NFL Best Bets Week 10

By Roy Burton   November 14, 2021 

NFL Best Bets Week 10

NFL odds have a number of surprising developments to react to ahead of the NFL Week 10 slate of games, including the Los Angeles Rams bolstering their roster once again, this time by adding Odell Beckham Jr. The Carolina Panthers brought home a familiar face, signing free agent quarterback Cam Newton. 

Week 9 proved to be a historically bad week for NFL Favorites. Five teams entered last weekend as underdogs of five points or more and won outright. That tied for the most five-point-plus underdogs winning straight up in a single week in the last 30 seasons. 

For the year, Underdogs sport an against the spread mark of 75-55-1. They’re 58-80 straight up, which is the second-best record through nine weeks since 2000. In Week 9 alone, Underdogs posted a 10-4 record against the spread, with eight of those covers coming on the road. 

NFL Bye Weeks continue in Week 10, with four teams getting to enjoy a free weekend. Off this week are the Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, and Houston Texans. NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions navigates through all of the Week 10 NFL lines.

Some early season surprises have affected Futures bets, with some teams seeing their stocks rising. Key injuries hamper several playoff hopeful teams in big matchups. Despite all this uncertainty, though, NFL Week 10 features a number of actionable lines and totals to bet this weekend. Here’s a look at five of the best bets to follow for Week 10.  

NFL Best Bets Week 10

Game Bet
Browns at Patriots Best Bets Under 45/-105 (PointsBet)
Buccaneers at Washington Best Bets Washington +10/-120 (WynnBet)
Eagles at Broncos Best Bets Philadelphia Moneyline +125 (PointsBet)
Chiefs at Raiders Best Bets Over 52/-110 (BetMGM)
Rams at 49ers Best Bets Rams -4/-105 (WynnBet)

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

Best Bet: Under 45/-105 (PointsBet)

The Cleveland Browns play the New England Patriots in this important AFC matchup of playoff hopefuls. Both teams enter with 5-4 records, and the winner of this contest will be in the driver’s seat of the AFC Wild Card race. The Browns bullied the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9, picking up an important victory, while the once again. 

The Browns (5-4, 5-4 ATS) got back on track with a 41-16 rout of the Cincinnati Bengals as 2-point road underdogs. But the big news for the Browns this week was Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton landing on the COVID-19 list. Chubb is reportedly vaccinated, so he could play as long as he produces two negative tests within 24 hours of each other. Chubb’s possible replacement, D’Ernest Johnson, rushed for 146 yards and a score on 22 carries in a 17-14 win over the Denver Broncos in Week 7.

Although the team broke out for 41 points last week, three of those scores came thanks to 60-plus yards plays, including a 99-yard pick-six. That’s not easily replicated week to week. Cleveland scores touchdowns in the red zone at a 54.8 percent clip, but uses the league’s highest average drive length to get there. Running the ball and long drives chew up the clock, which supports an Under play.

The Patriots (5-4, 5-4 ATS) are riding a three-game winning streak after posting back-to-back wins away from home over the Los Angeles Chargers and Carolina Panthers. New England’s been comfortable on the road all season, posting a 4-0 record outright and a 3-1 mark against the spread. But they’ve struggled at home, going 1-4 straight up with a 2-3 against the spread mark at Gillette Stadium so far this season. 

New England’s defense has carried the team during this recent stretch. The Pats D surrenders the sixth-fewest red zone touchdowns, and allows a red zone TD percentage of just 52 percent, which is eight-best in the NFL. But the offense remains conservative with rookie Mac Jones at the helm. Jones ranks 19th in yards per attempt and 25th in air yards per completion. He’s likely to checkdown once again in this one, considering Cleveland’s pressure defense. 

The Under is 8-3 in the Patriot’s last 11 games at Foxborough.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team

Best Bet: Washington +10/-120 (WynnBet)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers play the Washington Football Team in this matchup of NFC conference rivals at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. Both of these teams enter this Week 10 contest coming off their Byes. The Bucs and Washington also both lost their previous games before getting the week off. Tampa Bay remains tied with the Buffalo Bills for the best odds to win this year’s Super Bowl

The Buccaneers (6-2, 3-5 ATS) had the Bye to dwell on their most recent performance, a 36-27 loss at New Orleans. In that one, Tampa Bay played an uncharacteristically sloppy game, committing 11 penalties and turning the ball over three times. Last season, the Bucs lost before the Bye as well, then rattled off eight wins in a row en route a Super Bowl Championship. 

The Bucs have yet to cover any of their road games so far this season, going 2-2 straight up in those contests. And although the Bucs have covered all three double digits spreads they’ve seen this season, each of those came at home. 

Washington (2-6, 1-7 ATS) has struggled to find any semblance of consistency this season. Injuries and ineffectiveness make this season’s 2-6 record far more daunting than last season’s 2-7 start. In 2020, Washington won five of their final seven games to grab the NFC East crown.

Once in the playoffs, Washington gave the Bucs the best run for their money in the postseason. The 31-23 victory for Tampa Bay proved to be the most competitive of the Bucs’ playoff games in their run to the Super Bowl. Brady outduel Heinicke in what was his breakout performance, one where he threw for 306 yards and a score, while also running for 46 yards and a score. 

