NFC Win Total Predictions

What do Tom Brady and Kathy Hochul have in common? Aside from the fact that they both had eventful weeks, their teams are expected to lead the NFL in wins in the upcoming season.

And this is strange, because last we checked the Bucs (Brady’s team) went out in the first full round of the playoffs, while the Buffalo Bills (who Hochul is building a new stadium for, much to the chagrin of reasonable New York taxpayers) fell victim to the Kansas City Chiefs in that very same round.

For those who have forgotten, the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals were the two teams that made it to the Super Bowl earlier this year. But their over/under win totals are not the highest.

That distinction belongs to Buffalo and Tampa Bay, who ended last season with losses. The Bills went out in overtime against the hypertalented Kansas City Chiefs and the Bucs went out earlier that same day on one of the best football playoff weekends one could ever imagine. 

Also, both won their respective divisions, Buffalo with an 11-6 record in the AFC East and Tampa Bay with a 13-4 mark in the NFL South.

But the Rams were 12-5 to tie Dallas, Kansas City and Tennessee for the second-best record in the entire NFL, finishing only behind the 13-4 Bucs and Green Bay Packers.

Seems logical that Tampa and perhaps even Green Bay would be favored to have the most wins again, but football is the most wagered-upon sport in America, and the sports books are trying to get equal action on both sides when they set their preseason over/under win total props.

We are coming off a week in which NFL teams held summer mini-camps, so there was a lot of news to digest for pigskin fans, many of whom could really care less about the LVI-PGA feud in golf, the upcoming NBA draft or the goings on in that 162-game marathon known as baseball.

To them, the upcoming start of summer means we are one season closer to the only season that matters: Pro football season. 

And if you want to be a sharp, as we explained how to do in a column last week, you are going to want to parlay as many of these over/under totals as possible and build yourself a bet that will withstand 18 weeks of adventures, bye weeks included.

So let’s have a looksee at where these over/unders are coming in, and why. And we have reached out to four veteran NFL writers, Barry Wilner of the Associated Press, Gary Myers of Sports Illustrated, Dan Wetzel of Yahoo Sports and Nate Davis of USA Today for their picks. 

We shall start today with the NFC, and tomorrow we will break down the AFC:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over/under win total: 11 ½. The biggest story of the offseason was Brady’s retirement Feb. 1 and his unretirement on March 13, and one of the second-biggest stories was Brady’s $375 million deal to call football on television for Fox Sports (mamas, teach your kids how to throw a football, marry a Brazilian and speak with clear diction). We still do not know whether Rob Gronkowski will be on the receiving end of Brady’s TD passes, but should it matter? 

The Bucs played from behind because of early mistakes in their playoff loss to the Rams and had to play catch-up, then left too much time on the clock and watched Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp complete two long pass plays to set up the winning field goal as time expired. It was an epic game between two great teams, and the Bucs are returning just about everyone with the exception of coach Bruce Arians, who has been replaced by promoted defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. The Bucs’ first-month schedule is brutal with games against the Cowboys, Saints, Packers and Chiefs, and later they’ll have the Rams in the Super Bowl rematch, plus the Cardinals, Steelers and 49ers all on the road. That is eight super-tough games, hence the 11 ½ line that is 1 ½ fewer than their 13 wins last season.

Wilner’s pick: Over.

Myers pick: Over.

Wetzel’s pick: Under.

Davis’ pick: Over.

Green Bay Packers: Over/under win total: 10 1/2. Props to ownership and the front office for trying to put all the Aaron Rodgers drama behind them as early as possible, which is why giving Rodgers a $150 million, three year-extension in March was prudent. Everything from retirement to a trade was on the table, but now the fans and the organization have the peace of mind of knowing that Rodgers plans to finish his career in the green and gold. That kind of stability should serve the Packers well as they try to overcome the bitterness from their 13-10 loss to San Francisco at Lambeau Field when the 49ers scored 10 unanswered points in the final 5 minutes and won on a field goal by Robbie Gould as time expired. 

The Packers were the top seed but had a glaring weakness on special teams that the 49ers capitalized upon. Locking up Rodgers and improving that facet were the top two offseason priorities, and they drafted three wide receivers among their 11 picks, with 4th-round pick Romeo Doubs from Nevada a return specialist who brought back a punt 80 years on his first-ever collegiate play. The schedule has them rotating into four games against teams from the AFC East, the league’s weakest last season in terms of total wins and losses. Tough road games are at Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Philadelphia.

