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles (1-2, 1-2 ATS), have played an uneven brand of football early on in 2021. After looking great offensively in Week 1, they’ve struggled to put up points consistently, averaging just 16 points between Weeks 2 and 3. And although the defense looked great through two weeks, the Eagles allowed the Dallas Cowboys to put up 41 points in Week 3. Now they face another potent offensive attack and they might not be able to keep up.
The Chiefs find themselves in the cellar of the AFC West, which is a surprise to everyone around football. And it’s hard to imagine Kansas City falling to 1-3 ahead of an AFC Championship Game rematch with the Buffalo Bills in Week 5. KC’s finally found a running game with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Mahomes should be able to clean up his early turnover issues.
Expect the Chiefs to come out firing in this one and outpacing Philly by more than one touchdown.
The Arizona Cardinals play the Los Angeles Rams in a game where the Total sits at the highest number for the NFL Week 4 slate. Although 55 is a big number, this contest pits two of the top offenses in the league against one another. Both sides feature explosive playmakers and should be able to put points on the board.
The Rams (3-0, 2-1 ATS) have seen the over hit in each of their three games so far this season, and that’s thanks in large part to Matthew Stafford. The Rams offense ranks third in scoring, averaging 31.6 points per game. The come into this one after putting up 34 against the defending Super Bowl champions. Stafford has the passing game ranked sixth, averaging 304.3 yards per game through the air.
The Cardinals (3-0, 2-1 ATS), meanwhile, might have an even more explosive offense. Arizona leads the league in scoring, averaging 34.3 points per game. And even though they had only 10 points in the third quarter in Week 3, the Cardinals finished with 31. Kyler Murray’s an early entrant in the MVP conversation and can extend plays against Los Angeles’ defensive line with his legs.
Both of these defenses are opportunistic. The Rams seem to have the better backend group, but both Arizona and LA allow more than 20 points per game. The Cardinals play to their averages, this game clears the over. If the Rams play to their averages, this game could clear the over as well.
Two of the last three matchups in this series has seen the over hit, with the total getting to at least 55 points in each. The Rams are averaging 29 points per game in those three meetings.
Both teams should be geared up for this matchup, considering the winner will hold first place in the NFC West.
The Seattle Seahawks play the San Francisco 49ers in another important divisional matchup in the NFC this week. The Seahawks (1-2, 1-2 ATS) come to this game in desperate need of a win, considering they don’t want to fall to 1-3 in what will be a hotly contests NFC West. Seattle swept this series last season, and has won 13 of the last 15 meetings between these two clubs.
In their last two losses, the Seahawks have failed miserably against the run. Derrick Henry ran wild against them in the second half of their Week 2 matchup, and last week, the Vikings put up 140 rushing yards despite not having Dalvin Cook in the game. But what works in Seattle’s favor this week is the fact that the 49ers are not built to exploit this defensive weakness.
San Francisco (2-1, 1-2 ATS) managed just 67 rushing yards in their Week 3 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Only 45 of those rushing yards came from running backs. The 49ers average 105 rushing yards per game, which ranks 16th in the league. And defensively, San Francisco is also weak against the run, allowing 122 rushing yards per contest.
The Seahawks feature a reliable running back in Chris Carson, and a mobile quarterback in Russell Wilson. San Francisco is 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 games, and 0-5 straight up in their last five home games. Sure, the 49ers are 2-1, but those victories are against a winless Detroit Lions club and a Philadelphia Eagles team trying to figure itself out. Against a reliable veteran quarterback last week, the 49ers wilted with the game on the line.
The Seahawks need this win to keep pace in the NFC playoff race, especially ahead of their Week 5 matchup with the Los Angeles Rams.
The Baltimore Ravens play the Denver Broncos in one of the AFC’s most intriguing matchups this week. This game is difficult to pick considering Baltimore’s underwhelming performance against the Detroit Lions and Denver’s soft schedule early on. The Broncos are one of only two teams undefeated both straight up and against the spread (3-0, 3-0 ATS). But their three opponents so far, the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New York Jets, are each winless in 2021.
Denver’s only faced offenses in the bottom third of the league in scoring, and while their defense has much to do with those statistics, the fact that they were playing two rookie quarterbacks factors into those numbers as well.
What’s more, the Broncos see a number of difference makers on the injured list entering their Week 4 contest. Two of the top receivers, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, as well as defensive stalwarts like Bradley Chubb, Ronald Darby, and Josey Jewell all occupy the IR. And both starting guards, Grant Glasgow and Dalton Riser, are questionable for Week 4.
Meanwhile, the Ravens (2-1, 1-2 ATS) expect to see some reinforcements after four key defensive players landed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list last week. Jaylon Ferguson, Justin Houston, Justin Madubuike, and Brandon Williams could all return for the game in Denver.
The Ravens are also 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog, including an outright win over the Chiefs in Week 2 this season. Lamar Jackson represents a dynamic threat at the quarterback. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones averaged 4.5 yards per carry against the Broncos, so there’s no telling how many yards Jackson might gain. Jackson’s also coming off of one of his best passing performances of his career. He’ll need to protect the football, but he should be able to lead Baltimore to the win in this one.
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