While the Bucs average a league-high 32.5 points per game, the team puts up just 24.5 points per game on the road. What’s more, Washington ranks top-10 in pressuring the quarterback and knockdowns per pass attempts, which a positive metrics when facing Brady.

The Bucs enter 0-4 against the spread on the road, and teams favored by double digits are 1-5-1 against the spread over the last two weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos

Best Bet: Philadelphia Moneyline +125 (PointsBet)

The Philadelphia Eagles play the Denver Broncos in this non-conference matchup at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado. The Eagles defense struggled to contain another quarterback and it resulted in yet another home loss this season. The Broncos, meanwhile, surprised the league with their upset victory in Dallas. 

The Eagles (3-6, 4-5 ATS) ran up 176 rushing yards and two scores against the Chargers last Sunday, but couldn’t contain LA’s Justin Herbert in the 27-24 loss. This continued Philly’s strange trend of struggling to win at home. The Eagles are 0-4 straight up in Philadelphia, but 3-2 as a road team. Philly sports a plus-7.4-scoring margin on the road, which ranks seventh-best in the league. 

Despite the recent loss of Miles Sanders, Philly’s continued to cultivate a run-oriented offensive attack. The Eagles have run up at least 100 yards in all but two games this season, and they’re facing a Denver defense that’s struggled against the run this season. The Broncos are 1-4 this season when surrendering more than 86 rushing yards. 

The Broncos (5-4, 5-4 ATS) enter coming off a surprising 30-16 rout of the Dallas Cowboys as a 10-point road underdog last Sunday. Although Denver’s hanging around in the AFC West race with their 5-4 record, four of those wins have come against teams with a combined 9-24 record. 

Denver’s struggles against the run make this a concerning matchup for the Broncos. The defense has allowed 5.1 yards per carry over the last three games, the second-highest figure in the NFL. 

The Broncos might have issues protecting Teddy Bridgewater this week, considering the state of their offensive line. Guard Graham Glasgow suffered what looked to be a major leg injury last Sunday, and the team was already without its left tackle Garett Bolles. In addition, the Broncos lost tight end Albert Okwuegbunam to injury as well. 

Denver’s 2-5 straight up in its last seven home games.

Kanas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Best Bet: Over 52/-110 (BetMGM)

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Las Vegas Raiders in this important matchup of AFC West rivals. The Chiefs found a way to win at home against the Green Bay Packers, while the Raiders floundered on the road against the Giants. Despite their recent troubles, the Chiefs still sport the third-best Futures Odds to win the AFC

The Chiefs (5-4, 2-7 ATS) put back-to-back wins together for the first time this season following their 13-7 victory over the Green Bay Packers. Although the frustrating offensive issues continue to linger, the defense seems to have stiffened of late. The Chiefs D has held opponents to under 20 points in three of the last four weeks, winning each of those games. 

The caveat to Kansas City’s defensive resurgence is that it’s come against middling offenses. The Chiefs held Washington, the Giants, and an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers team to low scoring outputs. The Raiders are a different animal altogether. 

The Raiders (5-3, 4-4 ATS) have scored over 30 points in three of their four home games this season, and they’re looking to attach a Kansas City defense susceptible to big plays. Las Vegas turned the ball over three times in their loss to the New York Giants, including a game-sealing fumble by Derek Carr. If they clean up those turnover concerns, they’ll be in good shape. 

The Raiders will have to put up points in this one, if history holds. Las Vegas has allowed 35 points per game to the Chiefs in their last six matchups, allowing no fewer than 28 in any of those games. 

The trends seem to favor the Over in this one. The Over is 4-1 in Kansas City’s last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous contest. The Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two clubs in Las Vegas. And the Over is 10-2 the Raiders’ last 12 games at home. The last two matchups between these clubs have resulted in 66 and 72 points respectively.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Best Bet: Los Angeles -4/-105 (WynnBet) 

The Los Angeles Rams play the San Francisco 49ers to wrap up the NFL Week 10 slate of games from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Both teams come to his one after disappointing losses in Week 9. The Rams squandered an opportunity against a Tennessee team missing its top offensive performer, while the 49ers did the same, only against an Arizona squad missing their top three players. LA sits atop the rankings for 6- and 7-win teams. 

The Rams (7-2, 4-5 ATS) will try to snap a four-game losing streak against the 49ers when they meet in San Francisco on Monday night. LA’s defense, which allowed just 194 total yards in Week 9’s loss to the Titans, could see Von Miller join the fray this week. Couple that with San Francisco losing tackle Mike McGlinchey, and the Niners offense could be in some trouble. 

The 49ers (3-5, 2-6 ATS) are a 1-5 both straight up and against the spread in their last six games this season. Their defense is allowing 26.3 points per game over that span, and the offense doesn’t seem to have the firepower to stick with Los Angeles despite the recent return of George Kittle. 

San Francisco’s struggles at home this season are well documented. The Niners are 0-4 straight up and against the spread in Santa Clara this year. Actually, San Francisco is 1-11 straight up at home since winning the NFC title game there against Green Bay in 2020. That lone win, though, came against the Rams. 

LA is 5-1 straight up in their last six road games and 10-5 against the spread in their last 15 games against NFC teams. The Rams are 10-3-1 against the spread in their last 14 games following a loss, including a 26-17 win in Seattle following their Week 4 loss to Arizona.

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