Wilner’s pick: Over.

Myers pick: Over.

Wetzel: Over.

Davis’ pick: Over.

Los Angeles Rams: Over/under win total, 10 ½. Why the defending champions have a number lower than the Bucs and Packers is a function of something, diminished expectations, perhaps? No, silly, it is their schedule against not only the 49ers and Cardinals twice within the division, but also being matched against the AFC West with road games at Kansas City and the L.A. Chargers, and also having Buffalo, Dallas Green Bay (at Lambeau) and Tampa Bay (at Brady’s house) on the slate. Good for NFL television ratings, bad for Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. 

At +1400, Stafford is ranked in a tie for eighth in MVP futures markets. Kupp is +7500. No defensive player has won NFL MVP since Lawrence Taylor in 1986, and before that it was Alan Page in 1971. Can Aaron Donald end that trend? He is +30000 at FanDuel.

Wilner’s pick: Over.

Myers pick: Over.

Wetzel’s pick: Over.

Davis’ pick: Under.

Dallas Cowboys: Over/under win total, 10 1/2. Dak Prescott was the quarterback of a team that went just 5-3 at home and 7-2 on the road, fattening up their NFS East-leading record by going 6-0 in a weak division. The return of DeMarcus Lawrence from a broken foot, combined with the expected maturation of First Team All-Pro and Defensive Rookie of the Year Micah Parsons, who had 13 sacks, and cornerback Trevon Diggs (NFL-leading 11 interceptions), should bolster a defense that was already strong, with their point differential of plus-172 second in the NFL only to Buffalo’s 194. 

The Cowboys averaged a league-leading 407 points per game and lead the NFL in turnover differential at 14, so should Mike McCarthy be doubted all that much for having the benefit of a cupcake in-division schedule last season? Four of the Cowboys’ five losses were to very good teams, and the last defeats at home against were by 3 points apiece. Open with Brady’s Bucs and have to play the Rams, Packers and Titans on the road.

Wilner’s pick: Under.

Myers pick: Over.

Wetzel’s pick: Under.

Davis’ pick: Under.

San Francisco 49ers: Over/under win total, 9 1/2. The NFC West was the NFL’s toughest division last season, and the Niners will again have to play the Rams and Cardinals twice, and so their win total has been placed exactly where it was last season: 10. Second-year quarterback Trey Lance is listed ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo on the depth chart, and teammates raved at mini-camp last week about the confidence he has been showing – a trait he displayed at North Dakota State when he was recruited as a linebacker and insisted on competing to be quarterback. 

The Niners have had a different leading rusher for five seasons, and time will tell whether third-round draft pick Tyrion Davis-Price of LSU supplants Elijah Mitchell during the preseason. After defeating the Cowboys and Packers on the road in the playoffs, San Francisco fell to the Rams 20-17 by allowing L.A. to score the game’s final 6 points, their last chance ending in an interception. Their schedule includes home games against the Chiefs and Tampa Bay Bucs, but they also have what should be cupcake games against the Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins, which means that if they can win a majority of their divisional games they should go over if they can develop chemistry on offense with the new starting QB.

Wilner’s pick: Over

Myers pick: Over.

Wetzel’s pick: Over.

Davis’ pick: Over.

Philadelphia Eagles: Over/under win total, 9 ½. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been getting rave reviews for the work he has been putting in during his offseason workouts. Hurts, 23, led the Eagles to the postseason in his first year as a full-time starter in 2021, throwing for 3,144 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions while leading all quarterbacks in rushing yards (784) and rushing touchdowns (10). But the Eagles had a rushing-heavy offensive scheme, something they would like to balance out as their QB has an extra year of maturation under his belt. Their wild-card loss to Tampa Bay was lopsided, and there are no guys named Brady on their schedule this year. Their toughest non-conference game is against Tennessee but will be at home, and as always how they fare in the division will be crucial. They surrendered 92 points (!) in their two losses to the Cowboys, and 293 points in their other 15 games combined. So you might say they need to bring some of that defensive consistency to their two games against Dallas, the first coming at home Oct. 16 heading into their bye week.

Wilner’s pick: Over.

Myers pick: Over.

Wetzel’s pick: Over.

Davis’ pick: Over.

Arizona Cardinals: Over/under win total, 9 ½. Why such low expectations for a team that won 11 games last season? Especially after a draft-night deal with the Ravens to acquire Marquise Brown to reunite him with quarterback Kyler Murray? ESPN’s Bill Barnwell ranked their offseason as worse than every team except Atlanta and Seattle, though most of his critiques for financially related. 

Murray’s happiness is a key, as he removed Cardinals references from his social media accounts amid conjecture that he could return to playing baseball. Folks were pretty high on this team when they opened 7-0, but losses in four of their final five games and a 34-11 loss to the Rams in the wild-card game made them the second half of the season’s biggest underachievers. Visit the Rams and Bucs in two of their first five games, and also close the regular season against the Bucs. How they fare in their non-conference games against the AFC North will make or break their chances of beating this O/U number.

Wilner’s pick: Under.

Myers pick: Under.

Wetzel’s pick: Over.

Davis’ pick: Under.

Minnesota Vikings: Over/under win total, 8 1/2. Coach Kevin O’Connell is incorporating many of the play calls and terminology he employed when he was running the Rams, and quarterback Kirk Cousins has resorted to using flash cards to keep it all straight, so it seems we should expect the learning curve to be a little steep as the Vikings transition from Mike Zimmer’s old system. 

The team was never above .500 last season yet finished second in the NFC Central largely because the Bears and Lions were so dreadful. But they did have a home victory against Green Bay and non-conference wins against the Chargers and Steelers, and this season their schedule includes games against teams from the AFC East and the weak NFC East, with a home game against Dallas on Nov. 20 looking like their most important game if they can be above .500 going in. That relatively easy strength-of-schedule is why this number is at 9 for a team that made a coaching change coming off an 8-win campaign.

Wilner’s pick: Over.

Myers pick: Over.

Wetzel’s pick: Under.

Davis’ pick: Under.

New Orleans Saints: Over/under win total, 8 1/2. Jameis Winston was seen limping during mini-camp as he continues to recover from a torn ACL suffered seven games into last season, but coach Dennis Allen expects him to be ready for mini-camp. Winston threw for 1,170 yards, 14 touchdowns and three interceptions last season and has always been highly-regarded but never considered an elite QB. 

First-round pick Chris Olave and newcomer Jarvis Landry (an LSU product) give the Saints a terrific receiving corps to supplement a defense that allowed fewer points than only six other teams. Allen, who moves up from defensive coordinator, has had big success with the Saints’ D but is somewhat of an unknown commodity as an offensive innovator. After just missing the wild-card round despite winning their final game, New Orleans will play six of their first nine games at home, and the three-week stretch that appears most daunting is vs. the Rams, 49ers and Bucs heading into their bye week Dec. 12.

Wilner’s pick: Over.

Myers pick: Under.

Wetzel’s pick: Under.

Davis’ pick: Over.

Washington Commanders: Over/under win total, 8 1/2. Well, at least they have a name now that cannot possibly offensive to anyone. Or in this hyper-PC day and age is that expecting too much? Whatever the case, the controversy over Jack Del Rio’s Jan. 6 comments will not go away in the nation’s capital, which coach Ron Rivera is going to have to manage while also trying to improve upon a 7-10 season that included a four-game winning streak that was immediately followed by four losses, two each to Dallas and Philly, to kill their chances in the NFC Least, which was dreadful last season. 

The over/under number is a product of that divisional weakness, along with a non-conference slate against teams from the AFC South, with the Tennessee game in D.C. Carson Wentz has played his way out of Indianapolis and Philadelphia but gets a new start, which he clearly needed after being a lightning rod for criticism.

Wilner’s pick: Under.

Myers pick: Under.

Wetzel’s pick: Under.

Davis’ pick: Under.

New York Giants: Over/under win total, 7 1/2. Take it from a Giants’ fan: They will likely fall short. OK, that is a little tough, but folks in New York who cheer for Big Blue had about all they could take on Week 2 last year when they lost on the final play of the game – after a do-over – against Washington. A 1-5 start led to three wins in five games and a sliver of hope because every team in the division was terrible, but losses over the final six weeks of the season ended a 4-13 season that was brutal in every regard. 

Joe Judge is out and Brian Daboll is in, and most of the usual suspects return on both sides of the ball with the exception of cornerback James Bradburry, who was released in a cost-cutting move. The schedule includes five of their first six games and seven of their first 10 at home, and the toughest road game aside from Dallas is at Tennessee. If Saquon Barkley can ever put together two or three decent rushing games, you never know, especially in the NFC Least.

Wilner’s pick: Under.

Myers pick: Under.

Wetzel’s pick: Under.

Davis’ pick: Under.

Detroit Lions: Over/under win total is 6 ½: Only a tie kept them from beating out the Jacksonville Jaguars for the worst record in the NFL last season, and this win total over/under assumes that they can more than double their win total from a year ago. Second-year coach Dan Campbell will again be calling the plays on offense after he took over that role midseason last year. He is highly regarded among his peers and among NFL front office personnel, but does he have a lot to work with? 

The Lions used the second pick in the draft to select Michigan defensive lineman Aidan Hutchinson, who many regarded as the best pure athlete available. He should help a defense that was the fourth-worst in the NFL in terms of yards allowed. The schedule includes this quirk: Every single game starts at 1 p.m. local time, with the exception of Thanksgiving, when they play at 12:30 p.m. 

Wilner’s pick: Under.

Myers pick: Under.

Wetzel’s pick: Under.

Davis’ pick: Over.

Chicago Bears: Over/under win total is 6 ½. Coach Matt Eberflus got into hot water for allowing contact drills during an offseason team activity day in May, adding to an inordinate amount of negative offseason stories around the NFL. A 3-2 start last season was followed by five straight losses, dooming the season, and Chicago finished with the third lowest point total in the NFC and made several offseason changes.

Fired were general manager Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy, and Eberflus was brought in from the Colts, where he was defensive coordinator and had the only NFL defensive unit to be ranked in the top-10 in scoring, run defense and takeaways each of the past two seasons. The Bears have to open against San Francisco and Green Bay and have tough road games at Dallas and New England. They had the league’s sixth-best defense but an anemic offense that Eberflus must address immediately.

Wilner’s pick: Under.

Myers pick: Over.

Wetzel’s pick: Under.

Davis’ pick: Under.

Carolina Panthers: Over/under win total is 5 1/2. They used their first-round pick on an offensive lineman, Ickey Ekwonu, to provide more protection to Sam Darnold, who was sacked 35 times in 12 games and threw only nine touchdown passes. That kind of offensive anemia takes more than one player to change, and we will have to wait until the regular season to see what they will get out of star RB Christian McCaffrey, who will be held out of preseason games as a precautionary move after he played only 10 games the past two seasons. 

Four straight losing seasons reflect more than a slump. Can you believe they were a Super Bowl team just seven years ago? First four games are vs. the Browns, Giants, Saints and Cardinals, so a 3-1 or 4-0 start could happen with some luck. But they are in a very tough conference and must lay a road game against the Rams in addition to their two division matchups with Brady and the Bucs.

Wilner’s pick: Under.

Myers pick: Over.

Wetzel’s pick: Over.

Davis’ pick: Under.

Seattle Seahawks: Over/under win total is 5 ½. Some teams have the misfortune of playing in a very tough division, and now they have traded quarterback Russell Wilson to Denver for five draft picks and three players, including QB Drew Lock, who will compete with Geno Smith for the starting job. This was a middle-of-the-pack offensive team and a below average defensive team last season when they had four victories in their final six games to make their final record (7-10) a little more respectable. 

The 5 ½ number is a projection that they will take a step back without Wilson. They will see Wilson in the first Monday Night Football game, and the furthest East they will travel is to Detroit. Both New York teams will play them in Seattle, and that right there should account for at least two wins if the Giants and Jets are as horrible as they were a year ago.

Wilner’s pick: Under.

Myers pick: Over.

Wetzel’s pick: Under.

Davis’ pick: Under.

Atlanta Falcons: Over/under win total, 4 1/2. This is the lowest projected win total for any NFC team, which is a bit weird because the Falcons won seven games last season, but is a reflection of the Falcons getting very little in return when they dealt quarterback Matt Ryan to the Colts for a third-round pick. The trade was made primarily for financial reasons. Marcus Mariota, who has not been a regular since 2018 when he was with the Raiders, takes over the play-calling duties. 

Priority number one on defense is improving a pass rush that produced only 18 sacks, 11 fewer than any other NFL team. All of the edge rushers on defense have been replaced, and that kind of turnover also contributed to the oddsmakers setting this number so low. They get AFC Central opponents for their non-conference games, and that is not a strong division.

Wilner’s pick: Over

Myers pick: Over.

Wetzel’s pick: Under.

Davis’ pick: Under.